Ukraine / Russia

[VikingsGuy]

In the face of slower than expected progress, it is starting to appear that Putin is digging into his Chechnya playbook and putting significant effort into attacking non-military targets. This could prove to be a major error in judgment on his part. At this point NATO seems very unlikely to do more than sanction, supply and cheerlead, but if a purposefully targeted civilian death toll rises he may push them into action. This would either end in his removal or nuclear war, as there is no way Putin wins a conventional war with NATO. This is not "smart genius" stuff this is self-destructive/counterproductive stuff.

Russia Targets Ukrainian Civilian Areas in Shift to Demoralize Resistance

Moscow bombards Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, as it switches to a new strategy in a bid to demoralize Ukrainian resistance after failing to achieve a quick victory.

www.wsj.com

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

It has been pretty busy at work recently, but I wondered this evening if anyone was talking about this on HT. Holy smokes....I barely know where to start.

Honestly, I wouldn't waste your time worrying about the tactical whatever in Ukraine. Your time is better spent praying, sending positive vibes, or enlisting in the new Ukraine foreign legion if you want to make a difference. Putin liked to ride the line before, now he is a full on pariah. He, Kim Jong Un, and the Ayatollah can form a club. I would bet that he is out of power in a year. Hopefully via a bloodless coup, and the oligarchs can pick someone else to represent them, so they can try and rebuild the bridges Putin burned for them. As far as China goes, they just got a pretty strong preview as to what messing with Taiwan would get them... There are no similarities between the Russian and Chinese psychology, what is happening in the Ukraine is emotional for Putin, China doesn't work that way.

I am not sure where I heard it, but I like the phrase "History never repeats itself, but it usually rhymes". We are watching Russia expose itself, just like it did in Afghanistan. I have a feeling this little foray will dramatically change the Russia paradigm. The last time the Russian Army tried something of this scale and complexity was in WW2, they are not a professional battle tested Army. Their Hybrid War doctrine, is not proving out, and the investment they made in modernization of their Army is falling pretty flat here too... This is all compounded by a largely conscript Army that is not motivated or believe in their cause, the mass surrender reports are accurate. Russia is falling back on their old standby, atrocity via artillery (see Grozny). It is going to get worse in the Ukraine before it gets better. War is always ugly, mix in some desperation, and it gets real bad. Like I said earlier, just pray the Ukrainians can weather the storm, and for the souls that don't....

Anyway, feel free to go back to whatever was happening here. Not sure what I hoped to accomplish, but you get what you pay for.... Nostrovia!

 

[devon deer]

Big Fin is right, Putin is very smart. The concern right now is he still rational or going insane? If he’s rational, this will get figured out at thousands of deaths. If he’s insane, it might be millions of deaths.

And that is my concern, my worry is that he is actually going/is insane.

 

[devon deer]

For those who may find it useful, the BBC live stream has changed locations. This is the updated link:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60582327

Obviously the BBC is my main source of news, however, some on here might find this more useful, it's for children https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround#more-stories-2;)

 

[antlerradar]

This would either end in his removal or nuclear war, as there is no way Putin wins a conventional war with NATO. This is not "smart genius" stuff this is self-destructive/counterproductive stuff.

Russia Targets Ukrainian Civilian Areas in Shift to Demoralize Resistance

Moscow bombards Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, as it switches to a new strategy in a bid to demoralize Ukrainian resistance after failing to achieve a quick victory.

www.wsj.com

It is the stuff of someone that has had all the people near him sucking up and telling him that he is the smartest and most important person in the world for the last 20 years.

 

[Nameless Range]

Anyway, feel free to go back to whatever was happening here. Not sure what I hoped to accomplish, but you get what you pay for.... Nostrovia!

You always offer informed and balanced perspectives. I value and appreciate it.

As well as the price!

 

[SAJ-99]

As predicted by most here…

Russia, China agree 30-year gas deal via new pipeline, to settle in euros

Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues.

www.reuters.com

 

[BigHornRam]

As predicted by most here…

Russia, China agree 30-year gas deal via new pipeline, to settle in euros

Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues.

www.reuters.com

Ray Charles saw that coming......

 

[Dave N]

That will go along with their coal and wheat deals.

 

[VikingsGuy]

That will go along with their coal and wheat deals.

Yup - this is setting up for a very different "cold war 2.0" scenario than the original since we have pre-armed china with all of our manufacturing capability. Would be nice to go back to the WTO-china discussion in the 90's and have a do-over.

 

[Irrelevant]

No one knows what will happen. The conversation is interesting and all we have is conjecture about something most experts just got wrong. I have learned a lot I did not know a week ago.

Not to keep spamming with youtubes or podcasts, but one thing recent events has allowed for is those people who are black belts in Russian history and culture to become very relevant. I consume a lot of podcasts. This one was recorded today, and the guest is a PHD in Russian and Soviet Military History, and you can tell he lives to geek out on these things, even in these dark times, and I thought he offered a lot of interesting perspectives and thoughts on current and future events. The Podcast is available on all the typical podcast apps.

I would really encourage everyone to give this one a listen to. Great find @Nameless Range

 

[BigHornRam]

Yup - this is setting up for a very different "cold war 2.0" scenario than the original since we have pre-armed china with all of our manufacturing capability. Would be nice to go back to the WTO-china discussion in the 90's and have a do-over.

Lot of do overs would be nice, like gain of function research, but that horse is out of the barn.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Lot of do overs would be nice, like gain of function research, but that horse is out of the barn.

FFS, don’t go there.

 

[BigHornRam]

FFS, don’t go there.

I know. Taboo.

 

[DouglasR]

FFS, don’t go there.

Seriously tho I took this screen shot months ago imagining it’s what @Ben Lamb looks like irl.
*the guy on the left.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Seriously tho I took this screen shot months ago imagining it’s what @Ben Lamb looks like irl.
*the guy on the left.
View attachment 213978

Ben is far more handsome.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Ben is far more handsome.

@DouglasR FIFY... the verb most commonly associated with Mr. Lamb is smolder

 

[Cheesehead]

Ben is far more handsome.

Following

 

[SAJ-99]

Update on sanctions

Ruble still down over 30%.
Apparently, no one wants to own Russian bonds as getting paid is a worse than a coin-flip.

Russia Swaps Signal Record 56% Chance of Default After Sanctions

The cost of insuring Russia’s government debt rose to a record after harder-hitting sanctions on the country prompted Moscow to take emergency measures to shield its financial sector.

www.bloomberg.com

And even the Swiss have decided to join in. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/neutral-swiss-adopt-sanctions-against-russia-2022-02-28/

Estimates put non-ruble reserves ar $600B (about a third of the country's GDP), with about $150B in physical gold. That begs the question on how much can they access if no one can work with Russia Central Bank. I guess China can give them a yuan loan, but anyone who has loaned money to a deadbeat relative will probably be able to estimate how long relationship will hold. If China increases the transactions with Russia there will be a feedback loop on the Yuan requiring them to keep the currency stronger. It is a risky bet.

 

[BigHornRam]

Seriously tho I took this screen shot months ago imagining it’s what @Ben Lamb looks like irl.
*the guy on the left.
View attachment 213978

You were thinking about getting a hairdo like Rand's sporting, weren't you Douglas.