Use Promo Code Randy for 20% off OutdoorClass

'22 NR MT Elk Combo Tag Odds 2pp

Wind Gypsy

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 12, 2017
Messages
1,757
Let's hear the predictions - odds in 2022 for a NR applying for the General Elk Combo with 2 PP?
 
Does the outfitter loophole allow someone to leap into the 2 point pool for 2022 that was 0 points going into the 2021 draw? Looks like this is so. And, that adds another 4,000 (WAG) to the 2 point pool.

Did tags get cut for the elk combo? Does not appear so though the outfitter loophole effectively cuts odds for a tag.

If someone turns in the 2021 Elk Combo does that person get their points reinstated? I just read that they do not.

Does the new buyer of that combo lose their points? I just read that they do not.

Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that.

I am setting the over/under at 45% for 2 point applicants in 2022 for the elk combo. I am taking the over.

If you have 1 point, the over under is 5% and I am taking the under.

If 0 points then setting over/under at 8% and I take the over.
 
Last edited:
2 PP = end of 2021 have 2 then buy one going into the draw = pretty solid.
Two total at the draw (1+1)…not so good?
 
Does the outfitter loophole allow someone to leap into the 2 point pool for 2022 that was 0 points going into the 2021 draw? Looks like this is so. And, that adds another 4,000 (WAG) to the 2 point pool.

Did tags get cut for the elk combo? Does not appear so though the outfitter loophole effectively cuts odds for a tag.

If someone turns in the 2021 Elk Combo does that person get their points reinstated? I just read that they do not.

Does the new buyer of that combo lose their points? I just read that they do not.

Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that.

I am setting the over/under at 45% for 2 point applicants in 2022 for the elk combo. I am taking the over.

If you have 1 point, the over under is 5% and I am taking the under.

If 0 points then setting over/under at 8% and I take the over.

I will take the under on your 2pp and put the number around 75-80% success. 1 point I am taking under and feel confident saying odds will be 0%. 0 pts I will take the over and put it qround 45%.
 
I’ll elaborate on specifically why I’m curious how this plays out.. A while back I booked with an outfitter for a private land archery hunt in a unit that was previously in the 900 bundle thinking it might be my best shot at a truly big bull in my lifetime. I see the reality of the glory tags becoming less likely for someone like me who’s only been playing the point game for 8 years.

I hate the idea of turning in a general tag if I fail to draw the permit so I’m considering just buying one PP and going in with 2 vs using the outfitter 2 point option.
 
"Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that."

They actually set aside 25% of the tags for 0 point holders, and most likely will have better odds than the 1 point holders.
 
Does the outfitter loophole allow someone to leap into the 2 point pool for 2022 that was 0 points going into the 2021 draw? Looks like this is so. And, that adds another 4,000 (WAG) to the 2 point pool.

Did tags get cut for the elk combo? Does not appear so though the outfitter loophole effectively cuts odds for a tag.

If someone turns in the 2021 Elk Combo does that person get their points reinstated? I just read that they do not.

Does the new buyer of that combo lose their points? I just read that they do not.

Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that.

I am setting the over/under at 45% for 2 point applicants in 2022 for the elk combo. I am taking the over.

If you have 1 point, the over under is 5% and I am taking the under.

If 0 points then setting over/under at 8% and I take the over.
Yeah, I think the 2 points DIY is the big wild card (and darn it, where I will be)…I think you’ll see a big uptick because of the new outfitter pool + the expiration … eg, lots of folks with 2 points going into the draw will probably avoid buying a third at $100 and risk it + most with 1 going into the draw will buy at the draw so be at 2…so I am now thinking the two point pool will be absolutely flooded.

So I’d go from 45 to 35% but that’s a wild ass guess and I haven’t taken time to really look at any numbers (does MT publish point holders at different point levels?)
 
Yeah, I think the 2 points DIY is the big wild card (and darn it, where I will be)…I think you’ll see a big uptick because of the new outfitter pool + the expiration … eg, lots of folks with 2 points going into the draw will probably avoid buying a third at $100 and risk it + most with 1 going into the draw will buy at the draw so be at 2…so I am now thinking the two point pool will be absolutely flooded.

So I’d go from 45 to 35% but that’s a wild ass guess and I haven’t taken time to really look at any numbers (does MT publish point holders at different point levels?)
35% with 2 pp ? 😂
No……. It’ll be close to 100%
 
I am always befuddled by the Montana point/application questions as to why people apply for there. The only things I have read on HT is how horrible the hunting is anymore and that there’s not a living creature, other than cattle, on public land.

I must be missing something.
 
I have found that going into the 2022 combo draw there are 1,736 people with 1 point, 13,185 with two, and 1 with three points. So in my opinion, this years draw is going to be a shit show.
 
I have found that going into the 2022 combo draw there are 1,736 people with 1 point, 13,185 with two, and 1 with three points. So in my opinion, this years draw is going to be a shit show.
Agreed which is why myself and two friends are not applying for the first time in over a decade. We may be done there unless things get better at some point.
 
I have found that going into the 2022 combo draw there are 1,736 people with 1 point, 13,185 with two, and 1 with three points. So in my opinion, this years draw is going to be a shit show.
How could you possibly know that ? 10,000 people could apply next week all could buy a point and have 1 . U don’t think there was some guys who didn’t apply last year that will have 2 this year . There’s no way for you to accurately say this
 
With the current state of things, $1400 when checking out for your BGC app, $5.00 gas, an interesting economy, and the confusion and disaster of this FWP application process, we might be surprised at the number of people actually applying this year.
Yea I was gonna say the same . Also it might be a good year to be on the alternates list if you want to go that route If turned down in draw
 
How exactly does the new outfitter PP and BP work and how much will that mess up trying to predict your odds?
 
Back
Top