I can't draw flies

[mdhunter]

Wow, for a guy with 10-13 pts all over the west Lady Luck sure did nothing for me this year. I guess I way over played my application strategy hand and even turned in a drawn tag in NV as I was so convinced better things were coming my way. Anyone else crash and burn with their draws this year?

 

[glass eye]

I pretty much cashed in all my chips in CA & AZ over the past few years so I'm in the point building phase and don't expect much, except for Gould's in AZ sitting on 24 points.

 

[dirtclod Az.]

I live in Az. and hunt ugly areas no one wants to hunt and Leftover tags.
OTC. is my best friend...Never have had a bonus point,don't know
how to get one.Been through hunter safety 4 times.they like my donations $.

 

[dirtclod Az.]

By the way,I Can Draw Flies.Hook me up with Mashed potatoes
fully laced with Garlic and Red pepper Flakes,lots of salt and
a few cold ones.Done Deal!! FLIES. Ha,Ha!!

 

[ccc23454]

I average around 1/10 tags applied but still manage to shot atleast 3 elk and 3 deer each year and a lope or 2. Thankfully we have otc/res generals/unlimited tags to fall back on. Cant complain the 1 tag drawn this year is a gila bull with rifle so still fairly lucky i guess. Never understood point game...i like to hunt to much

 

[LopeHunter]

Why the hurry to turn in the NV tag? What were you cumulative odds for the tags you failed to draw? For example, if applied for a tag that was 10 in 100 odds last year and one that was 1 in 100 then you had around 11 in 100 odds to draw a tag depending on a lot of variables can never know in advance. Is good to know expected outcomes even if has fuzziness in the calculation.

I hear people implying they have terrible luck though when they list their choices is not unusual to see they are experiencing the expected luck for the tags they attempted to draw. I have not drawn a bighorn ram tag in up to 25 years of applying in several states. My expected non-resident cumulative odds to draw one of those bighorn tags is still only around 50% so I am not really unlucky nor should I be feeling snakebite. Ram tags are hard to draw and I do not feel like scratching a check nor tackling the unlimited units. I drew two mountain goat tags and a moose tag that were all much sooner than expected would draw.

I have missed on tags that ended up being well over 50% odds though I feel my luck is not bad for my choices as apply for over 40 tags while point-saving another 30 application choices each year.

Drew two tags for 2019. One tag was 1 in 24 odds. Had been applying for almost 30 years. Slightly bad luck on that tag longterm. The other tag was 1 in 8 this year and was 1 in 10 for me last year when did not draw though had been applying for 15 years in that state and varied my choice most years. Probably better than average luck to draw that tag. I went 0 for 38 on other 2019 tags, though, that had odds from 1 in 3 up to worse than 1 in 1000.

I could have drawn WY limited entry pronghorn in main draw and added a leftover tag if so motivated. Could have drawn WY deer in a general region. Kansas deer is a given if picked a choice. I could have scrapped using point savers and would have drawn another 10 or so tags depending on choices. With my current strategy, I end up with a tag or two most years. If zero, I pick up a tag outside the draw. As long as my health is holding, I will go on a hunt in the autumn and usually is a big-quality tag I am hunting. If not high-quality then is high-opportunity with good harvest success.

 

[BuzzH]

Pretty rough for my wife and I this year as well considering the number of tags we apply for.

I did draw WY sheep, but my odds were 78% with my points. Bought a buck deer tag OTC in Montana and drew 2 elk tags and a pronghorn tag in Wyoming.

I'll still hunt 4 states this year, but like a lot of people, I have a metric shit ton of points in a lot of states, and I'm not drawing much with them.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

I did draw WY sheep, but my odds were 78% with my points.

What unit are you hunting? Using the pre-64?

 

[mdhunter]

Why the hurry to turn in the NV tag? What were you cumulative odds for the tags you failed to draw? For example, if applied for a tag that was 10 in 100 odds last year and one that was 1 in 100 then you had around 11 in 100 odds to draw a tag depending on a lot of variables can never know in advance. Is good to know expected outcomes even if has fuzziness in the calculation.

I hear people implying they have terrible luck though when they list their choices is not unusual to see they are experiencing the expected luck for the tags they attempted to draw. I have not drawn a bighorn ram tag in up to 25 years of applying in several states. My expected non-resident cumulative odds to draw one of those bighorn tags is still only around 50% so I am not really unlucky nor should I be feeling snakebite. Ram tags are hard to draw and I do not feel like scratching a check nor tackling the unlimited units. I drew two mountain goat tags and a moose tag that were all much sooner than expected would draw.

I have missed on tags that ended up being well over 50% odds though I feel my luck is not bad for my choices as apply for over 40 tags while point-saving another 30 application choices each year.

Drew two tags for 2019. One tag was 1 in 24 odds. Had been applying for almost 30 years. Slightly bad luck on that tag longterm. The other tag was 1 in 8 this year and was 1 in 10 for me last year when did not draw though had been applying for 15 years in that state and varied my choice most years. Probably better than average luck to draw that tag. I went 0 for 38 on other 2019 tags, though, that had odds from 1 in 3 up to worse than 1 in 1000.

I could have drawn WY limited entry pronghorn in main draw and added a leftover tag if so motivated. Could have drawn WY deer in a general region. Kansas deer is a given if picked a choice. I could have scrapped using point savers and would have drawn another 10 or so tags depending on choices. With my current strategy, I end up with a tag or two most years. If zero, I pick up a tag outside the draw. As long as my health is holding, I will go on a hunt in the autumn and usually is a big-quality tag I am hunting. If not high-quality then is high-opportunity with good harvest success.

The hurry to turn back in the NV tag was a direct result of my over confidence in pulling an AZ tag. I won't bore you with the details but I shot myself in the foot on this deal, lol.

 

[Alabama]

I thought you could turn in a NV tag up to 30 days before the season? I bet you're beating yourself up now! We all make mistakes and hindsight is 20/20.

I had worse luck than you, I don't have as many points but I had a ton of apps this year and drew ZERO tags. I had over 60% odds for an elk tag in AZ, 40% odds for an elk tag in CO, and tons of sheep, deer, and elk tags ranging from <0.1% (MT sheep), to around 20% (NM elk and deer). I was more worried about drawing 2 or more tags than drawing none. I'm pretty good with numbers and my cumulative odds were in the 90% range (unless demand increased dramatically which in some states the data is not out yet). Sometimes you're just unlucky. Maybe lightning will strike with AZ deer but no charges yet on the CC.
I'll still be heading west to hunt OTC or pick up a leftover. I love it way too much to ever skip a year.

 

[BuzzH]

What unit are you hunting? Using the pre-64?

Unit 2...probably use my 7-08.

Saving the pre-64 for a Montana sheep if I ever draw.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Unit 2...probably use my 7-08.

Saving the pre-64 for a Montana sheep if I ever draw.

Congrats on the sheep tag!
Matt

 

[marshman]

Cannot seem to get lucky in my own state to save my ass! Sitting on 20 points in multi pal categories for deer, elk, sheep, moose you name it.
Hope i draw some of these before I kick the bucket!

 

[oleefish2]

I did not draw my WY res elk tag for the 1st time in many years, 1st, 2nd or 3rd choice. About 14 years ago I was 1 of 3 people that did not draw a tag in area 48. They issued 296 tags and 299 people put in for them.