Colorado Sheep/Goat/Moose Draw Results Thread

[Deleted member 28227]

Draw summaries are posted.... depressing how good my odds were and didn’t draw lol 33% and 75%

Colorado Parks and Wildlife

Colorado Parks and Wildlife is a nationally recognized leader in conservation, outdoor recreation and wildlife management. The agency manages 42 state parks, all of Colorado's wildlife, more than 300 state wildlife areas and a host of recreational programs. CPW issues hunting and fishing...

cpw.state.co.us

 

[Desk Pop]

Crap...Here is the math unless I entered something wrong in my calculator:

SHEEP
- 3554 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 5138 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years

GOAT
- 2021 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 3895 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years

I wish people still had to front tag fees. I am 36 years old and am at 3-15 on sheep points and will more than likely never draw in my lifetime despite putting in for lower end units...unless they start squaring weighted points or go to straight preference or a preference mix.

 

[hearteater]

Crap...Here is the math unless I entered something wrong in my calculator:

SHEEP
- 3554 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 5138 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years

GOAT
- 2021 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 3895 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years

I wish people still had to front tag fees. I am 36 years old and am at 3-15 on sheep points and will more than likely never draw in my lifetime despite putting in for lower end units...unless they start squaring weighted points or go to straight preference or a preference mix.

I agree. It really sucks they changed the system.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Crap...Here is the math unless I entered something wrong in my calculator:

SHEEP
- 3554 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 5138 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years

GOAT
- 2021 NR applicants who could have drawn this year
- 3895 additional NR who will be able to draw in 3 more years

I wish people still had to front tag fees. I am 36 years old and am at 3-15 on sheep points and will more than likely never draw in my lifetime despite putting in for lower end units...unless they start squaring weighted points or go to straight preference or a preference mix.

Goat tags PP only apps v total 2019 - 2020. Essentially no difference for NR or R. The corona virus essentially didn't have an appreciable change on how NR applied for goat tags.




"I wish people still had to front tag fees. I am 36 years old and am at 3-15 on sheep points and will more than likely never draw in my lifetime despite putting in for lower end units...unless they start squaring weighted points or go to straight preference or a preference mix."

Honestly I think for MSG Colorado has the best system in the country... if I was god I'd get rid of the weighted points and make it 5pts pref points then straight lottery, but I think the system is pretty darn good. You have to have skin in the game... but it doesn't just destroy the odds for everyone except for the guys that got in on the system the first year it started. The elk and deer system is wildly unfair for the top units. Getting rid of fronting tag fees increased revenue and at the end of the day the point is to generate more dollars to support our herds so I'm all for it.

 

[npaden]

Just did the math on my goat application and I think it was a little worse draw odds than I expected. Still over 3% for a billy goat is pretty good odds.

Sad thing was that the only tag drawn was a guy at 3 +4. Luck is still involved for sure.

 

[Khunter]

I had no reservation whatsoever to put in for a nanny and he great odds that come with it...

 

[Desk Pop]

Goat tags PP only apps v total 2019 - 2020. Essentially no difference for NR or R. The corona virus essentially didn't have an appreciable change on how NR applied for goat tags.

View attachment 139394


"I wish people still had to front tag fees. I am 36 years old and am at 3-15 on sheep points and will more than likely never draw in my lifetime despite putting in for lower end units...unless they start squaring weighted points or go to straight preference or a preference mix."

Honestly I think for MSG Colorado has the best system in the country... if I was god I'd get rid of the weighted points and make it 5pts pref points then straight lottery, but I think the system is pretty darn good. You have to have skin in the game... but it doesn't just destroy the odds for everyone except for the guys that got in on the system the first year it started. The elk and deer system is wildly unfair for the top units. Getting rid of fronting tag fees increased revenue and at the end of the day the point is to generate more dollars to support our herds so I'm all for it.

Things are a bit different on the NR side of things. The new system for applying wipes out most chance people have to draw. Not so with residents.

For sheep:

Residents had an 80:1 ratio of applicants to tags (22716:248)

NR had 400:1 ratio (11214:28)

NR got 28 tags ... to put that in perspective, last year alone there were 42 residents who drew sheep tags but didn't even hunt. The less invested, the less people care and the more likely they are to put their tag in a drawer and forget about it...meanwhile guys like you and I, residents and nonresidents, are patiently waiting for a chance to get after it.

