Calculation - Odds of drawing a tag?

[ImBillT]

What are the odds that I will draw a 50% hunt this year? 50%.

What are the odds that I drew a 50% hunt last year? 50%

What are the odds that I drew a 50% hunt last year and will do so again this year? 25%. Why? Because you don’t know if I drew last year.

I drew a 50% odds tag last year, what are the odds that I will draw the same 50% tag this year? 50%. Last year was irrelevant to this year, it has nothing to do with the question.

Last year I drew a 50% tag, what are the odds that I will draw a 50% both last year and this year? 50%. I changed the question to make last year’s results relevant, but because I already know the outcome, it eliminated half of the possible outcomes that needed to be examined.

 

[Big Fin]

Fun to read this stuff.

There is no predictive manner/methodology when the applications made to each unit, and the total number of applications, changes every year. Prior numbers give a relative index of demand. That's all. I long ago gave up on the idea that I can accurately predict the odds of drawing a tag based on last year's information. Yeah, sometimes with undersubscribed units, you can predict. And if I apply in glory units, I can accurately predict my odds of NOT drawing a tag are very high.

More important for my applications are the multi-year trends measured against many criteria. Yes, prior applications matters, but not nearly as much as multi-year trends. Knowing what the majority of applicants are doing is often more revealed by the application services or the media outlets with published "unit recommendations." Once you cross off all those from your list, you have removed a large part of the sample size, giving you some opportunity to analyze and make "slightly educated guesses."

I don't try to kid myself. My applications are just that, "slightly educated guesses" benefited by the fact that new data manipulation sources allow me to slice and dice historical information in ways not previously practical, thus my heavy reliance on goHUNT. goHUNT does not recommend units. They provide insight and a general overview to units. In addition to their strategy articles quickly schooling me on changes and new ideas I may not have considered, the most important value to me is that their data manipulation tools are designed to let you make your own decisions and sort by your own criteria, over many years. I want to do my own analysis and let others follow the path advised by a half-dozen application services and outlets providing recommendations. I subscribe to all those services, some for reading pleasure, but mostly for valuable counter-intel.

Some of the tags we draw is due to some good luck and some is just a result of the volume of applications we submit. The majority of tags we draw is due to hours of time invested looking at long-term patterns, analyzing long-term changes in applicant behavior in response to the prior year information, and what people do at the suggestion of their "advisors." Most people only look at last year draw probabilities, thus the prior year probabilities are a somewhat predictable data set to use for projecting behavior of applicants in upcoming draws.

Once I have those trends evaluated, I wait to see what the research and application services come up with for the current year. I then adjust my applications accordingly, as the large blocks of applicants represented by that small handful application services can have a big impact on applicant behavior. By eliminating those "recommended units" I have a smaller universe to analyze, making prediction a slightly improved art (not a science).

I also feel that nothing can replace decades and miles stomping the landscapes I apply in. It gives me comfort to apply in places others avoid. You quickly realize, as some have recently pointed out in HT threads, that there are usually great animals to be had in most western public land units. Doing so just requires extra effort beyond what most will invest, fertilized with some favorable conditions and good luck along the way.

I hope the discussion keeps going. I enjoy reading how others approach their application strategy and compare those ideas to the rut I have fallen into over 25 years of multi-state applications.

 

[Aperventure]

So, seems your comfort level is, "Well, independent actions are involved so I will get no value in crafting an imperfect approach to provide an estimated outcome for the number of tags I am most likely to draw in the upcoming draws."

Interesting. And yet, Vegas often faces such uncertainty while looking at a series of independent events. Vegas is offering bets right now with odds for each NFL team to win the Superbowl to be played Feb 2020. How can they do that? Rosters are not set yet. The opponents are not known nor the order of the games at this point. Each game in the regular season is yet to be played. Each game is an independent event where no points or timeouts are carried over to the next game and there are only 3 outcomes: win, loss or tie. Players will be lost for the season. Might snow at a game or rain a lot. A lot is not known as we sit here in April trying to predict February. Those guys in Vegas setting odds must be losing a lot of money every year using such an imperfect approach.

patriots, clearly.

I appreciate the thoughts on the comfort level of imperfect approach. though I did not say it was of no value, so please don't make it seem like i did. I believe I said that it was logical and reasonable.

 

[nvpinstripe]

Limited access in WY can lead to real good success!

Couple deer we took last year on checkerboard public private.

 

[Elkdog]

Nerds

This!
LMAO

 

[AggieOutlaw]

since each are individual events, your odds are individual and can't be combined.

what are the odds when you flip a coin it lands on heads? 50%

what are the odds the next time you flip the same coin, it lands on heads? 50%

curious how wapatibob looks at it, I see the logic and agree that is reasonable. still, each are individual events.

I feel like you mean to say "independent" events. The probabilities can absolutely "be combined". The question is not "what's the probability of the next coin toss landing heads?" The question is: "given N coin tosses, what is the probability X will land heads?" This is a very simple calculation for independent events.

