Top Rut

[fez]

Looking at subscribing to toprut to check some draw odds for Arizona. Has anyone used this service? Are they accurate?

I’ve checked out the free stuff and it looks good. I just need to make sure the units I’m looking at don’t have significant point creep as I’m wanting to draw this year.

Thanks for any help

 

[AggieOutlaw]

New Mexico has been...underwhelming.

The odds were "close" to what I calculate but they didn't have every unit/hunt code. Including two of the three I applied for. It's cheap...so I'm not complaining. Hopefully it improves with time too.

 

[LCH]

I like Toprut. Hopefully they'll expand their coverage, they only cover about half the states I hunt currently. Easy to use though, and I haven't found any discrepancies in the odds for what I'm interested in.

 

[mtmuley]

Seems to me, if you can't or don't want to spend the time researching on your own, it diminishes the final result. mtmuley

 

[fez]

Mtmuley. I’ve done plenty of research. Personally I struggle with az draw odds. Any other western state I apply in, I prefer the states website for odds.

 

[Thomas11]

Their odds are legit. There is really no way the average person can truly calculate the exact odds. It has nothing to do with doing your own research. I research all my hunts/units. I just use toprut as an odds calculator. It makes it way simpler and more accurate Than u could do trying to calculate on your own and they have the point pools for NR applying for each hunt which u can’t get on AZ website. It’s more complicated than just dividing the number of apps by tag numbers. It’s 20 dollars for the subscription or free for their basic service which is real similar

 

[Thomas11]

And I use them for every state I apply in not just AZ. Way simpler then using the states site and having less reliable data that u r trying to make sense of. I’ve done that too for yrs before toprut. Research your hunts and use toprut for a odds calculator. Been there done that. Just sayin

 

[NoWiser]

Toprut is the only site I use aside from the State Game & Fish sites. Much cheaper than the others and good info in a simple format. I prefer not to pay a bunch of money to be put in drawings for stuff I don't need and for strategy articles that thousands of others read.

 

[Thomas11]

Toprut is the only site I use aside from the State Game & Fish sites. Much cheaper than the others and good info in a simple format. I prefer not to pay a bunch of money to be put in drawings for stuff I don't need and for strategy articles that thousands of others read.

I agree. I’ve looked at gohunt and I think they do have a lot of info. Obviously more than toprut but it’s not worth the price they charge to me. Some ppl may disagree. But they do offer a quality product. Their content is revelent and beneficial. Just a bit overpriced to me. I as well like topruts format very easy to research and see odds for an entire state in short order

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Not hard to calculate odds and go by the previous year. 25 tags w/ 425 applications = 5.88% chance to draw.your research should determine your unit you want that take 4 years worth of draw odds add them up, divide that by 4. Simple math can save you lots of money. The research is part of the fun!
Matt

 

[npaden]

Not hard to calculate odds and go by the previous year. 25 tags w/ 425 applications = 5.88% chance to draw.your research should determine your unit you want that take 4 years worth of draw odds add them up, divide that by 4. Simple math can save you lots of money. The research is part of the fun!
Matt

That doesn't really work for states with bonus points and multiple choices though. The odds for Nevada that they publish are WAY different than the odds that GoHunt or TopRut are going to give you. For New Mexico I had a way I was calculating odds based on the 3 choices but it didn't take into account that some people are ordering their choices incorrectly and GoHunt and TopRut get the entire database and calculate odds based on the actual choice orders. For the hard to draw hunts it doesn't change things much, but on some of the easier to draw hunts it can make a pretty decent difference.

I'm a cheapskate and I liked TopRut better when it was free. Is it worth $20 to see current odds vs. last years odds? Probably depends on if there have been any changes in rules and regulations and things like that. I would imagine things like Colorado requiring the purchase of a license and New Mexico changing from a refundable license may change the odds this year and next year you would probably want to see how that affected things.