It is what it is, and I can't complain because I killed a goat there in 2006 before it was the sexy thing to do, but I wouldn't complain if more preference than a 1:1 weighted bonus point was given for longevity in the draw. There is no right answer, and every new guy wants no points and guys who have invested years want preference or bonus squared, but the NR situation is drastically different to the resident situation because the new system makes it so that it becomes more likely than not for guys who are even all the way at the top, over 20+ years in to never draw unless they live until they are 159 years old, or COVID19 kills waaaaay more people.

 

[smw110136]

Things are a bit different on the NR side of things. The new system for applying wipes out most chance people have to draw. Not so with residents.

For sheep:

Residents had an 80:1 ratio of applicants to tags (22716:248)

NR had 400:1 ratio (11214:28)

NR got 28 tags ... to put that in perspective, last year alone there were 42 residents who drew sheep tags but didn't even hunt. The less invested, the less people care and the more likely they are to put their tag in a drawer and forget about it...meanwhile guys like you and I, residents and nonresidents, are patiently waiting for a chance to get after it.

It is what it is, and I can't complain because I killed a goat there in 2006 before it was the sexy thing to do, but I wouldn't complain if more preference than a 1:1 weighted bonus point was given for longevity in the draw. There is no right answer, and every new guy wants no points and guys who have invested years want preference or bonus squared, but the NR situation is drastically different to the resident situation because the new system makes it so that it becomes more likely than not for guys who are even all the way at the top, over 20+ years in to never draw unless they live until they are 159 years old, or COVID19 kills waaaaay more people.

Where did you find the number of residents who drew, but didnt hunt? Genuinely curious. Thanks.

 

[Dsnow9]

Things are a bit different on the NR side of things. The new system for applying wipes out most chance people have to draw. Not so with residents.

For sheep:

Residents had an 80:1 ratio of applicants to tags (22716:248)

NR had 400:1 ratio (11214:28)

NR got 28 tags ... to put that in perspective, last year alone there were 42 residents who drew sheep tags but didn't even hunt. The less invested, the less people care and the more likely they are to put their tag in a drawer and forget about it...meanwhile guys like you and I, residents and nonresidents, are patiently waiting for a chance to get after it.

It is what it is, and I can't complain because I killed a goat there in 2006 before it was the sexy thing to do, but I wouldn't complain if more preference than a 1:1 weighted bonus point was given for longevity in the draw. There is no right answer, and every new guy wants no points and guys who have invested years want preference or bonus squared, but the NR situation is drastically different to the resident situation because the new system makes it so that it becomes more likely than not for guys who are even all the way at the top, over 20+ years in to never draw unless they live until they are 159 years old, or COVID19 kills waaaaay more people.

Just curious about where you got those stats like the one about people that didn’t hunt?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Things are a bit different on the NR side of things.

So it would be better to use the elk system?

As you said there are 28 NR tags for sheep. 149 NR with max points so it would take 6 years to clear those folks out... next level 117, 102, 84, etc.

If it were a preference point system it would take 20 years just to clear out folks above 15 points today and that person with 15 points would have 35 points when they drew. The next 5 year block would take 26 years... they would have 61 pts.
Yeah... if you have 10 sheep weighted points now under a preference point system as a NR it would take 51 years to draw.
If 2007 at age 11 your parent had put you in for sheep points, under a preference point system you wouldn't draw until you were 75 years old. If your parents had waited until you were 12... 83.
The preference point systems and squared points system are unfair for everyone but the max point holders. I don't consider someone with 15 years of application a new guy.
A NR who has put in for 15 years per my example has 0 chance of drawing a NR sheep tag with pref points.

The supply v. demand on MSG tags is so horrific that really only hybrid lottery systems are fair... with fair being defined as an applicant having a chance at actually drawing during their lifetime.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Just curious about where you got those stats like the one about people that didn’t hunt?

https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/RockyMountainBighornSheep/2019StatewideRockyMtnBighornSheepHarvest.pdf

Assuming it's accurate, I bet it is or very close, that's a very good rate... actually this may be estimated, it has been 87-88% for the last 6 years... that seems to consistent to me.

Prince of wales bear is 73% hunt
Afognak elk less than 50% hunt

Wyoming elk
NR- 90% hunt
R- 74% hunt

WY sheep
100% both NR and R

WY Goat
78% - NR
93.8%- R

 

[smw110136]

https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/RockyMountainBighornSheep/2019StatewideRockyMtnBighornSheepHarvest.pdf

View attachment 139414

Assuming it's accurate, I bet it is or very close, that's a very good rate.

