kwyeewyk
Well-known member
Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
NR Regular General Quota | 1775 | 1787 | 1764 | 1842 | 1787 | 1737 | 1695 | 1766 | 1603 | 1719 |
12 (Points 1st choice) | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
11 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||
10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
9 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |||||
8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||||
<8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||
7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 6 | |||
6 | 25 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 2 | ||
<6 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
5 | 35 | 26 | 28 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 8 | |
<5 | 36 | 13 | 10 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
4 | 93 | 61 | 43 | 44 | 54 | 37 | 25 | 28 | 32 | 29 |
<4 | 127 | 91 | 80 | 51 | 35 | 28 | 24 | 18 | 17 | 6 |
3 | 636 | 336 | 197 | 112 | 99 | 83 | 66 | 81 | 73 | 70 |
<3 | 511 | 470 | 229 | 165 | 121 | 114 | 58 | 56 | 34 | 48 |
2 | 1031 | 1275 | 1104 | 763 | 506 | 337 | 242 | 256 | 195 | 268 |
<2 | 3456 | 3685 | 619 | 537 | 422 | 311 | 327 | 198 | 182 | 199 |
1 | 3478 | 1247 | 1231 | 1200 | 1131 | 1128 | 874 | 755 | ||
<1 | 2552 | 2725 | 2550 | 2498 | 2628 | 399 | 352 | |||
0 | 2229 | 2325 | ||||||||
Total Applications | 5982 | 6002 | 5834 | 5541 | 5247 | 4687 | 4411 | 4416 | 4046 | 4052 |
Minimum Points to Draw | 2 | 2 | <2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
Odds @ Minimum pts | 27.16% | 58.43% | 4.36% | 8.20% | 40.29% | 66.67% | 80.73%% | 98.05% | 46.37% | 97.37% |
This is for the Regular NR preference point draw, to give an idea of the trajectory. Presumably in 2009 you could get a tag with no points. Total applicants has increased ~50% since 2010. Available tags has stayed pretty level. If you draw for 2020, have 0 points in 2021 draw since you can't buy points the year you draw now, it would be around 2025 to draw again assuming it creeps to 4 points to draw by then. I didn't post the graphs cause they're a little messy, but they might be showing a bit of a leveling off on the creep, but who knows, seems like many are sick of trying to accumulate points only to watch it just keep creeping away from them, so are switching to general only to have the same thing happen here.
This is so true, the NRs circle Wyoming like a bunch of hungry wolves, and flood Colorado instead. I guess waiting to hunt isn't so bad to keep it this way, Washington has unlimited OTC like CO and it's a mess, and that's just residents, we barely get NRs. Too many people is the ultimate curse to good hunting.The 7250 cap on NR full price elk licenses is the number one reason why elk hunting in Wyoming is so remarkably positive, for both LQ hunts and General hunts. IMO.