Another Housing Market Crash Looming?

mtmuley

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Jan 11, 2009
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montana

Sytes

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Sep 25, 2009
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Montana
Bring it. Our mule deer doe hunting is second to none. mtmuley
I'd rather they not... even if our muleys end up as B&C based on ear dimensions.

Covid's been a wild ride CO already a prime example though that's been a work in the making... ID looks to be on the short list quickly followed by MT, if not in a tight race with WY after...
 

AlaskaHunter

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Jan 20, 2017
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interior Alaska
Nothing solves high prices like high prices. here is the futures curve today. He might get to republish the same article a couple more times this year. Will it be like gas, where prices are high to rise and fall stubbornly?

View attachment 185849
Yes I don't think home prices will fall this year.
1) Record high $10 trillion in home equity - debt
2) Record high cost of construction materials
3) Near record low mortgage interest rates
4) Near record low supply of homes on the market
5) Moratorium on federal backed mortgage foreclosures.
 

Backofbeyond

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Joined
Jan 2, 2018
Messages
433
Location
Boise, ID
Little story about the Boise area.

Two years ago, wifey and I bought our house. Not huge, but in a great neighborhood, 1/2 acre lot. At the time I thought we were crazy at $325k, based on pure gut instinct, and that the house had sold 4 years prior for $200k.

Over the last two years we've painted the inside, done some landscaping in the back yard and I put on a new roof last summer. Nothing major. About a month ago I was in the front yard working on something and a black Merc pulls into the driveway, CA liscense plates. Guy gets out, starts making small talk which quickly escalates to him asking about the house, and ended with him asking me if we wanted to sell the house. I basically blew it off saying "no, but everything has a price." He straight up offered me $550k cash on the spot, with 4 months free rent to find a new place and move. I politely told him no thanks, that wasn't the price, and sent him on his way.

Last night, out working on a sprinkler that's on it's last legs, and in pulls a red Merc, CA plates, and the same dude gets out. Small talk goes about the same, escalates quickly to asking me about the house... pretty much the same conversation from before - which makes me think he doesn't remember we've done this dance before. This time he offers me $650k cash, 4 months rent free. I told him that it was a very generous offer, but no, that wasn't the price and sent him along his merry way.

But if this trend line holds (I know small sample size etc.) he's gonna hit my "Holy Sh!t! How much?" number in October... what the hell do I do then?

Doesn't help that the State of ID just sold some property previously used by UoI Ag Research just a stones throw away for $127k an acre - to a developer of course. Not sure how many hack-a-shacks CBH can put on +280 acres, but I'm guessing it's enough to make it feel a bit crowded in my neck of the woods.
 

elkmagnet

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Jul 14, 2011
Messages
3,890
Location
Hodale, Idaho
Little story about the Boise area.

Two years ago, wifey and I bought our house. Not huge, but in a great neighborhood, 1/2 acre lot. At the time I thought we were crazy at $325k, based on pure gut instinct, and that the house had sold 4 years prior for $200k.

Over the last two years we've painted the inside, done some landscaping in the back yard and I put on a new roof last summer. Nothing major. About a month ago I was in the front yard working on something and a black Merc pulls into the driveway, CA liscense plates. Guy gets out, starts making small talk which quickly escalates to him asking about the house, and ended with him asking me if we wanted to sell the house. I basically blew it off saying "no, but everything has a price." He straight up offered me $550k cash on the spot, with 4 months free rent to find a new place and move. I politely told him no thanks, that wasn't the price, and sent him on his way.

Last night, out working on a sprinkler that's on it's last legs, and in pulls a red Merc, CA plates, and the same dude gets out. Small talk goes about the same, escalates quickly to asking me about the house... pretty much the same conversation from before - which makes me think he doesn't remember we've done this dance before. This time he offers me $650k cash, 4 months rent free. I told him that it was a very generous offer, but no, that wasn't the price and sent him along his merry way.

But if this trend line holds (I know small sample size etc.) he's gonna hit my "Holy Sh!t! How much?" number in October... what the hell do I do then?

Doesn't help that the State of ID just sold some property previously used by UoI Ag Research just a stones throw away for $127k an acre - to a developer of course. Not sure how many hack-a-shacks CBH can put on +280 acres, but I'm guessing it's enough to make it feel a bit crowded in my neck of the woods.
Maybe I need to spend some time in my front yard!?
 

wllm1313

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Joined
Dec 9, 2015
Messages
11,348
Location
Manetheren
Little story about the Boise area.

