Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[noharleyyet]

Some? Oh sure. There is plenty of blame to go around. The NINJA loans were a huge problem, but the vast majority of them were done by non-bank lenders like Countrywide, IndyMac and host of others. Congress gets some blame for not bailing out Lehman, which caused a fire sale of assets to meet liquidity demands that cascaded through the financial system. But I know funds that bought plenty of mortgage pool for $0.20 on the $ and they ended up getting back over $0.90. It was a very complex situation where people tend to look for a single villain. The reality is we were all in on it, but no one wants to hear that. I always chuckle when someone the borrower doesn't get blamed for anything. But I guess we do the same thing with drugs. We blame the drug dealer and say the user has a disease and needs help.


You default yet? The numbers are the numbers. I'm sure the lender is still over-collateralized in LTV. But I also chuckle when I hear people say they want home prices to come down.

Microwave attention spans...

 

[SAJ-99]

Microwave attention spans...

Certainly part of the problem. But it’s more a problem of core human traits. “Only borrow as much money as you can afford” is right there with “Just say No” and abstinence as sex ed.

 

[SAJ-99]

BHR, you bought the wrong POS stock.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/trump-media-djt-tae-fusion-merger.html

 

[BigHornRam]

BHR, you bought the wrong POS stock.

View attachment 396311

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/trump-media-djt-tae-fusion-merger.html

As did you.

 

[SAJ-99]

As did you.

I have bought my fair share, but I know better than to hold on to them.

 

[jryoung]

Is there a tool out there where you can plug in your ETF/MF/UITs and other funds and have it spit out your individual company holdings by allocation?

Seems like there are plenty of options to list how your funds have perfomed, or a summary of the sectors they are in and whether it's value, income or growth.....but what if I want to know my total holdings on NVDA, MO, GOOG, GOOGL, etc across all the different investments I have between several investment accounts. To date I typically eyeball it by top holdings, but wondering if there is something more granular?

 

[SAJ-99]

Is there a tool out there where you can plug in your ETF/MF/UITs and other funds and have it spit out your individual company holdings by allocation?

Seems like there are plenty of options to list how your funds have perfomed, or a summary of the sectors they are in and whether it's value, income or growth.....but what if I want to know my total holdings on NVDA, MO, GOOG, GOOGL, etc across all the different investments I have between several investment accounts. To date I typically eyeball it by top holdings, but wondering if there is something more granular?

No, not by holdings. There are a few that show you general allocation to sectors and such, but I have never found a free tool that provides a comprehensive risk model. Personal Capital was good, but I have not checked it out since it got bought by Empower. Portfolio Viz is decent but I don't think it does stock level risk unless they added it over the last couple of years.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

 

[Treeshark]

Is there a tool out there where you can plug in your ETF/MF/UITs and other funds and have it spit out your individual company holdings by allocation?

It should be somewhere in the prospectus info. Here is an example for SCHB (scroll down to “portfolio” part):

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schb#portfolio

 

[jryoung]

It should be somewhere in the prospectus info. Here is an example for SCHB (scroll down to “portfolio” part):

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schb#portfolio

I'm looking for a tool, to analyze that data. Ideally all the way through all of the holdings. Certainly depending on the fund/fund type there will be some changes in allocations, but I was looking to analyze across several different investment vehicles.


Because of the maginificent 7/dependence on the S&P there often is lots of crossover. Take the simple example below. If I had $100k in VUG and $100k in VFIAX what is my total individual ownership of certain stocks? How can I track that over time?

Goals:
Dynamic tracking of investments
Be able to screen new investments (beyond taking a quick glance at the prospectus/or top 10 holdings like I currently do)
Create a bigger broader picture of all investments and allocations for future investment decision making and or rebalancing
Be able to quickly toggle between total holdings of individual stocks and total holdings by sector

 

[Treeshark]

I'm looking for a tool, to analyze that data. Ideally all the way through all of the holdings.

I see. That would be cool.

 

[SAJ-99]

Apparently Socialism is the new Capitalism. I’m not even sure how to model this if you are looking at/holding NVDA. Stock has been dead money since August. Do people sell if there is a pop in this news?

Trump says Nvidia can sell H200 AI chips to China if U.S. gets 25%
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/trump-nvidia-h200-sales-china.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

More socialism. The good news is that Elizabeth Warren is totally on board.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-housing-affordability.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/trump-dividends-stock-buybacks-defense-companies.html

 

[noharleyyet]

SAJ-99 said:
"Apparently Socialism is the new Capitalism. I’m not even sure how to model this if you are looking at/holding NVDA. Stock has been dead money since August. Do people sell if there is a pop in this news?"

 

[brymoore]

Trump Administration Sells First Cargo of Venezuelan Oil for $500 Million

The Trump administration has made its first sale of Venezuelan crude oil, a consignment valued at $500 million, White House officials told multiple m...

maritime-executive.com

Good thing we ended the Venezuela drug trafficking.

 

[406dn]

Trump Administration Sells First Cargo of Venezuelan Oil for $500 Million

The Trump administration has made its first sale of Venezuelan crude oil, a consignment valued at $500 million, White House officials told multiple m...

maritime-executive.com

Good thing we ended the Venezuela drug trafficking.

We might have done even better to just have stolen the cocaine...if there was cocaine.

 

[Bonasababy]

Nice day eh? Seems we have the answer to whst the markets think of the attempt to take over Greenland.

 

[brymoore]

Nice day eh? Seems we have the answer to whst the markets think of the attempt to take over Greenland.

No oil reserves.

 

[Dave N]

Don't even want to know what my 401k did today

 

[Hem]

With the predictable market fluctuations the second Trump brays about tariffs I wonder if this is intentional manipulation....and has nothing to do with international relations.
1.5 billion earnings.....hmmm.
Purely a speculation.

 

[Bonasababy]

I

With the predictable market fluctuations the second Trump brays about tariffs I wonder if this is intentional manipulation....and has nothing to do with international relations.
1.5 billion earnings.....hmmm.
Purely a speculation.

I've wondered that too with other poorly received news.

 

[SAJ-99]

and has nothing to do with international relations.

anyone who watched today’s press conference can clearly see the guy has lost his marbles. The hope that Congress will step up is the only thing holding this together. But yeah, letting him rant about Greenland and such takes away talk about the Epstein files.

In other good news.
- Amazon CEO stating that tariffs are starting to raise prices.
- Denmark saying it will sell all US treasuries (Bessent has to be less than thrilled with that)
- sprinkle in the Japan mess

All the ingredients for volatility and the VIX is 20.