Big Sky Guy
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That was my thought too, I can’t remember if he addresses that or not. This is the video I was referring to.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
That was my thought too, I can’t remember if he addresses that or not. This is the video I was referring to.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Ugh. I can't watch that. Lots of information, some accurate, some not so much, and almost nothing useful. The US could revalue the gold (would need a change in law), but that wouldn't do anything at all. It wouldn't amount to $300B. A couple of months in the growth of the debt. Everyone screams about the debt. No one EVER shows the assets on balance sheet. Those assets are EVERYTHING held in US that could be taxed. Financial assets, Real Estate, Future Income. No one likes taxes. Telling them that just the housing market is worth $50trillion or the US stock market is worth $70T doesn't ease their mind on the level of debt at $39T. We will inflate our way out of it - devalue the dollar through trade and investment and pay back old debt at $s worth less. Of course, you have issue less new debt than you pay back in old debt. That seems to be what the problem is.
Bonasababy
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Always amazed me that people that I assume can balance their household budget don't look at government the same way. You cut your salary without cutting your expenses? They would see the impact.
They refuse to do so with government. At all levels.
A bit deeper in the subject but the other huge miss is those who insist we can solve things by cutting government.
Social Security, Medicare/medicaid are like your mortgage and your food budget and required interest payments on debt--if they made up 2/3 of your obligations each month.
The plan was for DOGE cuts and tariffs--which now have to be paid back--to make it feasible to make the wealthy richer by keeping their tax rates so low.
Not working--because you can't cut enough to do so at the same time your are drastically reducing revenue coming in.
There's a massive reckoning coming and I don't think its default I think it's a massive Dem win, impeachment and huge increases in taxes on the wealthy.
At one time I used to fear the pendulum swinging so far but now I think most can see it's better than where we are headed if nothing changes!
Reuters is reporting that tomorrow oil prices are going up yet again. Diesel locally rose 70 cents in the last few days near 5 bucks a gallon now. Iran is still resisting and threatening both oil and now the water supplies of middle east countries. No end in sight.
What's your safe haven at times like this?
@SAJ-99 makes some interesting observations. I've too much windshield time lately, allowing my mind to think about too many things that really should matter more to younger people than to the gray hairs like me who probably will be gone before the final reconciliation is forced upon society.
The level of debt recently was stated to be $39T. That's just the amount currently owed on paper. Us accountants, for presentation on financial statements of publicly traded companies, are required to calculate the Present Value of all obligations. Penn's Wharton School, of which the POTUS is an alum, has done just that on the Federal level, not counting the much smaller amount of debt at the state and local level.
Link here to the real cost of the US Debt; paper obligations today and the present value of future promises - https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2025-01-27-complete-measures-of-debt/
Those not wanting to nerd out on how the $162.7T is calculated at that link, here is a screenshot.
One can then use the Federal Reserve's summary of total Net Worth of US Households at this link - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/
Summary is that the net worth of US Households is $172.92T. Image below.
We often hear that US is as wealthy as we've ever been, citing combined Net Worth to exceed $160T. Yeah, that might be the sum of all assets, but sooner or later that $160T+ of liabilities are coming due, not just in the form of cash due, but also in the form of ridiculous high interest rates that are coming in the next 10-25 years. Future generations are being shackled with a level of debt that allows my generation an overly inflated balance sheet and associated disposable income.
The idea that my generation has created huge amounts of wealth is a lot of smoke and mirrors. When we've borrowed or promised $100T more in debts/obligations, the net worth we have placed on our collective balance sheets is not true created value, rather a generational transfer of debt (theft) that comes out of the pockets of those younger than us.
Some would say it is our elected leaders of the last 50 years who have done this through their financial illiteracy. Yes, they have cast the votes that implements the policies, but they are a product of our our collective votes and values, responsive to us pitching a fit if we don't get what we ask for.
I guess we could look at that liability total in two ways; 1) per capita, or 2) percentage of each US household statement of net worth.
1) Per capita - Each American currently owes $470,000 for current and future promises.
2) Percentage of Net Worth - Each dollar of Net Worth on a personal balance sheet has 94 cents of debt/liability not shown. Or stated otherwise, whatever asset we have free and clear of banks and loans, we only have 6% equity in that asset if we wanted to be fair to future generations who will inherit the debt/promises we've made and not paid for.
Since none of this will be fixed in our current electoral or governance models I think I'll go outside on this beautiful day and organize my fishing gear, an activity that gives me far more pleasure and no discomfort.
The level of debt recently was stated to be $39T. That's just the amount currently owed on paper. Us accountants, for presentation on financial statements of publicly traded companies, are required to calculate the Present Value of all obligations. Penn's Wharton School, of which the POTUS is an alum, has done just that on the Federal level, not counting the much smaller amount of debt at the state and local level.
Link here to the real cost of the US Debt; paper obligations today and the present value of future promises - https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2025-01-27-complete-measures-of-debt/
Those not wanting to nerd out on how the $162.7T is calculated at that link, here is a screenshot.
One can then use the Federal Reserve's summary of total Net Worth of US Households at this link - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/
Summary is that the net worth of US Households is $172.92T. Image below.
