Wyoming proposed regs

[beaglegun]

There must have been some serious resident comments about the proposed regs/seasons for elk in Area 7 because they made an abrupt change on the Type 1 and 2 seasons and quotas. Maybe Buzz can shed some light on that.

I thought i had a chance to draw a bull tag and the rug was pulled out from under me☹

 

[BuzzH]

There must have been some serious resident comments about the proposed regs/seasons for elk in Area 7 because they made an abrupt change on the Type 1 and 2 seasons and quotas. Maybe Buzz can shed some light on that.

There was a lot of discussion about unit 7 that started a couple months ago. I attended a meeting in Casper with @JM77 where it was discussed at length.

I don't hunt that area for bulls, however, I was in favor of the GF recommendation of splitting the seasons for any bull into a type 1 and 2. For a long time, people have been complaining about elk in unit 7, from too many elk, too many bulls, busted up bulls, trophy quality, too much archery pressure, objective numbers for the herd...really, you name it.

IMO, I thought the proposed season structure solved a lot problems. It would have increased bull tags, lowering the number of bulls in the unit so they didn't bust up as much. It would have decreased over-all pressure in archery, and both rifle seasons. It would have probably worked somewhat to control over-all elk populations since many people shoot cows on the any elk tag, and most have a cow tag that draw bull tags.

The downside was that there were conflicts with ranchers getting their cattle off their leases and potential loss of trophy quality opening the first rifle season 14 days earlier on October 1. Both of which are legitimate concerns.

I just think that unit 7 has so many people hunting it, so much interest, so many different landowners, tons of outfitters, anything is going to be controversial. Changing things up, leaving it the same, all are going to be favorable to some, opposed by others. There is just flat no way to keep everyone happy on how that herd is managed.

 

[Lost Arra]

There was a lot of discussion about unit 7 that started a couple months ago. I attended a meeting in Casper with @JM77 where it was discussed at length.


IMO, I thought the proposed season structure solved a lot problems.

Thanks. I thought the same thing and was hoping they would at least give it a try since about once a month there is a news article about too many elk in SE Wyoming. The new Type 8 did total about 1000 dead elk but the net harvest is probably less since they reduced Type 6 tags.

 

[BuzzH]

Thanks. I thought the same thing and was hoping they would at least give it a try since about once a month there is a news article about too many elk in SE Wyoming. The new Type 8 did total about 1000 dead elk but the net harvest is probably less since they reduced Type 6 tags.

They increased type 6 licenses, or more accurately eliminated type 4's and made them all type 6's. IIRC, I think the overall harvest was about 500 more than usual...still not even close to enough to control the herd out there.

 

[beaglegun]

Reading everything and making a calculated pick worked big time!!! I finally got a LE WY elk license with 5pp!!!

 

[longtail55]

Anybody know if these will be available next week? I believe I saw the commission meets?

 

[Bowmannate2000]

Anybody know if these will be available next week? I believe I saw the commission meets?

The site says to check for updates after March 17.

 

[SAJ-99]

Anybody know if these will be available next week? I believe I saw the commission meets?

I looked up some of the odds/results from last year. Point creep in some units was 3-4pts. I'm not sure how this ever gets "better" without years of favorable conditions.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Point creep will always get worse, we have already seen that first hand in many states.
Matt

 

[TexanSam]

A lot. Tons of NRs with high points who realize they have no realistic shot at a WY any ram tag under the new 90/10

Wait… there wasn’t a horn restriction on rams before?

 

[SAJ-99]

Point creep will always get worse, we have already seen that first hand in many states.
Matt

When the creep gets to be larger than 1pt, you are playing a losing game. You have to be hoping for something external to change the rules of the game.

 

[El Guapo]

Wait… there wasn’t a horn restriction on rams before?

Usually not in Wyoming units. The 3/4 curl tags are <3/4 curl in order to take younger rams that tend to wander into conflict with domestic sheep and carry disease back to the herd units, and mantain a type 1 trophy "any ram" license.

 

[Fool-hearted Footslogger]

Odds predicting is part science and another part art. I worked with some statisticians in some well known Vegas properties years back. I think the saying goes "lies damn lies and statistics" or "the data doesn't lie but statisticians do". You can take the what that the States provide at face value which is the safest, but most guys don't know everything behind the numbers. Each state calculates differently. Some throw landowner or youth tags in totals, before removal and separation into quotas and so on. It's enough to skew the odds a few % points. Your GoHunts, OnX, thetagprospector, huntinfool all do a reasonable job of segmenting the data to try and draw that little extra % out. None, will ever be perfect. The variables that can sway future events are countless. Use the numbers to have a multi-year strategy in conjunction with your own good common sense.

 

[LCH]

Odds predicting is part science and another part art. I worked with some statisticians in some well known Vegas properties years back. I think the saying goes "lies damn lies and statistics" or "the data doesn't lie but statisticians do". You can take the what that the States provide at face value which is the safest, but most guys don't know everything behind the numbers. Each state calculates differently. Some throw landowner or youth tags in totals, before removal and separation into quotas and so on. It's enough to skew the odds a few % points. Your GoHunts, OnX, thetagprospector, huntinfool all do a reasonable job of segmenting the data to try and draw that little extra % out. None, will ever be perfect. The variables that can sway future events are countless. Use the numbers to have a multi-year strategy in conjunction with your own good common sense.

The assertion of 95% accuracy is where they lose me. Easily disprovable by looking at their predictive odds from last year then looking at the actual draw results. It's their best guess, which isn't worthless, but definitely can't bank on it.

 

[Mountain Man]

95% represents two standard deviations on a normal distribution. It is the primary threshold for statistical analysis, which is what they are doing. They are not guessing. Their statistical model might be askew, but thy are definitely not guessing.

 

[madtom]

95% represents two standard deviations on a normal distribution. It is the primary threshold for statistical analysis, which is what they are doing. They are not guessing. Their statistical model might be askew, but thy are definitely not guessing.

I highly doubt they’re using frequentist tests based on a normal distribution. At least I would be disappointed if they hired a stable of professional statisticians to run multiple linear regressions that people learn in undergrad.

I also feel like no one talks about the fact that predicting draw odds and making the info available to masses will inherently alter the drawing odds and make their predictions worse.