Do Not Pass On First Day What You Would Be Happy To Shoot On The Last: A Refutation

[HiMtnHntr]

If I pass it on the first day there’s a dang good chance I’m passing it on the last day.

 

[elkhuntinfool78]

Well maybe I’m and odd one here but I actually uphold to the don't pass on the first day motto. I know the type of animal I'm looking for way before I get in the field and wether I meet those requirements the first hour or last hour of my hunt then I'm taking the opportunity.

That said I usually end the season with an unfilled deer tag.

 

[Sask hunter]

OTC elk I’ll never pass a legal elk. Other animals it just depends sometimes a guy needs a sausage buck later in the season. You know the good thing about coyotes and geese is there is no passing lol

 

[El Jason]

The nice thing about cow tags is there is seldom a philosophical dilemma, other than are you killing one in a spot that’ll suck to get it out of.

 

[Irrelevant]

Buy a couple of Drahthaars and go find some chukars. I think it’d be right up your alley.

Or GWPs... Lol

 

[Hunt&FishCO]

I take this as a guideline; but not a rule. Historically I’ve always hunting OTC/General so I have reasonable standards/expectations on those hunts and shoot the first legal buck/bull I see.

But here’s the variables:
- How many of ‘X’ species have I harvested
- How many ‘X’ years before I get this tag again.
- How much time do I have
- Home much money/time has been invested on this tag

Sheep/Moose - I’ve never had a tag; I will likely get few tags to hunt these in my lifetime. I will hold out for “Trophy” example until 50% through the hunt, and then it’s anything legal

Deer/Elk: I hunt these across multiple states every year. Each tag I usually have <4 days to hunt. Day 1: Trophy, Day 2 Anything w/ Antlers, Day 3 & 4 Brown it’s Down

Applied: Had a forky cross my path opening day this last Saturday. Let him pass (and the saying in this title went through my mind); 20 min later I shot a tank…and was proud of my patience.

 

[2rocky]

When I took my kids with me, it was an "any legal buck" hunt.

 

[BAKPAKR]

I can’t think of hardly any times I’ve regretted passing up an animal.

I regret passing up a 20+” whitetail with my bow early one season that, for some reason (possibly because of where it was?), I thought was a not very tall mule deer. Once the lightbulb clicked, my shot opportunity had passed. My tag was good for MD or WT.

In a reverse situation, I kind of regret shooting a really nice whitetail late one season. I still had an elk tag after I got my buck so I continued to be in the woods. I spotted a raghorn bull bedded in an opening a long ways off and made a stalk. When I got within shooting range, the “bull” had transformed into a really big non-typical mule deer. That was something I had never shot but my tag was already hanging on a whitetail.

As a side note — I think I need to brush up on species identification.

 

[Rack Daniels]

Just depends what you want. Some people hunt for the challenge to harvest a mature animal. Some for meat. I don’t pass on any legal elk. I don’t pass on any archery antelope. Last year i passed on 15-20 deer and ended up not killing a buck. I’ve passed on 3 or 4 this season and if the same deer keep walking by my tree, I may not shoot a buck UNTIL the last day. Last year I coulda took a “meat buck” at last light, last day and didn’t- this year I likely will. However if one does not show, I will not lose sleep over letting a baby deer live.

 

[Hem]

I regret passing up a 20+” whitetail with my bow early one season that, for some reason (possibly because of where it was?), I thought was a not very tall mule deer. Once the lightbulb clicked, my shot opportunity had passed. My tag was good for MD or WT.

In a reverse situation, I kind of regret shooting a really nice whitetail late one season. I still had an elk tag after I got my buck so I continued to be in the woods. I spotted a raghorn bull bedded in an opening a long ways off and made a stalk. When I got within shooting range, the “bull” had transformed into a really big non-typical mule deer. That was something I had never shot but my tag was already hanging on a whitetail.

As a side note — I think I need to brush up on species identification.

I questioned shooting a wt buck the first few minutes of a four day hunt. I had hiked a couple miles to a sniper bluff over river bottom. Watched the buck mosey in range just before legal shooting. I just couldn't make up my mind, thinking about how much time I have to hunt. Something clicked and I dropped him at 200. My best whitetail, probably ever. It was a good call.

 

[Nameless Range]

Good responses. I think they only fortify the point that the adage in the OP, aside from having a rythmic verse to it, is not a good heuristic at all.