 

[Thomas11]

That doesn't really work for states with bonus points and multiple choices though. The odds for Nevada that they publish are WAY different than the odds that GoHunt or TopRut are going to give you. For New Mexico I had a way I was calculating odds based on the 3 choices but it didn't take into account that some people are ordering their choices incorrectly and GoHunt and TopRut get the entire database and calculate odds based on the actual choice orders. For the hard to draw hunts it doesn't change things much, but on some of the easier to draw hunts it can make a pretty decent difference.

I'm a cheapskate and I liked TopRut better when it was free. Is it worth $20 to see current odds vs. last years odds? Probably depends on if there have been any changes in rules and regulations and things like that. I would imagine things like Colorado requiring the purchase of a license and New Mexico changing from a refundable license may change the odds this year and next year you would probably want to see how that affected things.

I paid the 20 bucks to get this yrs data and plus they have the pt pools for WY as well as AZ.

 

[WapitiBob]

At a minimum, Toprut is a no brainer for anyone semi serious about drawing a tag in AZ. You get the individual point pools for $20. Those reports cost $50 directly from the dept, after filing a FOIA request. Been there, done it, for almost a decade. Their free GE overlays make it even better.
If you want more data, stories, filtering on addl data, etc, GoHunt is a good choice and a sponsor of this site. For AZ, Gohunt uses a graph showing points required over time. At least one of the methods should be used if your serious about AZ.

 

[jrabq]

I think toprut has a $10 option if you only want 2 states. There is no "easy/simple" (and correct) math to calculate odds for AZ, NM, or NV. That's what you are paying for with a toprut or gohunt subscription.

 

[ImBillT]

I did NM by hand for all species for four years, and should have timed myself. I don’t really know how many hours I put in, but it was a long time. Putting harvest percentage, applicants, actual draw results, and hunt dates all in one place and calculating draw odds was very time consuming. I would then use the percentage of people drawing tags as first choice and second choice to determine the probability that a second or third choice applicant would draw their first or second choice before getting to the hunt in question. I don’t make a lot of money, and it still comes out way cheaper to just pay for GoHunt. I now have great info in AZ and UT essentially as a bonus, where I previously only took the time to skim over draw results on a handful of hunts that interested me.

 

[Thomas11]

At a minimum, Toprut is a no brainer for anyone semi serious about drawing a tag in AZ. You get the individual point pools for $20. Those reports cost $50 directly from the dept, after filing a FOIA request. Been there, done it, for almost a decade. Their free GE overlays make it even better.
If you want more data, stories, filtering on addl data, etc, GoHunt is a good choice and a sponsor of this site. For AZ, Gohunt uses a graph showing points required over time. At least one of the methods should be used if your serious about AZ.

Spot on advice all the way around. I mean your buying a $150 license in AZ every yr or two just to apply. I would think ppl want to know what their up against and that doesn’t the other states

 

[AggieOutlaw]

Not hard to calculate odds and go by the previous year. 25 tags w/ 425 applications = 5.88% chance to draw.your research should determine your unit you want that take 4 years worth of draw odds add them up, divide that by 4. Simple math can save you lots of money. The research is part of the fun!
Matt

I agree it's fun...but I would say that simple math doesn't always work in all western states. Even in NM which doesn't have points, it is not so simple to accurately calculate the odds since the order of your application choices matters. X divided by N will get you in the ballpark tho.

 

[Sdhunters]

At a minimum, Toprut is a no brainer for anyone semi serious about drawing a tag in AZ. You get the individual point pools for $20. Those reports cost $50 directly from the dept, after filing a FOIA request. Been there, done it, for almost a decade. Their free GE overlays make it even better.
If you want more data, stories, filtering on addl data, etc, GoHunt is a good choice and a sponsor of this site. For AZ, Gohunt uses a graph showing points required over time. At least one of the methods should be used if your serious about AZ.

Have to agree with BOB. The PP breakdown and the KLM map GE overlay are well worth the investment.

 

[prhunter]

I have been using TopRut since they started. No complaints.

 

[fez]

Thanks to all those that helped. It’s good to know the odds are accurate and helpful in applying. Now I’ll figure out what do I do with 9 deer points.