TheGrayRider
Well-known member
Arizona Draw Results for 2026 will probably post very soon. Good luck 
to all resident and nonresident applicants.
Interesting post from @ Deerhunter74 this week on Mountain Muleys Forum regarding odds to draw a 2025 Arizona bighorn sheep tag. (Reprinted without permission. Hope he doesn’t get upset.)
I accessed the 2025 draw statistics for sheep in AZ. Here are the data, in a nutshell. There were a total of 14,240 applicants in 2025 for bighorn sheep permits. 9,665 (approx. 68%) were residents and 4,575 (approx. 32%) were nonresidents. The drawing for successful applicants occurs in three passes - the first is for applicants with the most preference points, the second is random for each applicant's first and second choices, and the third pass is also random for each applicant's 3rd, 4th and 5th choices if any were selected. Obviously, for the few tags for 14,000+ applicants, no tags were awarded in the third pass. The first pass required 35 bonus points in 2025. It appears there were 14 residents and 5 nonresidents with 35 points that successfully drew tags. In the second pass, the random draw for the tags remaining after the 19 tags were drawn in pass 1, 87 residents drew tags and 7 nonresidents drew tags. The final box score was residents 101, nonresidents 12. Albeit 12 is a small number, the truth in advertising is achieved as the 12 nonresident tags do represent roughly 10% of the allocated tags. On the topic of bonus points in the random draw, the 7 nonresidents who drew random tags in pass 2 had 19, 11, 22, 21, 27, 28 and 13 bonus points, respectively. Thus, it appears the benefit of accruing bonus points is real. The distribution of bonus points for the successful resident applicants was from 1 bonus point to 34 bonus points. Statistically, applying as a nonresident for a sheep tag at $15 is not a great bet, but 7 nonresidents did win the lottery. There were 4 units where all the tags were awarded in the first pass, so if you applied for those units in pass 2 for random tags you were drawing dead. If a sheep hunt "costs" $10,000 to secure an outfitted hunt, and 7 nonresident tags are available which is expected in a normal year, there is $70,000 of cost which if each applicant increased their investment to the state or to a cooperative, an extra $20 per nonresident applicant would easily fund the hunts and the tag could come with a $10,000 voucher usable for an outfitted sheep hunt in Arizona. Food for thought. I did apply for sheep in Arizona in 2026 as a nonresident.
to all resident and nonresident applicants.Interesting post from @ Deerhunter74 this week on Mountain Muleys Forum regarding odds to draw a 2025 Arizona bighorn sheep tag. (Reprinted without permission. Hope he doesn’t get upset.)
I accessed the 2025 draw statistics for sheep in AZ. Here are the data, in a nutshell. There were a total of 14,240 applicants in 2025 for bighorn sheep permits. 9,665 (approx. 68%) were residents and 4,575 (approx. 32%) were nonresidents. The drawing for successful applicants occurs in three passes - the first is for applicants with the most preference points, the second is random for each applicant's first and second choices, and the third pass is also random for each applicant's 3rd, 4th and 5th choices if any were selected. Obviously, for the few tags for 14,000+ applicants, no tags were awarded in the third pass. The first pass required 35 bonus points in 2025. It appears there were 14 residents and 5 nonresidents with 35 points that successfully drew tags. In the second pass, the random draw for the tags remaining after the 19 tags were drawn in pass 1, 87 residents drew tags and 7 nonresidents drew tags. The final box score was residents 101, nonresidents 12. Albeit 12 is a small number, the truth in advertising is achieved as the 12 nonresident tags do represent roughly 10% of the allocated tags. On the topic of bonus points in the random draw, the 7 nonresidents who drew random tags in pass 2 had 19, 11, 22, 21, 27, 28 and 13 bonus points, respectively. Thus, it appears the benefit of accruing bonus points is real. The distribution of bonus points for the successful resident applicants was from 1 bonus point to 34 bonus points. Statistically, applying as a nonresident for a sheep tag at $15 is not a great bet, but 7 nonresidents did win the lottery. There were 4 units where all the tags were awarded in the first pass, so if you applied for those units in pass 2 for random tags you were drawing dead. If a sheep hunt "costs" $10,000 to secure an outfitted hunt, and 7 nonresident tags are available which is expected in a normal year, there is $70,000 of cost which if each applicant increased their investment to the state or to a cooperative, an extra $20 per nonresident applicant would easily fund the hunts and the tag could come with a $10,000 voucher usable for an outfitted sheep hunt in Arizona. Food for thought. I did apply for sheep in Arizona in 2026 as a nonresident.
