Yeti GOBOX Collection

Wyoming Points Decision

Year2019201820172016201520142013201220112010
NR Regular General Quota1775178717641842178717371695176616031719
12 (Points 1st choice)31
1130
100031
924223
833332
<825400
736991526
62516131299122
<616101246000
53526282213917218
<53613101767503
493614344543725283229
<412791805135282418176
3636336197112998366817370
<351147022916512111458563448
2103112751104763506337242256195268
<234563685619537422311327198182199
1347812471231120011311128874755
<125522725255024982628399352
022292325
Total Applications5982600258345541524746874411441640464052
Minimum Points to Draw22<211111<1<1
Odds @ Minimum pts27.16%58.43%4.36%8.20%40.29%66.67%80.73%%98.05%46.37%97.37%

This is for the Regular NR preference point draw, to give an idea of the trajectory. Presumably in 2009 you could get a tag with no points. Total applicants has increased ~50% since 2010. Available tags has stayed pretty level. If you draw for 2020, have 0 points in 2021 draw since you can't buy points the year you draw now, it would be around 2025 to draw again assuming it creeps to 4 points to draw by then. I didn't post the graphs cause they're a little messy, but they might be showing a bit of a leveling off on the creep, but who knows, seems like many are sick of trying to accumulate points only to watch it just keep creeping away from them, so are switching to general only to have the same thing happen here.
The 7250 cap on NR full price elk licenses is the number one reason why elk hunting in Wyoming is so remarkably positive, for both LQ hunts and General hunts. IMO.
This is so true, the NRs circle Wyoming like a bunch of hungry wolves, and flood Colorado instead. I guess waiting to hunt isn't so bad to keep it this way, Washington has unlimited OTC like CO and it's a mess, and that's just residents, we barely get NRs. Too many people is the ultimate curse to good hunting.
 
You are observing the effect of two things. First, the economy has improved greatly since 2009. Second, a lot of guys who have churned through their points on higher point units are now doing the General tag. Just a reality of how it is. When the economy tanks, and it will to some degree at some point, expect the numbers to go back down.
 
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I reviewed every elk unit in WY and compared what my goals were with what was available in those units. It took a very long time, but what I found was several general units matched well with what I wanted, so I'll be putting in for general.
 
You are observing the effect of two things. First, the economy has improved greatly since 2009. Second, a lot of guys who have churned through their points on higher point units are now doing the General tag. Just a reality of how it is. When the economy tanks, and it will to some degree at some point, expect the numbers to go back down.
I agree wholeheartedly with this point. I'm a CPA like you and I've seen clients do an awful lot of traveling in the last 3-4 years that was never in their budgets 10 years ago.
 
This is so true, the NRs circle Wyoming like a bunch of hungry wolves, and flood Colorado instead. I guess waiting to hunt isn't so bad to keep it this way, Washington has unlimited OTC like CO and it's a mess, and that's just residents, we barely get NRs. Too many people is the ultimate curse to good hunting.

Barely get is an understatement lol 600 NR in WA versus 71,000 in CO.

I’ve said this about half a dozen times but everyone really needs to pay attention to what happens in CO. Imagine the point creep in MT, WY, etc if CO decides to go fully limited (as is often tossed around at commission meetings by pissed residents), CO provides fully 50% of all NR elk hunting in the US. If CO decides to put in a NR quota of say 40,000 we could easily see the why Gen tag go to 6 points.
 
You are observing the effect of two things. First, the economy has improved greatly since 2009. Second, a lot of guys who have churned through their points on higher point units are now doing the General tag. Just a reality of how it is. When the economy tanks, and it will to some degree at some point, expect the numbers to go back down.

A $1000 bull elk tag seems the norm our West and that is tougher to justify if are worried might lose your job soon or you are losing customers. Add in travel costs to get to and from an out of state hunt, a night in a motel or two, taxidermy, meat processing, etc can quickly be $2500. Average household in America grosses around $50,000 so take out taxes and say $30,000 take-home and where does the average hunter find a $1000 or $2500 on $30,000? I suspect most non-resident elk hunters are making well above $50,000 as a household. Who would have thought we are the Country Club set rather than the Duct Tape set?
 
A $1000 bull elk tag seems the norm our West and that is tougher to justify if are worried might lose your job soon or you are losing customers. Add in travel costs to get to and from an out of state hunt, a night in a motel or two, taxidermy, meat processing, etc can quickly be $2500. Average household in America grosses around $50,000 so take out taxes and say $30,000 take-home and where does the average hunter find a $1000 or $2500 on $30,000? I suspect most non-resident elk hunters are making well above $50,000 as a household. Who would have thought we are the Country Club set rather than the Duct Tape set?
I’m a banker but I think ppl make more than u r staying on average. 30k is borderline poverty level for a household
 
I’m a banker but I think ppl make more than u r staying on average. 30k is borderline poverty level for a household
Either way, I would guess there are more hunters who make over $100K who would be interested to elk hunt than there are tags available - I am guessing they could double the tag price and still sell out.
 
A $1000 bull elk tag seems the norm our West and that is tougher to justify if are worried might lose your job soon or you are losing customers. Add in travel costs to get to and from an out of state hunt, a night in a motel or two, taxidermy, meat processing, etc can quickly be $2500. Average household in America grosses around $50,000 so take out taxes and say $30,000 take-home and where does the average hunter find a $1000 or $2500 on $30,000? I suspect most non-resident elk hunters are making well above $50,000 as a household. Who would have thought we are the Country Club set rather than the Duct Tape set?
Id guess you are underestimating household income of NR elk hunters by at least 75k and hunting households in general by several thousand dollars. That said, hunting is something that can be done for virtually nothing in the state where someone lives. The financial barriers for entry into local hunting in large parts of the US are pretty small.

Western hunting for NR is still going to be aspirational for many and that is fine. NR elk hunters spend staggering amounts of money on gear every year that we like but certainly isnt necessary. States see the amount of money spent and want a part. I can see a day when some states try to test the upper limits of what NR are willing to pay. Vikingsguy is right, I think many would view the opportunity to hunt elk cheap at twice the price.
 
Randy is correct that there will be fluctuations based on the strength of the economy, but I think the trends will continue upward. It will be interesting to see what happens with hunter recruitment and the aging of Boomers. My guess is that it will have no appreciable effect because hunters are looking much further afield than before.
 
I’m a banker but I think ppl make more than u r staying on average. 30k is borderline poverty level for a household

You are correct $50K is too low. Median is now $63K. Median being the household income when you sort all households from least income to most and then find the middlemost household that has the same number of households above and below. Household might be a single person or multiple generations under the same roof so not the median income of an individual.
 
No sense in waiting. There's big elk everywhere. You're not going to kill bigger elk in a unit that's going to be harder to draw all the time. Yes some units have higher averages but, do you want to hunt or sit on a bunch of points? From all my research, you can kill big elk in any general unit. You just have to be willing to put the work into it.
I’m not disagreeing with you, but it REALLY depends on your definition of big.
 
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