Thanks

 

[Oak]

https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/RockyMountainBighornSheep/2019StatewideRockyMtnBighornSheepHarvest.pdf

View attachment 139414

Assuming it's accurate, I bet it is or very close, that's a very good rate... actually this may be estimated, it has been 87-88% for the last 6 years... that seems to consistent to me.

Prince of wales bear is 73% hunt
Afognak elk less than 50% hunt

Wyoming elk
NR- 90% hunt
R- 74% hunt

WY sheep
100% both NR and R

WY Goat
78% - NR
93.8%- R

A grain of salt with these stats: they include reissued tags on the tag side. There were only about 309 sheep licenses available in 2019, which I believe included BSAP. There were only 299 available in the draw.

 

[Desk Pop]

So it would be better to use the elk system?

As you said there are 28 NR tags for sheep. 149 NR with max points so it would take 6 years to clear those folks out... next level 117, 102, 84, etc.

If it were a preference point system it would take 20 years just to clear out folks above 15 points today and that person with 15 points would have 35 points when they drew. The next 5 year block would take 26 years... they would have 61 pts.
Yeah... if you have 10 sheep weighted points now under a preference point system as a NR it would take 51 years to draw.
If 2007 at age 11 your parent had put you in for sheep points, under a preference point system you wouldn't draw until you were 75 years old. If your parents had waited until you were 12... 83.
The preference point systems and squared points system are unfair for everyone but the max point holders. I don't consider someone with 15 years of application a new guy.
A NR who has put in for 15 years per my example has 0 chance of drawing a NR sheep tag with pref points.

The supply v. demand on MSG tags is so horrific that really only hybrid lottery systems are fair... with fair being defined as an applicant having a chance at actually drawing during their lifetime.

We have a different definition of fair. I think it is fair that length of education is generally commensurate with higher wages. I think it is fair that people get raises often determined by how long they have done a good job for their company, not that they got hired yesterday. I think it is fair that doctors get paid more than McDonald's workers. They worked harder for longer.

I'd be fine with bonus squared or preference. I'd highly prefer bonus squared, but I am clearly ok with the current system or I would not have put in for almost 20 years. Bonus squared everyone has a chance, but those most invested have an exponentiallly better chance. Colorado is essentially a straight 1:1 bonus point state after 3 years for MSG, they just have an ass backwards way of doing the math. Still, you are rewarded with longevity, which is great.

We define fair differently. That's fine. I tend away from the socialistic attitude that we should all get the same despite the amount of time and money invested. I am not a socialist nor do I carry that attitude into what I think are ideal big game draw systems.

Colorado has a decent system for MSG. The system is what it is and I will continue to invest until I die or draw, but my point of the post was how Colorado's recent changes have resulted in over twice as many applicants in the past 3 years than the 20 years before that...and those will sink in next year. Their goal is to make money. It worked. Good for them. I hope they put it to good use and it puts more sheep and goat on the mountain. That doesn't mean it is not a gut punch to people who have invested a couple decades into the system.

It will always be a debate. Guys invested want more for being invested and newbies want the same chance as those who have been writing thousands of dollars in annual checks to Colorado since they were 18.

Right now NM and ID are sexy to new hunters because they have no point system. How long will that continue to make the most money and sense to those states? Until the odds become so crappy with new newbies every year that people stop applying and they are forced to get more money by changing systems that reward longevity. Arizona did same thing but in reverse, to an extent. It is all fluid and states can change either way. Both Colorado systems work for them until they stop, then they will be changed. Colorado changed how they do everything 3 times in the span of as many years. It was a classic bait and switch to get new people. 1. Front all tag fees (original) 2. Front no tag fees and pay almost nothing to apply (bait) 3. Buy a license for $82 and give us $300 dollars to put in for MSG for waaaayyy worse odds (switch). It worked perfectly.

 

[npaden]

We have a different definition of fair. I think it is fair that length of education is generally commensurate with higher wages. I think it is fair that people get raises often determined by how long they have done a good job for their company, not that they got hired yesterday. I think it is fair that doctors get paid more than McDonald's workers. They worked harder for longer.

I'd be fine with bonus squared or preference. I'd highly prefer bonus squared, but I am clearly ok with the current system or I would not have put in for almost 20 years. Bonus squared everyone has a chance, but those most invested have an exponentiallly better chance. Colorado is essentially a straight 1:1 bonus point state after 3 years for MSG, they just have an ass backwards way of doing the math. Still, you are rewarded with longevity, which is great.

