'22 NR MT Elk Combo Tag Odds 2pp

[BlakeA]

How exactly does the new outfitter PP and BP work and how much will that mess up trying to predict your odds?

They are able to buy 2 pp's a year essentially putting them ahead of the line for the most part compared to DIY applicants who can only purchase 1 pp a year. Nothing changed regarding BP's. It's pretty much impossible to predict this years odds.

 

[SC Living Outdoors]

I have 2 pp. Did they cap NR at 2 pp or am I still allowed to purchase one before the draw to go in with 3?

 

[Shangobango]

I have 2 pp. Did they cap NR at 2 pp or am I still allowed to purchase one before the draw to go in with 3?

You can still purchase.

 

[Kiwi]

Here is my guess:
3 points = 100%
2 points = 65%
1 point = 0%
0 point = 50%

 

[Shangobango]

Here is my guess:
3 points = 100%
2 points = 65%
1 point = 0%
0 point = 50%

Do you work for Montana FWP???

 

[DFS]

I can’t believe the interest in these tags. For the price and quality of hunt it doesn’t even come close to making sense.

 

[Shangobango]

I can’t believe the interest in these tags. For the price and quality of hunt it doesn’t even come close to making sense.

Some of us like paying through the nose to take our rifles for a hike...

 

[8andcounting]

I can’t believe the interest in these tags. For the price and quality of hunt it doesn’t even come close to making sense.

I agree - I only go cuz I have close family friends there . Once I draw a LE permit , if I ever do , I’ll still go out once every fall but I’ll buy a cow elk tag for $275 and call it good

 

[stealthy_bowman]

I am always befuddled by the Montana point/application questions as to why people apply for there. The only things I have read on HT is how horrible the hunting is anymore and that there’s not a living creature, other than cattle, on public land.

I must be missing something.

You forgot to mention the rampant predators, such as grizzlies and wolves, everywhere. So it's not just cattle living on the public

 

[GCox]

How could you possibly know that ? 10,000 people could apply next week all could buy a point and have 1 . U don’t think there was some guys who didn’t apply last year that will have 2 this year . There’s no way for you to accurately say this

When I said going into this draw I meant after the 2021 draw and prior to the 2022 draw. If you go look at the actual draw results on the Montana fwp website and do a little math you can see these obvious numbers. What I am getting at is that the people with two points alone already have the 75% of the elk combo pool covered.

 

[520 Road Sow]

Lots of tags to be had for everyone.

59,395 Deer and Elk Tags to Nonresidents! - Eastmans' Official Blog | Mule Deer, Antelope, Elk Hunting and Bowhunting Magazine | Eastmans' Hunting Journals

Montana Nonresident big-game combination (deer and elk) licenses have been capped at 17,000 since 19

blog.eastmans.com

 

[8andcounting]

Lots of tags to be had for everyone.

59,395 Deer and Elk Tags to Nonresidents! - Eastmans' Official Blog | Mule Deer, Antelope, Elk Hunting and Bowhunting Magazine | Eastmans' Hunting Journals

Montana Nonresident big-game combination (deer and elk) licenses have been capped at 17,000 since 19

blog.eastmans.com

Lots of $ brought in too .

 

[520 Road Sow]

Lots of $ brought in too .

That's why they all got new trucks every year...

 

[Kiwi]

I see MT FWP has published draw odds for 2022 - cut and paste below. Its in a new format but looks to have mistakes?

Big Game/Elk Combo Drawing Stats
2022 (Total apps 30,947)

• 3-2.2 PP 100% Draw (3,651 apps)
• 2 PP 97.5% Draw (9,336 apps/ 9,098 combos available)
• 0 PP 73.6 % Draw (5,772 apps/4249 combos available

2021 (Total apps 31,915)

• 3-1.2 PP 100% Draw (6,952 apps)
• 1 PP 31% Draw (18,933 apps/5,792 combos available)
• .2-.8 PP 0% Draw (104 apps)
• 0 PP 71.7 % Draw (5926 apps/4250 combos available)

Deer Combo Drawing Stats
2022 (Total apps 17,396)

• 3-1.2 PP 100% Draw (6,480 apps)
• 1 PP 17% Draw (5,963 apps/1,041 available)
• .2-.8 PP 0% Draw (332 apps)
• 0 PP 54 % Draw (4,621 apps/2,507 available

2021 (Total apps 19,484)

• 3-1.2 PP 100% Draw (2,955 apps)
• 1 PP 37% Draw (11,944 apps/4,465 available)
• .2-.75 PP 0% Draw (93 apps)
• 0 PP 55 % Draw (4,491 apps/2,474 available)

 

[BradA]

I see MT FWP has published draw odds for 2022 - cut and paste below. Its in a new format but looks to have mistakes?

Big Game/Elk Combo Drawing Stats
2022 (Total apps 30,947)

• 3-2.2 PP 100% Draw (3,651 apps)
• 2 PP 97.5% Draw (9,336 apps/ 9,098 combos available)
• 0 PP 73.6 % Draw (5,772 apps/4249 combos available

2021 (Total apps 31,915)

• 3-1.2 PP 100% Draw (6,952 apps)
• 1 PP 31% Draw (18,933 apps/5,792 combos available)
• .2-.8 PP 0% Draw (104 apps)
• 0 PP 71.7 % Draw (5926 apps/4250 combos available)

Deer Combo Drawing Stats
2022 (Total apps 17,396)

• 3-1.2 PP 100% Draw (6,480 apps)
• 1 PP 17% Draw (5,963 apps/1,041 available)
• .2-.8 PP 0% Draw (332 apps)
• 0 PP 54 % Draw (4,621 apps/2,507 available

2021 (Total apps 19,484)

• 3-1.2 PP 100% Draw (2,955 apps)
• 1 PP 37% Draw (11,944 apps/4,465 available)
• .2-.75 PP 0% Draw (93 apps)
• 0 PP 55 % Draw (4,491 apps/2,474 available)

Did they post the general combo elk/deer odds ?

 

[Kiwi]

I'm not exactly sure what they have posted I just cut and paste the info and gave up trying to figure it out.

Here is the link - https://myfwp.mt.gov/fwpPub/drawingStatistics

 

[Shangobango]

Not sure what they are doing.

For the Big Game/Elk this says there were 30,947 apps.

3,651 apps for the 3-2.2 row. Is this the folks who got to buy extra points because the were outfitted?

9,336 apps with 2 PP

5,772 apps with 0 PP

So, there are about 12000 apps not accounted for.

There is no info for 1PP applicants. Maybe that accounts for the missing 12000. Were the draw odds with 1PP so bad that they didn’t want to report it?

Actually that is exactly what happened. Any thing less than 2 but greater than 0 was 0%.