So, I gave the LLM this prompt: "In addition to using the attributes I gave you in my original question, I would like you to formalize a logical equation with these additional attributes, assuming they are all weighted equally (I know they aren't):

• Willingness to let a tag go unfilled
• Preference points used, which affects the probability of ever getting to do it again
• An empty freezer. Hunters hunt for meat so want to fill it
  
  
• Expected meat quality
• Desire to hunt more because it is fun and your spouse has chores for you if you come home
• The fact that the last day is the day you are most likely to find your target animal relative to any other day
• The level of impulsivity within a hunter
• The level of stress a hunter is experiencing over drawing a rare tag.That stress would end if the hunter harvested his buck
• The level of regret a hunter may or may not feel with after passing on a buck
• The desire to harvest something with children present
• The amount a hunter lets the sunk cost fallacy influence their decision"
  
  Here's the output:
  
  Let tt = days left to hunt
  Let xx = the buck currently encountered (size, meat quality, antler score, etc.)
  Let DD = complete set of decision factors
  
  Define the following functions and weights:
  • WmeatWmeat: Weight/importance assigned to filling the freezer
  • WqualityWquality: Expected meat quality from buck xx
  • Wlet_goWlet_go: Willingness to let tag go unfilled (higher = more willing to pass)
  • Wpref_ptsWpref_pts: Weight of preference points used (higher = less likely to repeat hunt soon)
  • WfunWfun: Enjoyment of continuing the hunt (higher = prefers not to end early)
  • WspouseWspouse: Chore avoidance value for staying in the field
  • Ptarget(t)Ptarget(t): Probability of seeing a dream buck on future days (tt), remembering this probability spikes on the last day
  • WimpulseWimpulse: Level of impulsivity (higher = more likely to shoot now)
  • WstressWstress: Relief from stress over drawing a rare tag if harvest happens
  • WregretWregret: Avoidance of regret for passing on a reasonable buck
  • WkidsWkids: Value of harvesting with children present
  • Wsunk_costWsunk_cost: Degree to which sunk cost fallacy impacts the hunter
  • U(x)U(x): Total utility of harvesting current buck xx, formed from weighted sum of the above
    
    Utility Calculation:
    
    U(x)=Wmeat ⋅ MeatNeeded + Wquality ⋅ MeatQuality(x) −Wlet_go + Wpref_pts⋅PrefPointsUsed + Wfun⋅DesireToContinue + Wspouse⋅ChoreAvoidance + Wimpulse⋅Impulsivity + Wstress⋅StressRelief + Wregret⋅AvoidRegret + Wkids⋅ChildrenPresent + Wsunk_cost⋅SunkCostInfluenceU(x) = Wmeat⋅MeatNeeded + Wquality⋅MeatQuality(x) − Wlet_go + Wpref_pts⋅PrefPointsUsed + Wfun⋅DesireToContinue + Wspouse⋅ChoreAvoidance + Wimpulse⋅Impulsivity + Wstress⋅StressRelief + Wregret⋅AvoidRegret + Wkids⋅ChildrenPresent + Wsunk_cost⋅SunkCostInfluence
    
    Expected Future Utility
  • EUfuture=Ptarget(t) ⋅ U(DreamBuck) + (1−Ptarget(t))⋅ U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck)EUfuture = Ptarget (t) ⋅ U(DreamBuck) + (1−Ptarget(t))⋅ U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck)
    
    Where:
  • U(DreamBuck)U(DreamBuck) = hypothetical utility of getting your dream buck
  • U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck)U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck) = expected utility from not shooting or getting a lesser buck in future
    
    Harvest the current buck if:
    
    U(x)≥EUfutureU(x)≥EUfuture
    
    
    
    
    So there you have it. It, not really being anything. Thinking broadly though, perhaps the greatest flaw in "Don't pass on the first day what you'd be happy to shoot on the last", is that none of us know when our last day to hunt will be. Hope everyone is filling their tags. Or not. It's really fine either way.
    
    

 

[TheTone]

I’ve passed a couple bucks over the years that sting a bit. One was a 6x6 whitetail that I half convinced myself wasn’t really that big and I was still looking for a nice mule deer I jumped in the same canyon a week earlier. I got a second look at the whitetail a few days later and started looking at tine length and knew I screwed up.

I passed on a 170 ish mule deer 4 or 5 years ago because I was too confident that if he lived another year he would be truly big, plus we already had a freezer full of two elk. Really, really dumb move on my part. The landowner shot him a couple days later

I’ve had a couple close encounters with spike bulls that I probably could have killed if I was a little more excited and serious. It’s hard killing a spike for me in the first couple days of archery season, especially if other bulls are bugling

 

[Irrelevant]

Good responses. I think they only fortify the point that the adage in the OP, aside from having a rythmic verse to it, is not a good heuristic at all.

So, I gave the LLM this prompt: "In addition to using the attributes I gave you in my original question, I would like you to formalize a logical equation with these additional attributes, assuming they are all weighted equally (I know they aren't):

• Willingness to let a tag go unfilled
• Preference points used, which affects the probability of ever getting to do it again
• An empty freezer. Hunters hunt for meat so want to fill it
  
  
• Expected meat quality
• Desire to hunt more because it is fun and your spouse has chores for you if you come home
• The fact that the last day is the day you are most likely to find your target animal relative to any other day
• The level of impulsivity within a hunter
• The level of stress a hunter is experiencing over drawing a rare tag.That stress would end if the hunter harvested his buck
• The level of regret a hunter may or may not feel with after passing on a buck
• The desire to harvest something with children present
• The amount a hunter lets the sunk cost fallacy influence their decision"
  
