WY 2021 deer/antelope results

Shangobango

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I guess if the question is will buck tags in 25/26/113/23 etc be available as leftovers for NR again…. 🤷‍♂️
So let’s say just as a hypothetical next year 12000 people actually apply for 7250 NR WY general elk tags. 6 years from now, for whatever reason, only 8000 people apply. It’s hard for me to see how the odds of drawing the tag don’t get better with less applicants given Wyomings system.

I know that given the current trend many think that apps are going to continue to skyrocket and demand like this is here to stay.

If that is the case then this trend will be the exception to the rule.
 

wllm1313

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So let’s say just as a hypothetical next year 12000 people actually apply for 7250 NR WY general elk tags. 6 years from now, for whatever reason, only 8000 people apply. It’s hard for me to see how the odds of drawing the tag don’t get better with less applicants given Wyomings system.

I know that given the current trend many think that apps are going to continue to skyrocket and demand like this is here to stay.

If that is the case then this trend will be the exception to the rule.
I can see it easing pressure on some units but there would be point creep in a lot of others the only way point creep subsides is if the quota is greater than than number of people in each point pool, right now for most hunts in the west the point pools are greater than the quota. Im mostly talking about 4+ point units.

Though to your general premise I think the numbers are here to stay. I think 6 years from now it will be 18,000 people.
 

Shangobango

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I can see it easing pressure on some units but there would be point creep in a lot of others the only way point creep subsides is if the quota is greater than than number of people in each point pool, right now for most hunts in the west the point pools are greater than the quota. Im mostly talking about 4+ point units.

Though to your general premise I think the numbers are here to stay. I think 6 years from now it will be 18,000 people.

Makes sense.

I think you are right on the numbers being here to stay too but I don’t see it going to 18000 in six years. Wouldn’t suprise in the least if it did though.

I guess what I don’t understand is why there wouldn’t be a ceiling or at least a resistance level at some point.
 

Shangobango

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Just wanted to share again I drew a great mule deer tag in the random with about a 3% chance of drawing. Ya, Wyoming is horrible. 😐
That’s awesome. I drew a turkey tag this season with about an 8% chance in a random draw.

I couldn’t believe I actually drew the tag.

I don’t think Wyoming is horrible at all. I like their system better than any system out there besides the true random systems.
 

RobertD

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I guess what I don’t understand is why there wouldn’t be a ceiling or at least a resistance level at some point.
This is exactly how I feel. Anecdotal but I feel like just in my lifetime certain NR hunting endeavors have surged in popularity and then died down some. Don't see why certain Western hunts won't do the same, just as there are some opportunities out there that aren't as popular now but will get blown up in the future.
 

wllm1313

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This is exactly how I feel. Anecdotal but I feel like just in my lifetime certain NR hunting endeavors have surged in popularity and then died down some. Don't see why certain Western hunts won't do the same, just as there are some opportunities out there that aren't as popular now but will get blown up in the future.
My experience and view is certainly myopic. I started hunting in 2012. Therefore every year that I've been hunting there has been more pressure than the last.

That being said I grew up in CO, and user days in every form of outdoor rec has exploded during my lifetime.

@Shangobango I don't see demand in western tourist hunting declining, because I don't see skiing/biking/camping/rafting etc declining.

Would love to be wrong, but I'm not sure what it would be replaced with.
 

RobertD

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Would love to be wrong, but I'm not sure what it would be replaced with.

I think that's the more difficult aspect of the issue to understand and draw conclusions from.

I remember being a kid, all the guys who want to kill an elk now were the guys who wanted to go kill a whitetail in Illinois or Iowa back then. Texas got really popular for a while too.

But I know that what drives a lot of the interest in western hunting is the public land aspect of it.
As guys get priced out of their lease in Georgia or Pennsylvania or wherever, the west holds a lot of promise. Some of that is permanent.

Still, some of the "new" will wear off of some of the western hunting people are doing now. The guys who do it for Instagram likes will find some new endeavor eventually. Just hard to know what % those guys represent.
 

wllm1313

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I think that's the more difficult aspect of the issue to understand and draw conclusions from.

I remember being a kid, all the guys who want to kill an elk now were the guys who wanted to go kill a whitetail in Illinois or Iowa back then. Texas got really popular for a while too.

But I know that what drives a lot of the interest in western hunting is the public land aspect of it.
As guys get priced out of their lease in Georgia or Pennsylvania or wherever, the west holds a lot of promise. Some of that is permanent.

Still, some of the "new" will wear off of some of the western hunting people are doing now. The guys who do it for Instagram likes will find some new endeavor eventually. Just hard to know what % those guys represent.
Given that there are more whitetail in PA than elk in the US I don’t think demand will decrease.

One exception, if CO went to ~10% NR allocation it would crush western tourist hunting, point creep would get so bad in every state a lot of folks might hang up the towel.
 

madtom

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Anyone have data showing long term sales/demand of NR whitetail tags in the Midwest? @wllm1313?

Interested to know if it’s actually gone down.

Edit: he was typing at the same time I was.
 

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