2023 Montana Draw!!!!

[Mountain Man]

So not much incentive to buy preference points. What exactly was the logic to set aside licenses for zero points?

The incentive is to be able to better plan your schedule. The odds of drawing with 0 points will continue to worsen as more people jump in with that approach.

 

[sclancy27]

That’s already covered by people able to purchase 2 preference points if they are going with an outfitter. The odds are better with 2 points compared to 0 points so it isn’t the guide and outfitter that benefits from the allocation to zero point holders.

The 0 point 25% existed before the 2 point buy-in for outfitted clients I thought.

 

[Carnage2011]

The 0 point 25% existed before the 2 point buy-in for outfitted clients I thought.

The reason was to give people entering the draw a chance no matter what. With most preference point systems you're basically screwed until you hit the required points. Now people have the choice to either enter the draw with zero points and have a chance or buy a point and plan on hunting the following year with two.

 

[Mountain Man]

The reason was to give people entering the draw a chance no matter what. With most preference point systems you're basically screwed until you hit the required points. Now people have the choice to either enter the draw with zero points and have a chance or buy a point and plan on hunting the following year with two.

That only makes sense if the preference point level to draw is really high. When the max number of preference points is 3, it is stupid as hell to have a set aside for people with 0 points. Earning 3 points isn't a high hurdle for people jumping in. Plus, a good number of people with 1 point would draw if they removed that set aside. It is a dumb idea that gives MT a bad look.

 

[Carnage2011]

That only makes sense if the preference point level to draw is really high. When the max number of preference points is 3, it is stupid as hell to have a set aside for people with 0 points. Earning 3 points isn't a high hurdle for people jumping in. Plus, a good number of people with 1 point would draw if they removed that set aside. It is a dumb idea that gives MT a bad look.

I disagree, it doesn’t give Montana a bad look. Every state has their own draw process, some are better than others. You are also assuming that 3 will always be the max…I wouldn’t bet on that.

 

[Trial153]

I drew the license but not the permit, I am floored. I had more points going into the permit than anyone who drew last year and thought I was pretty much a lock. Taking 80% rebate and a big kick in the head

 

[Point Creep]

The Idaho deadline is coming right up.

 

[Carnage2011]

The Idaho deadline is coming right up.

You can tag along on my Idaho sheep hunt when I draw...

 

[8andcounting]

I drew the license but not the permit, I am floored. I had more points going into the permit than anyone who drew last year and thought I was pretty much a lock. Taking 80% rebate and a big kick in the head

I opted to keep my bg combo , I drew in the 0 pp pool and then didn’t draw a permit that , based on bonus points , I should have drawn several years ago . But whatever . I’m going elk hunting

 

[brownbear932008]

I drew the license but not the permit, I am floored. I had more points going into the permit than anyone who drew last year and thought I was pretty much a lock. Taking 80% rebate and a big kick in the head

Happened to me for like 3 years before I drew a permit what statistically should have been around an 8 point draw took 11.

 

[mtmuley]

You guys that think that any bonus points for drawing an LE permit gives you a leg up are living a dream. mtmuley

 

[Dakota79]

You guys that think that any bonus points for drawing an LE permit gives you a leg up are living a dream. mtmuley

This is meant as a serious question but can you explain why?Thank you.

 

[mtmuley]

This is meant as a serious question but can you explain why?Thank you.

Why does it help you? Maybe with some easier to draw LE permits the points might. I think basing when you will draw a permit based on bonus points is foolish. mtmuley

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Every state has their own draw process,

and Montana’s is retarded.

 

[Trial153]

and Montana’s is retarded.

It’s is the absolute stupidest anywhere.

 

[Labman]

Why does it help you? Maybe with some easier to draw LE permits the points might. I think basing when you will draw a permit based on bonus points is foolish. mtmuley

In a random drawing (with or without regular bonus points, squared, or cubed bonus points) there is never a certainty of drawing, and there is no way to predict how the chips will fall until they have fallen, but it is foolish to think that bonus points don’t increase your odds in the MT drawing. They’re numbers and it comes down to mathematical probability, not mathematical certainty. The bonus point stats page doesn’t help things by being a bit misleading in the last column. The % successful column shows how many individuals in that point group were successful. Who cares about that statistic, it’s almost meaningless. The column should give you the odds overall since your app is competing with everyone’s, not just those in that point category.

 

[mtmuley]

In a random drawing (with or without regular bonus points, squared, or cubed bonus points) there is never a certainty of drawing, and there is no way to predict how the chips will fall until they have fallen, but it is foolish to think that bonus points don’t increase your odds in the MT drawing. They’re numbers and it comes down to mathematical probability, not mathematical certainty. The bonus point stats page doesn’t help things by being a bit misleading in the last column. The % successful column shows how many individuals in that point group were successful. Who cares about that statistic, it’s almost meaningless. The column should give you the odds overall since your app is competing with everyone’s, not just those in that point category. View attachment 273454

I'll continue to be foolish with all my meaningful points. mtmuley

 

[huntandfly]

So how long until Sy realizes that the new “2 preference points with an outfitter” no longer guarantees the client a tag and starts lobbying to change it to 3?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

It’s is the absolute stupidest anywhere.

You literally couldn’t make a more convoluted cluster-f it’s a total embarrassment.

“So here’s the system”

 

[Carnage2011]

and Montana’s is retarded.

I agree, but that zero point set aside is hardly the biggest issue. There are about 8 other factors much worse.