Application value per dollar

Bullshot

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There are a lot of questions from new hunters regarding whether this or that draw or points system is “worth it.” Actually, a lot if veteran hunters ask the same. Some people want to put in for one state/species. Some a few. Some put in for everything. Nobody likes to waste money though.

Even though the past couple years I’ve been lucky to have a bit bigger application budget. I’ve tried to get savvier on where to send my dollars, hoping to get more bang for the buck. This helps when comparing between potential choices and helps weed out lesser options. Pretty simply, I compare the “Cost per 1% Chance”. The math can get messy if you don’t correctly account for ALL nonrefundable fees, including base licences, stamps, CC fees and up-charges like “special” fees. You also need good data providing the ability to calculate odds. The results can be eye-popping, and are all over the map. But it does help clear the noise between different options, particularly with all the various (and often expensive) raffles out there.

Does anybody else use a similar strategy to help compare “apples to apples”?
 
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Sort of. I can’t apply everywhere, so the most important place to apply is the place I’m most likely to actually get to hunt that very year. From there it becomes an incalculably complex array of variables including tag cost, draw odds, desire to hunt there, trophy quality, experience quality, cost of getting there both in fuel and time etc. I apply for every species I would like to hunt in every state that I apply in because that gives me a much better value per dollar spent. My states would actually change if I was only focusing on a single species.
 
@ImBillT hit the bullseye. So many variables that differ for each person asking the question.

I am outlining some content on this idea. It is so dependent on many issues; species priority, available budgets of time/money, long-term/mid-term/short-term plans, fall back options you consider if you don't draw a limited-entry tag, etc. that I am struggling to present it in a manner that makes sense.

If someone has mule deer as a priority, some states will be greater value. If someone wants elk and intends to hunt ID as their fall back, it changes the entire strategy. If someone lives in Texas, they would be less likely to drive through all the good elk country in Colorado to hunt Idaho as OTC. If someone lives in Washington, the opposite is true.

If you are way behind on points and now at the career/life stage when you can hunt a lot, your valuation will be much different than the younger hunter raising a family and saving time for future. How does one answer the question of the OP with all those different variables and unique situations people find themselves in?
 
Only to some degree. I deal with numbers all day every day at work and don’t care to do it for everything fun too. I like to live in the world of “what if” and will apply for tags it doesn’t seem likely I may draw anytime soon. I don’t know what the future holds for point systems or for populations of a species, so I apply hoping I will have a chance in the future. That said, I can’t apply for everything everywhere so I do have to pick some out not to apply for.
 
No doubt there's a "to each their own" aspect to planning an application strategy. And a lot of variables (which I find fun to try working out). What works for me is just that. It really is tool for sifting through the clutter when you HAVE to make a choice and can't justify doing it all. Say your budget is $500 for applications. Then it starts to become VERY important which opportunities you target. A Utah licence and an application fee get you a certain value for your dollar. Additional applications in UT could then bring that average down further. That might be a better value for YOU than NM or NV, or another state, depending on the specific types of hunts and their odds of what it is you want to chase. If you are into raffles, now it gets really crazy. It's easy to find raffle tickets for a hundred bucks that give 1:300 or 1:400 odds. But there are a lot of 10 and 25 dollar raffles too. But those cheaper ones might have odds of 1:1500 or 1:7000 or worse. Which ones are the better "deal" and should you buy a ticket of each or two tickets of one or 10 tickets of the other, etc, etc. Some people want a chance at everything. Some people must choose a few things. Best bet for me is to stretch the dollars and make sure you are maximizing your odds of drawing given the money you have to spend. You might be able to enter multiple drawings (or buy multiple tickets in a raffle) with say a total of 2-3% odds, for the same price you enter one drawing somewhere else (for an equivalent quality hunt) and only get 1% odds (or often MUCH less). That's what I try to figure out up front. Of course, like I started, to each their own.

BTW, none of this accounts for any tag fee itself, as most of us would happily pay that, IF we could draw. And of course, this also does not apply to the annual hunt, the OTC backup plan, etc. This is only about allocating application fee money amongst the many competing draw/raffle opportunities. But in the end, apply for whatever you dream - odds (and costs, if you can) be damned. But its a fun exercise - to me.
 
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My situation is different to most on here, but my current approach is building points where I have already hunted so I can return (MT, CO, WY) and building points where I’d like to explore (UT, OR). The application and tag cost is relatively low compared to the total cost of a trip for me. But I do a fair bit of analysis and planning to make sure my annual trips allow me to draw a couple of tags and visit amazing places.
 
After 25 years of this, there are more state systems I’d rather exit than enter. Exiting is not easy if you want to get a bang on your way out the door. The three I want to exit the most are Oregon, Utah & Nevada. Wheels are definitely falling off faster than I can burn points.
 
BUT.....and its a huge BUT...value and forecast WILL be a moving target as the states have and will change the rules/cost.
If you apply for lots of states and invest significant amounts of money each year, and the goal is only pull the top tags for each state, just as well pay up front get a PLO tag, and go before the rules/health/unit quality changes.
 
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Great question. I'm limited financially to one hunt/year. I'm limiting myself to mule deer and elk (every other year). Since NM is the first state as I head west (and still most affordable) I apply there first and base my decisions off that outcome. If I dont draw, I'll buy a leftover tag in CO or look at Idaho. I buy points in CO or WY right now because its still affordable. At some point sooner rather than later I'll skip NM and cash in my points (or buy leftover or Idaho if I fail that year). I dont plan to hunt any other elk/muley states unless something changes.

That's my application strategy. Wish I had the luxury of living in a western state I could count on having a mule deer and elk tag every year. But then again, we have pretty great whitetail and duck hunting around here (and bear #s are improving) so I should consider myself fortunate.
 
My situation is different to most on here, but my current approach is building points where I have already hunted so I can return (MT, CO, WY) and building points where I’d like to explore (UT, OR). The application and tag cost is relatively low compared to the total cost of a trip for me. But I do a fair bit of analysis and planning to make sure my annual trips allow me to draw a couple of tags and visit amazing places.

Strongly recommend you adding AZ and delete UT & OR. Unless you are buying landowner tag or auction. Way better value.
 
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