Bob's formula is correct.

 

[antelopedundee]

I pulled that stuff from my substantial internet notes database, I flunked bonehead math in college.

If the inverse of 2 is 1/2 then the inverse of .7188 is 1.39, no? Are you sure you mean inverse and not difference?

 

[antelopedundee]

since each are individual events, your odds are individual and can't be combined.

what are the odds when you flip a coin it lands on heads? 50%

what are the odds the next time you flip the same coin, it lands on heads? 50%

curious how wapatibob looks at it, I see the logic and agree that is reasonable. still, each are individual events.

Practically speaking your odds for each tag are 50:50 either you will draw or you won't.

 

[antelopedundee]

For Wyoming antelope it depends upon the area. You can access the drawing odds, but there is also more info available where you start with APPLY FOR LICENSES. From that you click on the linky for plan your hunt. From that page select species and after that go to area. Finally choose more info/details for the area and it gives you a lot more info than the drawing odds does. Also you can always ask F & G about specific draw results.

 

[ImBillT]

Practically speaking your odds for each tag are 50:50 either you will draw or you won't.

For any single flip that’s correct. The topic of the thread was related more to determining the probability of an event occurring at least once over a series of attempts. Bob’s formula was essentially correct. Aperventure was correct as well, but he was addressing a different question than Bob. The formula Bob used is often misinterpreted to mean that if I ever draw a tag, or already drew a tag then my odds of doing so afterward are now lower, which is in fact incorrect as Aperventure pointed out.

 

[antelopedundee]

For any single flip that’s correct. The topic of the thread was related more to determining the probability of an event occurring at least once over a series of attempts. Bob’s formula was essentially correct. Aperventure was correct as well, but he was addressing a different question than Bob. The formula Bob used is often misinterpreted to mean that if I ever draw a tag, or already drew a tag then my odds of doing so afterward are now lower, which is in fact incorrect as Aperventure pointed out.

The whole thing doesn't make much sense since the odds of drawing a tag in Wyoming have zilch to do with the odds of drawing a tag in New Mexico. Also there are Wyoming areas where depending on the circumstances you have no chance to draw an antelope tag and other areas where you're pretty much guaranteed a tag. I suppose as a mathematical exercise it's ok, but beyond that I don't see much value, at least to me. Others' MMV.

 

[ImBillT]

The whole thing doesn't make much sense since the odds of drawing a tag in Wyoming have zilch to do with the odds of drawing a tag in New Mexico. Also there are Wyoming areas where depending on the circumstances you have no chance to draw an antelope tag and other areas where you're pretty much guaranteed a tag. I suppose as a mathematical exercise it's ok, but beyond that I don't see much value, at least to me. Others' MMV.

50% odds in Wyoming, 10% in NM, 1% in AZ,

.5x.9x.99=.4455odds of not drawing any a single tag, or a 55.45% chance of drawing at least one. The numbers for the example were picked from thin air, but that’s how you would calculate it. Apply for more hunts makes your more likely to draw at least one tag.

It doesn’t matter if you flip one coin ten times, or ten coins simultaneously, the odds are the same, and they’re calculated the same way. If winning is defined as flipping at least one coin heads up, then flipping more coins, or flipping the same coin more times increases your odds of flipping one of them heads up at least once. The only difference in flipping coins or applying for hunts is that the probability of winning is not 50%. You just replace .5 with the odds of not drawing the tag.

As BigFin mentioned, we actually have no way of knowing THIS YEAR’S draw odds. We are all just calculating what happened in LAST YEAR’S draw. That’s where other strategies come in to play.

 

[npaden]

The whole thing doesn't make much sense since the odds of drawing a tag in Wyoming have zilch to do with the odds of drawing a tag in New Mexico. Also there are Wyoming areas where depending on the circumstances you have no chance to draw an antelope tag and other areas where you're pretty much guaranteed a tag. I suppose as a mathematical exercise it's ok, but beyond that I don't see much value, at least to me. Others' MMV.

I'm still waiting for someone to take me up on my offer to flip coins or roll dice for money. I'd even be willing to do a combination of coin flips and dice rolls if that made a difference. That would correspond with your example of the drawing in Wyoming and New Mexico not having anything to do with each other. You pick whatever random event sequence you want and I would be willing to put money on it if you let me do some of that bogus mathematical exercise stuff on it to figure the odds and then I will give you the payout options.

The 10 to 1 odds that you will flip a coin 10 times and not come up with a single heads is WAY slanted in my favor. The actual odds are 1 in 1,064. Try it a few times and see how long it takes to throw 10 coins on the ground and have it come up just one of either heads or tails. The math says it should take a while before you see it.

 

[AggieOutlaw]

I'm still waiting for someone to take me up on my offer to flip coins or roll dice for money. I'd even be willing to do a combination of coin flips and dice rolls if that made a difference. That would correspond with your example of the drawing in Wyoming and New Mexico not having anything to do with each other. You pick whatever random event sequence you want and I would be willing to put money on it if you let me do some of that bogus mathematical exercise stuff on it to figure the odds and then I will give you the payout options.

