Just back home from RMEF Elk Camp. Four days of good time interacting with the best volunteers I know of. And, meeting with some companies who are big supporters of RMEF, including the guys at GoHunt.com.
They gave me the "keys to building" for a few hours. I got to look around and test drive the new enhancements they are adding in January. Lots of good stuff to add to what I think is the best unbiased unit-by-unit data out there.
The enhancements I focused on are two parts; draw odds and filtering (search criteria).
I have used, and still use, most every research source that is out there. I have gotten rid of some,as the only thing worse than no information is incorrect information. Something I hold as important as tag applications and research requires as much data as I can get and the best information I can get.
When it comes to draw odds, we are have tried to figure out a way to predict our probability in states that look at more than one choice before they move on to the next app. And we have all tried to predict our probability based on our bonus points and the bonus points of those who are competing with for tags. Being a CPA, I consider myself a "Charlie Daniels of the spreadsheet." I can use Excel with the best of them. Yet, I've never been able to figure out a manner that allows me to calculate my probabilities caused by the two complications cited above. Like all the other research services, I've pretty much just looked at 1st choice only and known that if the state looks at more than one choice, my odds are probably a bit better than shown.
GoHunt, as part of their new Insider service, has contracted with PhD statistician who can solve the problems I mentioned above. They have written the code that takes the historical data, by residency, by point total, for all of your choices, and can calculate the probability of drawing.
The searchability feature, or as they call it Filtering V.2, is also a great feature. The more data that state collects, the more you can filter your search. Some states do not collect a lot of data, as they do not have mandatory reporting (MT). Some have a ton of data, with NV probably collecting the most.
Here is how I was able to use both of these features. Some background for the experiment. My son has 15 NV bonus points for elk. I wanted to see what his draw odds would be based on criteria he would be looking for when burning that many points.
I entered the following search criteria based on data NV collects. I wanted units with;
60%+ success rate
50%+ bulls with 6+ points or more
40%+ bulls have 50" main beams or longer
Since NV collects that data for all hunts, the system sorted it and gave me the eight units that met my criteria. NV gives you five choices and looks at all five of your choices before going on to the next application. I was able to input five choices in whatever order I wanted. I did that based on the filtering results I got from the search criteria above. It then provided the odds of drawing.
My home state of MT does not collect much information, so the filtering in MT is not going to be as indepth as it is for a state with tons of data, like NV. But, even the most basic data to search is still a huge help in any state research.
This is something I have been looking for since I started the out-of-state application game in the early 1990's. I've never been able to do it myself and I've never found it in a research service. Rather, I have accepted the odds we all find; something like, "Note - these odds are simplified to reflect first choice applications only." Something that reads to me as, "Note - these odds could be completely inaccurate, or somewhat accurate, proceed at your own risk.
I suspect when this is rolled out next month, GoHunt will have a smash hit on their hands. If you already subscribe and your get their unit-by-unit information, their species-by-species information, precipitation data, etc. you find that very helpful. They do not provide unit recommendations, which is something I am thankful for. They provide a huge amount of data and let you use that for forming your own strategy.
Promo code to follow in the next week or so.
