Another Housing Market Crash Looming?

If there is a correction coming to the housing market, it will be to townhomes in Bozeman not to places with any acreage within an hour or even two of it. I think that must be true of any larger, western town.

A lot of blame is put on the pandemic, tech, and work from home, but what I see is in my area (Im not in town) is almost entirely boomers buying their retirement home. I am 40 years old this year, and other than one other family of professionals (she is, at least, not sure what he does) a couple properties down, I am probably the youngest person in a 10 mile radius (and further going in certain direction) by about 10 years (or more). Some of the homeowners are older locals that have lived here forever, but most are retirees, or soon-to-be retirees, from elsewhere, some of them living in here only part of the year.

Look at all the relocation topics here and elsewhere. Its usually along the lines of, 'I am getting ready to retire, looking for a place near good hunting, outside of town, has acreage, can see mountains, close enough to town for good supermarkets, close enough to hospital, (maybe) close to airport'. The competition would be stiff even were there an inventory of homes on the market, but there arent and at this point youre waiting for a generation to start dying off (people that may be the same age as you if youre one of those looking to retire) and who know what the demand will be like once they do. Either that, or you are willing to get into an all out bidding war to outpay the other guy(s).

Its better where there is no 'mountain tax', ie one cant see the mountains. Billings, for instance. But even there, there are retirees moving in. I just helped my little sister move into a new place she bought in a town near-ish Billings 2 weeks ago. More affordable over there, but its basically at Livingston prices of 4-5 years ago and Bozeman of 10 years ago for an equivalent place. Was talking to the neighbors, a younger couple, who were joking they were just trying to guess how old the new neighbors, sure to be retirees, moving in next door would be. Cant even see the mountains from town.

Ive a hard time imagining any real price correction coming.
 
Its better where there is no 'mountain tax', ie one cant see the mountains.

Houses going off the market in days, waiving inspections, assessments, offering way over asking has been going on in the Denver market for at least 5 years if not more. My cousin bought in '14 and doubled his money selling in '19.

We bought in 17'. Offered 10% more than asking, property was the first one to be redone in an up and coming neighborhood so the comps were atrocious. Appraisal came back 50% of contract price. We were able to negotiate with the seller, and had some cash so were able to come to a deal and paid the difference in cash. Our PMI sucked because of it but oh well.

In 19' the tax appraisal doubled in value, so with our tax appraisal we now had 40% down, I could have gotten rid of the PMI but we knew we went going to be in there long enough to make it worth it.

I just sold the property, for 130% of what we paid. Got my down payment back, all the fees, interest, mortgage etc. basically had a free place to live for 4 years.

We are probably moving in 23 months so have decided to rent until then and wait.

Weird times.
 
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Houses going off the market in days, waiving inspections, assessments, offering way over asking has been going on in the Denver market for at least 5 years if not more. My cousin bought in '14 and doubled his money selling in '19.

Are mountains visible from Denver? Have only ever been thru airport.


I guess the point we are both making is: the smart move is to buy as soon as you can rather than waiting and hoping.


I bought my current house 4 years ago. It was over what I wanted to spend - not over what the bank told me I could spend, just what I wanted to spend. Too good to pass on, tho, and while money was a tight for a couple years, it got easier and now with the low mortgage rates and a refi my mortgage is a bit under what I had wanted it to be 4 years ago - still paying more than mortgage amount and will have paid off in same amount of time, but actually rolling in extra cash for a change which I spend on drugs and hookers (ok, not hookers as even they find me repulsive, but I buy a lot of hentai which fills that need for me). Got lucky.

Could sell now for double, maybe more, what I paid, but where would I live?
 
When a correction comes I don't see significantly reduced prices. Last time sales slowed down but prices didn't drop significantly unless it was a foreclosure or short sale.
Since you can't get a mortgage on a foreclosure or short sale without showing the funds they don't do the average guy much good. They pretty much all get sucked up by investors.
The "haves" will have more and the "have nots" will have less.
Such is life.
Sad if you love the place and want to see the young people succeed.
 
I don’t think the appraisals can keep up when they use the comparable sales method, which is usually the common method in subdivisions.

I had my house appraised a few months ago for a refi. Last week, a smaller house with no pool sold for $25k more than my appraisal was for.
I have no doubt, I could list at $25k above that and have multiple offers same day. But then I’d be homeless.
 
Houses don’t need to appraise for cash purchases. You get a few cash buyers in the market paying ridiculous prices with no appraisals, then those cash purchases are used for comps. It drives the market up over and over again.
 
When a correction comes I don't see significantly reduced prices. Last time sales slowed down but prices didn't drop significantly unless it was a foreclosure or short sale.
Since you can't get a mortgage on a foreclosure or short sale without showing the funds they don't do the average guy much good. They pretty much all get sucked up by investors.
The "haves" will have more and the "have nots" will have less.
Such is life.
Sad if you love the place and want to see the young people succeed.
What do you mean you cant buy a foreclosure without showing funds? I know a lot of people who bought one for there personal residence myself included but this was years ago?
 
I bought a foreclosure during the last crash and the bank would not finance. You had to show that you had the money, we had a house sale in progress at the time and didn't have the money. We put my father in law on the title because he had the money in an account. We didn't use the money because our sale went through but we just had to show that we had it. After our sale was complete we did a quit claim deed.
I also negotiated a short sale a few months later on a lot and it was the same deal. You had to show that you had the money they would not finance a short sale or a forclosure. Idk if it is always like that but it was in 2011.

The whole time the media reported that like 80 percent of foreclosures we being bought by investors.
 
I bought a foreclosure during the last crash and the bank would not finance. You had to show that you had the money, we had a house sale in progress at the time and didn't have the money. We put my father in law on the title because he had the money in an account. We didn't use the money because our sale went through but we just had to show that we had it. After our sale was complete we did a quit claim deed.
I also negotiated a short sale a few months later on a lot and it was the same deal. You had to show that you had the money they would not finance a short sale or a forclosure. Idk if it is always like that but it was in 2011.

The whole time the media reported that like 80 percent of foreclosures we being bought by investors.
Interesting, bought my first house which was a foreclosure in 2009 I think with 10% down. Maybe it's a local thing 🤷‍♂️
 
I bought a foreclosure during the last crash and the bank would not finance. You had to show that you had the money, we had a house sale in progress at the time and didn't have the money. We put my father in law on the title because he had the money in an account. We didn't use the money because our sale went through but we just had to show that we had it. After our sale was complete we did a quit claim deed.
I also negotiated a short sale a few months later on a lot and it was the same deal. You had to show that you had the money they would not finance a short sale or a forclosure. Idk if it is always like that but it was in 2011.

The whole time the media reported that like 80 percent of foreclosures we being bought by investors.
I bought a foreclosure as my primary residence in 2009 with 3.5% down.
 
This was in Livingston Mt. Maybe local, I had never heard of it before that.
A company I worked for was buying foreclosures in Arlington for their mineral rights. We’d buy the place keep the minerals and then flip it to a company that wanted the surface.

Sales were literally cash only, but were also under 30k for a property.
 
Probably had more to do with the bank you were working with. My experience with some Bozeman area banks in the past left a lot to be desired. Arrogant pricks would sum it up best.
It looks like that might be the case. The house was through a realtor that was dealing almost exclusively with forclosed properties. They lead us to believe that was just the way it was.
 
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