We define fair differently. That's fine. I tend away from the socialistic attitude that we should all get the same despite the amount of time and money invested. I am not a socialist nor do I carry that attitude into what I think are ideal big game draw systems.

Colorado has a decent system for MSG. The system is what it is and I will continue to invest until I die or draw, but my point of the post was how Colorado's recent changes have resulted in over twice as many applicants in the past 3 years than the 20 years before that...and those will sink in next year. Their goal is to make money. It worked. Good for them. I hope they put it to good use and it puts more sheep and goat on the mountain. That doesn't mean it is not a gut punch to people who have invested a couple decades into the system.

It will always be a debate. Guys invested want more for being invested and newbies want the same chance as those who have been writing thousands of dollars in annual checks to Colorado since they were 18.

Right now NM and ID are sexy to new hunters because they have no point system. How long will that continue to make the most money and sense to those states? Until the odds become so crappy with new newbies every year that people stop applying and they are forced to get more money by changing systems that reward longevity. Arizona did same thing but in reverse, to an extent. It is all fluid and states can change either way. Both Colorado systems work for them until they stop, then they will be changed. Colorado changed how they do everything 3 times in the span of as many years. It was a classic bait and switch to get new people. 1. Front all tag fees (original) 2. Front no tag fees and pay almost nothing to apply (bait) 3. Buy a license for $82 and give us $300 dollars to put in for MSG for waaaayyy worse odds (switch). It worked perfectly.

Getting an education vs. being born at the right time to start applying for draws in Western states are completely different things. Someone applying for some of these preference point states today have close to a zero chance of ever drawing a tag even if they apply their entire life. They could apply for 50 years and not draw a tag, but someone who started 20 years ago is pretty much guaranteed a tag in the next couple years. That doesn't seem to have much to do with fairness anyway you slice it.

Your bottom scenario is most likely skewed the opposite way. I think more states will end up going to more of a pure lottery type drawing on the MSG type tags. The demographics have changed and there are way more people applying for these tags than there ever will be animals to fill them. If you do the math there is no way to get the current number of people through the system because there just aren't enough animals to go around. If you make it based on longevity that doesn't increase the number of animals, there still aren't enough to go around.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I am not a socialist nor do I carry that attitude into what I think are ideal big game draw systems.

Keep that kind of stupid BS out of a good thread.

1. Lottery versus Bonus pt versus Pref: Pref points has been proven to only "be fair" if tags can be draw with 5pts or less. Then those system fall apart. If only the first group of people in the door ever can draw, like literally ever, not have a way better chance but are actually the only ones, then the system doesn't work aka isn't fair.

2.That is not why the changes were made. The upfront payment was dropped, as I have said, at @Oak has said, and as a bunch of other members who went to and/or streamed the commission meetings have said... because the process of administering that process was very expensive.

3. The no fee year was an anomaly that had to do with how and when fees could be added. It was not a government ploy for more money.

100% agree with @npaden

Your bottom scenario is most likely skewed the opposite way. I think more states will end up going to more of a pure lottery type drawing on the MSG type tags. The demographics have changed and there are way more people applying for these tags than there ever will be animals to fill them. If you do the math there is no way to get the current number of people through the system because there just aren't enough animals to go around. If you make it based on longevity that doesn't increase the number of animals, there still aren't enough to go around.

Interesting article from 1999

New preference point hunting system being implemented in state of Colorado

Hunters who have been waiting for their turn to take a shot at a Colorado bighorn sheep, mountain goat or moose may have a better chance at drawing a tag for one of these coveted hunts during the 2001 season.

www.craigdailypress.com

The change in the preference point system comes due to concern by resident hunters that the proportion of nonresident hunters drawing limited licenses, particularly in quality units, has increased to a level where the system is no longer fair to resident hunters.

“Residents were upset over the fact that nonresidents were drawing licenses after applying for only five or six years when some residents were waiting 15,” said Malmsbury.

“It is very unlikely that we’re going to get into a similar situation with elk and deer because in most units it only takes a few years to draw an elk or deer license,” said Malmsbury.

 

[Oak]

It seems like we want more bighorn sheep.

 

[Dsnow9]

It seems like we want more bighorn sheep.

I really thought that link was going to go to the raffle... Almost got me for a fourth round of tickets!

 

[Oak]

I really thought that link was going to go to the raffle... Almost got me for a fourth round of tickets!

There may be an embedded sales pitch.

 

[Dsnow9]

There may be an embedded sales pitch.

Haha, I’ll have to give it a listen working in the garden tonight. Round 4 here I come!?!?!?