The 10 to 1 odds that you will flip a coin 10 times and not come up with a single heads is WAY slanted in my favor. The actual odds are 1 in 1,064. Try it a few times and see how long it takes to throw 10 coins on the ground and have it come up just one of either heads or tails. The math says it should take a while before you see it.

Won’t take as long as me drawing a sheep tag...give ya $1000 for that!

 

[antelopedundee]

For any single flip that’s correct. The topic of the thread was related more to determining the probability of an event occurring at least once over a series of attempts. Bob’s formula was essentially correct. Aperventure was correct as well, but he was addressing a different question than Bob. The formula Bob used is often misinterpreted to mean that if I ever draw a tag, or already drew a tag then my odds of doing so afterward are now lower, which is in fact incorrect as Aperventure pointed out.

Actually my post was intended to be TIC.

 

[npaden]

Won’t take as long as me drawing a sheep tag...give ya $1000 for that!

That's the problem! I don't have enough states to apply in for enough years to even get me up to a 20% chance of drawing a sheep tag!

Multiplying a bunch of .2% and .4% odds together really doesn't get you very far.

 

[antelopedundee]

50% odds in Wyoming, 10% in NM, 1% in AZ,

.5x.9x.99=.4455odds of not drawing any a single tag, or a 55.45% chance of drawing at least one. The numbers for the example were picked from thin air, but that’s how you would calculate it. Apply for more hunts makes your more likely to draw at least one tag.

It doesn’t matter if you flip one coin ten times, or ten coins simultaneously, the odds are the same, and they’re calculated the same way. If winning is defined as flipping at least one coin heads up, then flipping more coins, or flipping the same coin more times increases your odds of flipping one of them heads up at least once. The only difference in flipping coins or applying for hunts is that the probability of winning is not 50%. You just replace .5 with the odds of not drawing the tag.

As BigFin mentioned, we actually have no way of knowing THIS YEAR’S draw odds. We are all just calculating what happened in LAST YEAR’S draw. That’s where other strategies come in to play.

Has anyone taken the time to evaluate the odds and drawing results for one area over say 10 years to see how much they change or remain substantially the same? Obviously the more apps you put out the more likely you are to draw something, but that's just common sense and you don't need a formula to tell you that.

 

[npaden]

Has anyone taken the time to evaluate the odds and drawing results for one area over say 10 years to see how much they change or remain substantially the same? Obviously the more apps you put out the more likely you are to draw something, but that's just common sense and you don't need a formula to tell you that.

For the high demand areas the odds seem to just continue to go down for the most part.

There are some lower demand units in some states that really bounce around though. You really need to look at several years worth of odds to get a feel for it especially in units where there are just a few tags. In a state like New Mexico there are some units that bounce around up to even 100% draw odds some years then drop down to under 20%. Part of this is people "chasing" the odds. They look at the draw results and see that a unit had 80% or even 100% draw odds so they think it is a sure thing so they apply for it on their 3rd choice. The problem is there were only 2 or 3 nonresident tags and 20 or 30 other people noticed the same exact thing so they applied for that unit as well. What was 80% or 100% last year all the sudden drops to 10% or 20% this year. The next year people look at it and say that it wasn't really even a good unit to start with and with 10% or 20% draw odds there are a lot of other better units to apply for so all those people who only applied for it this year because of the high draw odds don't apply and suddenly the draw odds jump back up to 60% or 70%. You can try to time it with folks jumping in and out of those type units or just be aware and stay away from the years that it spikes due to the high draw odds from the previous year.

One technique that I use and I know some others do as well is looking at what the resident draw odds for the same unit I am applying for as a nonresident. There are generally more tags available to residents and with the larger sample size you get a lot less bounce in individual years drawing odds. Sometimes you can find some hidden gems where the resident odds are even lower than the nonresident odds. That's pretty unusual though. What you can see a lot more often are the units where residents are getting really good odds and nonresidents are getting really bad odds. That tends to tell me that the unit is overrated as the residents generally know what the good units in their state are as much as the online hunting application guides do.

Generally most people have things pretty well figured out but you can see some "lucky" units like was mentioned in the Idaho OIL drawing thread going right now.

I would for sure recommend not just looking at what last years odds happened to be when picking what unit to apply for.

My 2 cents. Nathan

 

[ImBillT]

^^^ Yep. I’ve definitely seen some cyclical odds on certain hunts in NM. I was planning to apply for one this year, but when I found that it was mentioned in GoHunt I decided that the odds probably wouldn’t cycle down this year. Just knowing that lots of other people had that unit pointed out to them rather than blindly wondering why the odds were poor two years in a row(assuming lots of people applied there this year) was worth the price of GoHunt to me.

 

[WapitiBob]

Has anyone taken the time to evaluate the odds and drawing results for one area over say 10 years to see how much they change or remain substantially the same?

Yes but I’m not saying where.