The future of Preference Points

Ben Lamb

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great idea, if you don't fill your tag, that earns you a PP

Counter point: No preference or bonus points at all. Have a real democratic allocation of the resource: 1 application - 1 chance. No more buying your way to the front of the line, etc.

Just a straight up random draw for everything. Resident/NR split still remains negotiable within the wide range of 90/10.
 

Irishman

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Counter point: No preference or bonus points at all. Have a real democratic allocation of the resource: 1 application - 1 chance. No more buying your way to the front of the line, etc.

Just a straight up random draw for everything. Resident/NR split still remains negotiable within the wide range of 90/10.
Problem is that people paid for years to get to the point they had a better chance of drawing. I guess you could just stop the process of adding additional points.
 

Ben Lamb

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Problem is that people paid for years to get to the point they had a better chance of drawing. I guess you could just stop the process of adding additional points.

I'm one of those people. I'm ok with losing that cash, as it goes to conservation anyway. In the interest of compromise, I'd say a 5 year phase out could be added though.
 

Irishman

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I have 12 WA goat points. My 144 chances, for the $160 I've put into it, has raised my chances from 0.022% to 0.034%...
I've got 22 years of moose and sheep points. It's not the money that's an issue, it's that I've waited 22 years to have a better chance, and it is significantly better than having zero points.
 

Irishman

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How far do you want to go to level the playing field? Charge residents and non residents the same price for tags? Give residents and non residents the same odds of drawing a permit or license? The playing field is never level, there are preferences given for where you live and how often you apply.
 

huntin24/7

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I’m still a fan of your basic bonus point system where you have a slightly better chance to draw for each year you apply. No squaring points. You get one more point after each year you don’t draw. Guys with 0 or 1 point still have reasonable chances of drawing good tags as well. I think converting preference points to bonus points isn’t a bad option for states considering doing away with preference points. At least those applicants who’ve been in the application game for a long time are still rewarded with slightly better draw odds.
 

Mighty Mouse

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I may be in the minority, but I like a true preference point system (like Colorado's) because it gives me the ability to plan hunts years in advance with some degree of confidence about when I'll draw the tag.
 

rustednuts

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I'm a fan of if you hunt the species you don't get a point that year. If you hunt, OTC, second draw, leftover, return doesn't matter if you have a tag you don't get a point. All of us, myself included that hunt OTC in CO & AZ are double-dipping and it just raises the PP requirement on lower-level hunts.
 

Ben Lamb

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How far do you want to go to level the playing field? Charge residents and non residents the same price for tags? Give residents and non residents the same odds of drawing a permit or license? The playing field is never level, there are preferences given for where you live and how often you apply.

Allocation of Resident Versus Non-Resident is a decision about the equitable allocation of the resource, absolutely. However, when you apply the lens of the public trust doctrine & how wildlife is managed primarily for the benefit of the residents of each state, I think the ruling stands that 90/10 is still equitable for the resident, and fits within the general desire of NR's to hunt each state.

One hunter lives there, pays taxes, votes, contributes to the overall well-being of the state while the other is merely a visitor. Going to a 50/50 allocation for R & NR would be an unequitable shift, IMO.
 

wllm

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Here is a chart from toprut showing a weighted point system (colorado) versus bonus points, bonus squared.

I added in the red line to show your odds if it was a straight lottery.


Not the limitation here is it's not showing your odds over time, it's showing your odds if you had that many points in that specific year.

As well all know there is an increasing number of applicants.

So this particular unit might have had 44 tags for 1000 applicants, but next year it might have 44 tags for 1400 applicants then 44 tags for 1650 applicants and so forth. So these are actually peak odds, with them diminishing from this point each year.

Today someone with 16pts might have 25.8% odds but in 20 years those odds might be 5% for 16pts and random odds would be .9%

The caveat is that proportionally fewer people are likely to jump into a long odd lottery than they are a point scheme... which is why they exist.

Would you apply for a 4.4% odd draw for 16 years or would you rather apply for 16 years knowing at the end your odds will be 25.8%.

Most folks it's the latter, which then turns it into a bait in switch because by the time you get to year 16 so many people have entered the draw that the odds are far worse.

Meanwhile if you had stayed with the lottery, fewer people will have jumped in and your odds might have only declined to 2 or 3%.
1656353996989.png
 

VikingsGuy

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Allocation of Resident Versus Non-Resident is a decision about the equitable allocation of the resource, absolutely. However, when you apply the lens of the public trust doctrine & how wildlife is managed primarily for the benefit of the residents of each state, I think the ruling stands that 90/10 is still equitable for the resident, and fits within the general desire of NR's to hunt each state.

One hunter lives there, pays taxes, votes, contributes to the overall well-being of the state while the other is merely a visitor. Going to a 50/50 allocation for R & NR would be an unequitable shift, IMO.
Also, the animals are held in trust for ALL state citizens, even though that don't hunt. "Giving up" 10% of tags by a state is not NR charity, it is a chance for non-hunting citizens to reap some economic benefit from animals they will never hunt via NR hunter spend in state.
 

wllm

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I may be in the minority, but I like a true preference point system (like Colorado's) because it gives me the ability to plan hunts years in advance with some degree of confidence about when I'll draw the tag.
Yeah, but it only works till about 5 points. Preference points work great up to 5 points.

Case and point if you are a NR and you have less than max points -1 or 2 and you are over 20 years old you will never draw the Oso bear tag, it's mathematically impossible.

Same for elk 2/201 for NR over maybe 40 with less than like max -7.

There are just too many people in front of you, even if you are extraordinarily long lived and everyone else is doing meth you still don't have a chance.
 

neffa3

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I'd wager that people actually interested in hunting would see drastically higher odds of drawing because with out the ability to "buy" a preference point, and this mythical idea that you're actually getting something for your money, most joe-schmoes wouldn't even bother applying.

Point schemes are simply sales pitches, you're buying a mythical opportunity that isn't actually doing you any good.

There are >500 people at the same Mountain Goat bonus point level as me. They issued 17 goat tags this year. In the next 50 yrs of buying points they may not even get through my point level, let alone all the people above me and the hoards below me. 19k people put in the 17 goat tags. IT'S A JOKE! THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE DRAWING ADVANTAGE!

Edit: I see that while I was actually working the master @wllm provided much better info
 

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