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  • Not sure if you saw this on Top Rut's website, they provide some good background info as to how they determine draw odds for NM. Looks like party apps and draw order are the biggest factors. I checked against Go Hunt which give generally lower odds compared to Top Rut.
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    AggieOutlaw
    Yes. I read that. Thanks

    I think Top Rut is being a little liberal with their estimates but maybe their model accounts for the errors made by applicants in party apps and improper order.

    I think dividing the total number of tags by total applications is a conservative lower bound for the probability. So I use that to manage my expectations
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