I have yet to meet a short-term trader that does better than a strategic long term investor that stays the course through thick and thin. Yet I’ve met plenty of traders that have done much worse than long term investors. I guess we have some exceptions on here…
Absolutely there are some astute and lucky traders on here, just are there are astute and lucky gamblers in Vegas.
I was likely lucky at to this point over the past 28 months though every trade was based on pre-set drops or rises in stock values.
I dumped Bonds the third week of February 2020 when were 35% of my tax-advantaged portfolio. I never thought I would be without bonds and likely I would be increasing my bond allocation as am almost at retirement but stocks were falling in February 2020 so my intent was to hold cash so sold bonds. February 2020 appeared to me to be the start of a panic much as I had seen as the markets fell post 9/11/2001 for a few days then snap back. I was sitting on the cash to pay for 6 years of college so loaded up on stocks as the markets finally reopened post-9/11 then sold a few days later. The income tax hit was harsh but made some money after the dust settled for the risk I took.
So, sold the bonds in February 2020 and used proceeds from those bond sales to buy stocks via VTI ETF. Stocks bounced several weeks later, sold and expected to dollar average back in stocks from cash but stocks fell again a couple of weeks later so bought into stocks over the next two weeks. Stocks popped up again. Sold again. Fell again. Started buying individual stocks that were higher P/E than VTI EFT as the swings in the market were exaggerated even more as P/E was higher. I only bought individaul stocks which I was willing to hold a decade in case market fell 50% after I was 100% in stocks. I was only buying then did the same buy low/sell high a half dozen times or so. was virtually 100% stocks as headed into the mountains for a hunt in October 2020. No trades the next four months.
Dumped almost all the stocks in early February 2022 when seemed only a matter of days until soil froze allowing Russia to invade Ukraine, inflation appeared to me to not be transitory and Fed Rates were needing to go up multiple times and the Fed was going to have to dump assets by summer. Am dollar averaging back in though no hurry to go 100% stocks. At some point, will sell some stocks to get back towards 40% bonds. Why cash? Neither Bonds nor stocks seemed likely to prosper then next 6 to 12 months. Nor REITS. I already have two homes and did not feel adding another made sense as suspect housing in AZ is overheated. So, cash.
Am dollar-averaging back into the VTI ETF. Hope to be back to 100% invested in stocks in the tax-advantaged portfolio by January 2023. Then, will at some point in 2023 hopefully get back to holding 40% bonds. Then, hopefully the stock market, bond market and economy behave in a typical historical manner so I make no trades for years as has been the case in most of my past 4 decades of holding investments.
I do not buy options. I don't chase crypto in a meaningful amount. I buy big buckets of stocks or blue chip individual stocks. My downside is limited but is there. Missing the upside is also a risk. Has played out well so far.
