Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Bonasababy]

True. But doing nothing on the most visible of prices is not an option.

We'll see but one of Trump's child like rants last evening was warning he would stop all aid to Israel to avoid giving democrats a policy win. And in Israel, the loss of control by Netenyahu has his opposing parties claiming he and his parties influence need to go. The way it works there his party can't maintain control but have to participate in deciding control and who/how that works. Might take a while but I could see that restoring some willingness to send funds to Israel. I do think we need to have some partnership with them, we helped create the mess and they are key to avoiding bigger problems there from spreading across the world.

 

[SAJ-99]

We'll see but one of Trump's child like rants last evening was warning he would stop all aid to Israel to avoid giving democrats a policy win. And in Israel, the loss of control by Netenyahu has his opposing parties claiming he and his parties influence need to go. The way it works there his party can't maintain control but have to participate in deciding control and who/how that works. Might take a while but I could see that restoring some willingness to send funds to Israel. I do think we need to have some partnership with them, we helped create the mess and they are key to avoiding bigger problems there from spreading across the world.

You can't investment based on whether or not funds go to Israel, and I certainly can't take Trump at his word. This election will empower Iran in negotiations. They can see how much Americans hate high oil/gas prices, which is their only point of leverage. I don't think this Admin has anyone that can negotiate their way out of a paper bag given that Trump will remain Trump and want to come out of this declaring victory.

The 15,000 North Korean troops in Ukraine might say the "spreading" ship has sailed. The World remains a powder keg with extremist groups all too willing to light the fuse.

 

[Flatrock]

Today marks the start of a historically very positive timeframe. I think it's after the last 21 midterms, the forward one year return has been on average about 15%. And all 21 of those periods have been positive. I assume Iran will be messy but won't get significantly worse and I think the year ahead should be a good one.

 

[Blue Steel]

In 8 hrs news went from “futures down big on Dem majority” to “futures up big on Dem takeover of Congress”.

Dems won governorships in most of the key datacenter states and many of the election initiatives passed. This is going to cause some volatility in tech. The “other” sectors are all up big. Probably pretty health. I would argue even the tech guys are happy they can slow spending and have someone to blame.

What’s next? Congress does its job? reversal of tariffs? Data center building moves to new areas and comes with caveats on energy production? ACA subsidies reinstated? New vote on Iran war to bring down oil prices? Should see some interesting rotation. Good luck.

Apparently a lot of voters exit polls indicating the economy is #1 concern. Apparently not everyone is a stock market millionaire (I’m getting deja vu like maybe I said this months ago)

 

[Nick87]

Apparently a lot of voters exit polls indicating the economy is #1 concern. Apparently not everyone is a stock market millionaire (I’m getting deja vu like maybe I said this months ago)

Stock market doesn't mean phugg all to the everyday american.

 

[Treeshark]

Man, went to bed and futures were down over a percent. Crazy day.

 

[SAJ-99]

Re : metals

Are you just referring to the drop in price?

My take....

The world went screwy this winter.

People panicked thinking they were going to need silver and gold to barter for bread.

It didn't happen, people started selling, and as time has gone on, inflation has continued upward, people keep selling their physical bullion, taking losses amd moving on with life, because they realized gas station and grocery stores don't accept silver coins.

Combine that with the paper holders dumping their postions in the last few weeks and converting to bonds. (It's least tha tmakes the most sense to me where the paper bullion money would go).

I can say the exploration, mining and investment here in Central Nevada has not slowed. Cash price for extaction last I looked was $1500 at the most. There is still a lot of downside for it to go before the major players go broke. And we truly do need the physical metals for electronics, solar, data, etc.

Squirrel thought. The recent dip in gold might actually be tied to the drop in the AI stocks (data centers builds and PM's needed for that?)

And today?

 

[mevertsen]

And today?

Who knows.

Also, not a huge bump, could fall or rise again tomorrow. Still at half of the highs from January or thereabouts.

Let's see where it goes over the next couple months and as the new congress gets sworn in.

 

[Sytes]

The Blue IV crush could have made a comment about INTC. You know something like intent to create a "Great Beautiful Blue" bill for INTC's data center, foundries future, and reduced tariffs. So the CPU population regenerates life and the pc world is renewed...

I wouldn't mind getting my $5k back for my, re-education, thought to have learned...

 

[Sytes]

Regarding the market, it doesn't matter whether it's red or blue. This is par for the course.

We see this type of movement every two and four yr election mark.

It's more subtle volatility that can be played the same as earnings. Just have to pull out that bowling ball and look into it for the future to decide which angle to play.

As far as the Blackrock and Vanguard types pattern. They are the ones playing the market, setting the script to some degree and laughing, whether sell or buy.