Another Calculation...Help Please!

[Washington Hunter]

OK, now I want to know, in the same draw scenario, with the deer tag being a 1 in 6 chance, and the elk being 1 in 9, what are my odds of drawing just ONE of those?

 

[Spitz]

Still pretty sucky! I'll go out on a limb here and say your chances of drawing one are an average of both . . . so 1/7.5.

 

[Washington Hunter]

Still pretty sucky! I'll go out on a limb here and say your chances of drawing one are an average of both . . . so 1/7.5.

I thought about averaging them like that, but that seems way oversimplified, but, maybe not. Where's Tom when we need him?

As far as being "sucky," (I love that term BTW) when looking at the odds of a drawing a good elk hunt here in Washington, it's not so bad. I mean, we're talking odds from around 1 in 50 at the best, to 1 in 200, for a good bull elk hunt. Course, that is simplifying things quite a bit, because we have points here, so to figure the true odds is impossible.

 

[Washington Hunter]

Anybody else? Come on...this is important stuff! It makes a difference on what I apply for in Oregon this year.

 

[MattK]

WH- According to my calculations you have a little better than 1:4 chance actually about a 27% chance of drawing one tag.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Add them together..... Think about it...

If your best one is 16% on the Deer, (1 in 6), then applying for another tag will not lower your 16% chance of getting a tag on the deer. Applying for the Elk will only increase your chance of getting EITHER tag.

 

[Washington Hunter]

OK, 27% sounds like what I thought it should be. Jose it makes too much sense when you put it that way! Duh! 1 in 4 odds, of a good hunt, man I am liking those odds. I'm thinking for Oregon I may just apply for points.

 

[Moosie]

See other post....... 50%, Thats true math !!!!