Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

SAJ-99 said:
anyone who watched today’s press conference can clearly see the guy has lost his marbles. The hope that Congress will step up is the only thing holding this together. But yeah, letting him rant about Greenland and such takes away talk about the Epstein files.

In other good news.
- Amazon CEO stating that tariffs are starting to raise prices.
- Denmark saying it will sell all US treasuries (Bessent has to be less than thrilled with that)
- sprinkle in the Japan mess

All the ingredients for volatility and the VIX is 20. 🤔
Click to expand...
Believe it or not calls
 
NDGuy said:
You can count on Taco to reverse stance
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My take is nothing was really reversed. The market reacted to him "not using force" on Greenland but mostly is was a word salad that had those words and ended up sounding more like "we'll see". Given his past experience in negotiating NY RE, he isn't giving up any power he might have much less the biggest one.
The selloff came when EU said they were not interested in negotiating anything. Tariffs are still on, but market still betting on TACO. It seems the market itself (selloffs and recoveries) and the polling will determine what happens.
 
SAJ-99 said:
My take is nothing was really reversed. The market reacted to him "not using force" on Greenland but mostly is was a word salad that had those words and ended up sounding more like "we'll see". Given his past experience in negotiating NY RE, he isn't giving up any power he might have much less the biggest one.
The selloff came when EU said they were not interested in negotiating anything. Tariffs are still on, but market still betting on TACO. It seems the market itself (selloffs and recoveries) and the polling will determine what happens.
Click to expand...
Oops, he just TACO'd.
 
55f2b4efcf1dd8971feee1da00f35b10

From Bloomberg: "As Trumps threats and insults persist, money managers from London to Berlin to Madrid have been increasingly fielding inquries from clients on ways to lighten up on US assets."

Also talk about massive European pension holdings in US assets beginning divestment of them.

I took advice from more than a year ago to get back into foreign funds and ran with that. Planning to ask my advisors soon if I should ramp up that % even more.
 
Bonasababy said:
55f2b4efcf1dd8971feee1da00f35b10

From Bloomberg: "As Trumps threats and insults persist, money managers from London to Berlin to Madrid have been increasingly fielding inquries from clients on ways to lighten up on US assets."

Also talk about massive European pension holdings in US assets beginning divestment of them.

I took advice from more than a year ago to get back into foreign funds and ran with that. Planning to ask my advisors soon if I should ramp up that % even more.
Click to expand...
I have been guilty of letting my political opinions interfering with investment strategy.

The best example is when Zuckerberg first ventured into the metaverse. Wall Street was not impressed, and the stock fell to ~$100/share, iirc. I KNEW it was an overreaction, but my distain for Zuckerberg, kept me from buying a position. That was a costly, if principled lesson.

So, I think any fiduciary, should stick to their best business analysis, and put politics to the side, generally.

I am appreciative of Trump's dissing of my former employer, after having oil CEO's come to the White House. That has been very kind to my retirement nest egg. I won't be thanking Trump anytime soon thou.
 
Bonasababy said:
55f2b4efcf1dd8971feee1da00f35b10

From Bloomberg: "As Trumps threats and insults persist, money managers from London to Berlin to Madrid have been increasingly fielding inquries from clients on ways to lighten up on US assets."

Also talk about massive European pension holdings in US assets beginning divestment of them.

I took advice from more than a year ago to get back into foreign funds and ran with that. Planning to ask my advisors soon if I should ramp up that % even more.
Click to expand...
Wise move. USD having a really rough month. EAFE at all time highs and continues to outperform large cap US equities. Energy stocks overweight has been a good bet too.
 
rogerthat said:
Any thoughts on United health? Opportunity to get in at Buffett prices now?
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Yes, but realize you are dumpster diving. There were a lot of large investors positioned long on a rebound in the space and this was a kick in the nuts. The Medicare advantage news seems like a reaction that will force calls to DC. You can't stay in a market that loses money and it is a popular program for both the insured and providers. The question is how long will you have to wait.
 
rogerthat said:
Any thoughts on United health? Opportunity to get in at Buffett prices now?
Click to expand...

I think it may well be. I own a position in CVS. They dropped today for the same reasons.

One of my better moves was buying Target, after they reported disappointing earnings. They dropped, ~17% in a single day. I made very good money on that trade.

At most, the stocks might be worth 95% of what they were a few days ago. When was the last time an insurance company could not figure out how to stay profitable?
 
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