We often hear that US is as wealthy as we've ever been, citing combined Net Worth to exceed $160T. Yeah, that might be the sum of all assets, but sooner or later that $160T+ of liabilities are coming due, not just in the form of cash due, but also in the form of ridiculous high interest rates that are coming in the next 10-25 years. Future generations are being shackled with a level of debt that allows my generation an overly inflated balance sheet and associated disposable income.
The idea that my generation has created huge amounts of wealth is a lot of smoke and mirrors. When we've borrowed or promised $100T more in debts/obligations, the net worth we have placed on our collective balance sheets is not true created value, rather a generational transfer of debt (theft) that comes out of the pockets of those younger than us.
Some would say it is our elected leaders of the last 50 years who have done this through their financial illiteracy. Yes, they have cast the votes that implements the policies, but they are a product of our our collective votes and values, responsive to us pitching a fit if we don't get what we ask for.
I guess we could look at that liability total in two ways; 1) per capita, or 2) percentage of each US household statement of net worth.
1) Per capita - Each American currently owes $470,000 for current and future promises.
2) Percentage of Net Worth - Each dollar of Net Worth on a personal balance sheet has 94 cents of debt/liability not shown. Or stated otherwise, whatever asset we have free and clear of banks and loans, we only have 6% equity in that asset if we wanted to be fair to future generations who will inherit the debt/promises we've made and not paid for.
Since none of this will be fixed in our current electoral or governance models I think I'll go outside on this beautiful day and organize my fishing gear, an activity that gives me far more pleasure and no discomfort.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Another interesting way to think about it, as people ask when to buy the dip, what yield on the 10yr treasury bond would make you indifferent to buying equities or treasuries?
I’ve seen a few results from the money houses and wow.
SAJ-99
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5 minutes later- announcement there have been no talks. Welcome to reality TV where nothing is real.
NDGuy
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Let it sink in just long enough for the big club to get new shorts
rogerthat
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They were uni-lateral talks held with himself and Epstein ghost. Classic master negotiation in action!
This is a classic TACO. I’m not sure a fiesta like this is going to get the strait flowing. The boy who cried wolf seems like a solid read right now
Bonasababy
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Oh what fun.
From a Reuters article...
"No negotiations have been held with the U.S., and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped," he wrote.
Reuters is also reporting that Ukraine is saying they have irrefutable evidence that Russia is providing Iran with intelligence on US/Israeli actions.
How can we get clued in to the manipulation Trump is doing so we can make some money too?
From a Reuters article...
'FAKENEWS', SAYS IRAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER
Qalibaf said on X that there had been no such talks with the United States, and ridiculed the suggestion as an attempt to rig financial markets."No negotiations have been held with the U.S., and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped," he wrote.
Reuters is also reporting that Ukraine is saying they have irrefutable evidence that Russia is providing Iran with intelligence on US/Israeli actions.
How can we get clued in to the manipulation Trump is doing so we can make some money too?
Wildabeest
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Last edited:
LopeHunter
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There is obvious insider information being used to make hundreds of millions of dollars repeatedly on significant "bets" for the upcoming price movement up/down of stocks, bonds and oil. Bets are placed then the President makes a tweet or comment to the Press and the prices move so the bets are huge winners.
You are not building wealth since you are not tipped off with the insider information and your family may have actually been harmed since bets are a net zero game. For someone to win a crooked bet, someone else lost.
People should go to prison yet how many of us, after watching so few criminals face convictions after the 2008 market crisis, think even one person will be punished? This is our new normal. I feel as though we have circled back in time when Americans were cheering on the exploits of John Dillinger as well as Bonnie and Clyde. Breaking laws with a wink then plausible denial allows us to feel like we are part of the winning, too, though is actually at our own family's detriment as inflation and reduction of government services become apparent.
My level of consumer confidence is down so have throttled back discretionary spending by $10,000s for the rest of this year. Not because I have to tighten the belt but I would like more certainty over how the economy will perform the next three years of this presidential term. Stagflation is a threat with a possible Fed increase in interest rates the next prudent move. I have doubts the incoming Fed Chairman will act prudently as a Fed rate cut will boost the economy though a few months later turbo-charge inflation which already has the tailwinds of the rising oil "tax" hitting every item that gets transported before you buy it. If oil is used to make the item such as fertilizer or diesel then even more oil "tax" hits your wallet.
My level of investor confidence is down until we extract ourselves from these new wars and the inflation eases along with employment levels getting healthier. Long-term confidence is bullish.
I am once again fully invested after two years where had a significant chunk of cash on the sideline as a result of a home sale and what was my final 18-months of take home pay before retired. Bought some real estate last fall to hopefully perform well if inflation heats up the next few years. The rest was deployed starting last December via four monthly buys of a mix of low-fee big-bucket EFTs, TIPS and a 7-year bond ladder.
I look forward to the stock market being boring again. Now that I am fully invested again, I will exert no effort to check investment valuations except at the end of each month as update a spreadsheet of our asset holdings. I was never a trader. Never much of a casino visitor, either. Happy to tap out singles in the market rather than swing for the fences. I am a smart person but I was in grad school with much sharper people who I trust will see grandslam opportunities before I could. Or, they get a tip from the Whitehouse.
BigHornRam
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Sold out my oil stocks yesterday.
BigHornRam
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Up with a bullet today!
BigHornRam
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406dn
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Well, I'm still holding my oil stocks. Frankly, the oil situation is far from resolved, imo.
BigHornRam
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But not convinced enough to buy?
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