  Here's the output:
  
  Let tt = days left to hunt
  Let xx = the buck currently encountered (size, meat quality, antler score, etc.)
  Let DD = complete set of decision factors
  
  Define the following functions and weights:
  • WmeatWmeat: Weight/importance assigned to filling the freezer
  • WqualityWquality: Expected meat quality from buck xx
  • Wlet_goWlet_go: Willingness to let tag go unfilled (higher = more willing to pass)
  • Wpref_ptsWpref_pts: Weight of preference points used (higher = less likely to repeat hunt soon)
  • WfunWfun: Enjoyment of continuing the hunt (higher = prefers not to end early)
  • WspouseWspouse: Chore avoidance value for staying in the field
  • Ptarget(t)Ptarget(t): Probability of seeing a dream buck on future days (tt), remembering this probability spikes on the last day
  • WimpulseWimpulse: Level of impulsivity (higher = more likely to shoot now)
  • WstressWstress: Relief from stress over drawing a rare tag if harvest happens
  • WregretWregret: Avoidance of regret for passing on a reasonable buck
  • WkidsWkids: Value of harvesting with children present
  • Wsunk_costWsunk_cost: Degree to which sunk cost fallacy impacts the hunter
  • U(x)U(x): Total utility of harvesting current buck xx, formed from weighted sum of the above
    
    Utility Calculation:
    
    U(x)=Wmeat ⋅ MeatNeeded + Wquality ⋅ MeatQuality(x) −Wlet_go + Wpref_pts⋅PrefPointsUsed + Wfun⋅DesireToContinue + Wspouse⋅ChoreAvoidance + Wimpulse⋅Impulsivity + Wstress⋅StressRelief + Wregret⋅AvoidRegret + Wkids⋅ChildrenPresent + Wsunk_cost⋅SunkCostInfluenceU(x) = Wmeat⋅MeatNeeded + Wquality⋅MeatQuality(x) − Wlet_go + Wpref_pts⋅PrefPointsUsed + Wfun⋅DesireToContinue + Wspouse⋅ChoreAvoidance + Wimpulse⋅Impulsivity + Wstress⋅StressRelief + Wregret⋅AvoidRegret + Wkids⋅ChildrenPresent + Wsunk_cost⋅SunkCostInfluence
    
    Expected Future Utility
  • EUfuture=Ptarget(t) ⋅ U(DreamBuck) + (1−Ptarget(t))⋅ U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck)EUfuture = Ptarget (t) ⋅ U(DreamBuck) + (1−Ptarget(t))⋅ U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck)
    
    Where:
  • U(DreamBuck)U(DreamBuck) = hypothetical utility of getting your dream buck
  • U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck)U(NoHarvestOrLesserBuck) = expected utility from not shooting or getting a lesser buck in future
    
    Harvest the current buck if:
    
    U(x)≥EUfutureU(x)≥EUfuture
    
    
    
    
    So there you have it. It, not really being anything. Thinking broadly though, perhaps the greatest flaw in "Don't pass on the first day what you'd be happy to shoot on the last", is that none of us know when our last day to hunt will be. Hope everyone is filling their tags. Or not. It's really fine either way.
    
    View attachment 392615

I actually really like it. But I need to know what my range of values is for each entry. You could also ask it to create an Excel spreadsheet for you to post, then we could all run our own math.

 

[Nameless Range]

I actually really like it. But I need to know what my range of values is for each entry. You could also ask it to create an Excel spreadsheet for you to post, then we could all run our own math.

Here, ya go!


Two files have been created for you:

1. A spreadsheet template (hunter_decision_parameters.csv) listing all parameters and weights for your decision model, so you can input your own scores for each hunt scenario.
2. An instructions/formula sheet (hunter_decision_formulas.csv) providing example formulas to implement in Excel for calculating overall utility (U(x)U(x)) and expected future utility.

You can now open these CSV files in Excel, enter weights or values as you prefer, and use the formulas provided to calculate your decision outputs for any hunting scenario. Let me know if you would like guidance on customizing or expanding this spreadsheet further!

 

[bigsky2]

I posted this buck on another thread recently, but it’s a perfect example of passing up an animal on the first day that you’d shoot on the last. My dad passed up this buck on the first morning of his Colorado hunt a few years ago. He called me while I was driving down there to meet him and said “I’m watching a buck that I should probably be shooting.” I told him if he’d be happy with the buck then he shouldn’t pass it up just because I wasn’t there yet. The following morning we went out together and found a mid 190’s typical. We ended up trying to get that buck for the rest of the hunt without ever seeing him again. On the last morning we were watching the same hillside where we’d seen the 190’s buck when this buck decided to show himself again. You don’t get to see 190’s typicals in Montana, and if my dad had shot this buck that first morning, we never would have got to see that buck or the 30” buck we saw during the hunt.

 

[NR_Hunter]

I am in total agreement with the premise of the OP.

Why would I shoot what I would be happy with on the last day on the first day? It’s not even the last day yet!