Two years ago, wifey and I bought our house. Not huge, but in a great neighborhood, 1/2 acre lot. At the time I thought we were crazy at $325k, based on pure gut instinct, and that the house had sold 4 years prior for $200k.

Over the last two years we've painted the inside, done some landscaping in the back yard and I put on a new roof last summer. Nothing major. About a month ago I was in the front yard working on something and a black Merc pulls into the driveway, CA liscense plates. Guy gets out, starts making small talk which quickly escalates to him asking about the house, and ended with him asking me if we wanted to sell the house. I basically blew it off saying "no, but everything has a price." He straight up offered me $550k cash on the spot, with 4 months free rent to find a new place and move. I politely told him no thanks, that wasn't the price, and sent him on his way.

Last night, out working on a sprinkler that's on it's last legs, and in pulls a red Merc, CA plates, and the same dude gets out. Small talk goes about the same, escalates quickly to asking me about the house... pretty much the same conversation from before - which makes me think he doesn't remember we've done this dance before. This time he offers me $650k cash, 4 months rent free. I told him that it was a very generous offer, but no, that wasn't the price and sent him along his merry way.

But if this trend line holds (I know small sample size etc.) he's gonna hit my "Holy Sh!t! How much?" number in October... what the hell do I do then?

Doesn't help that the State of ID just sold some property previously used by UoI Ag Research just a stones throw away for $127k an acre - to a developer of course. Not sure how many hack-a-shacks CBH can put on +280 acres, but I'm guessing it's enough to make it feel a bit crowded in my neck of the woods.
Problem is where do you move to with your cash... but if you have a spot in mind...

As I said to @Dsnow9 this morning the market is drunk and just bought a baggie of meth. Can't believe some of the stuff going on right now. I tend to agree with @AlaskaHunter and @SAJ-99 but some of the shenanigans... I just having a hard time swallowing the idea that these prices are "real".
 

SAJ-99

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Jan 5, 2019
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Montana
Problem is where do you move to with your cash... but if you have a spot in mind...

As I said to @Dsnow9 this morning the market is drunk and just bought a baggie of meth. Can't believe some of the stuff going on right now. I tend to agree with @AlaskaHunter and @SAJ-99 but some of the shenanigans... I just having a hard time swallowing the idea that these prices are "real".
Real yes, but not reflective of America broad economy in normal market. The buyers are the top 20%- high incomes, low debt, high savings, etc. they plop down cash because they can. Normally these purchases would be balanced out by “starter home” purchases like condos, townhouses, smaller single family homes. Those are reduced, maybe because of the moratorium on foreclosures? Whatever the reason, the larger purchases drive the numbers.
The housing market is certainly not healthy, but I doubt it will crash. A crash results from forced selling, typically coming from being over-levered. We don’t see that right now. Consumer is in good shape. But who knows really? Hard to say what higher rates and a stock market sell-off will do when the Fed rushes in to save the day at any sign of trouble.
 

Backofbeyond

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Joined
Jan 2, 2018
Messages
433
Location
Boise, ID
Problem is where do you move to with your cash... but if you have a spot in mind...

As I said to @Dsnow9 this morning the market is drunk and just bought a baggie of meth. Can't believe some of the stuff going on right now. I tend to agree with @AlaskaHunter and @SAJ-99 but some of the shenanigans... I just having a hard time swallowing the idea that these prices are "real".

Oh, I'm with you. I don't have a spot in mind, that's the rub. Even if the offer is stupid rich, I'm not willing to take on MORE mortgage to move/improve. We'll have this place paid off in 8 years, which leaves us plenty of cash flow heading into the boys going to college... I'm a simpleton - I like cash flow.
 

Backofbeyond

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Jan 2, 2018
Messages
433
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Boise, ID
Maybe I need to spend some time in my front yard!?

I guess the more Boise fills up, the more 2C is the place to be, especially outside of city limits. Boggles the mind. When I graduated in 2012 and headed to TX, Caldwell was a place you didn't go, unless it was for the rodeo. Now it's the up-coming place TO be....

Just glad we bought when we did. I see a slow-down coming, but I don't think prices are going to drop - just slow down.
 
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