Tariffs and Potential Inflation

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ismith said:
Want me to walk you through it?
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Apparently. Let me help. Who is ‘they’ and where is the 30% coming from? None of where you are going is the point. The point was political views driving economic beliefs is a bad idea. Reality is reality. The good news is I see Trump walking back a lot of campaign promises and slow playing the tariff idea. But we haven’t even started the game yet.
 
SAJ-99 said:
Apparently. Let me help. Who is ‘they’ and where is the 30% coming from? None of where you are going is the point. The point was political views driving economic beliefs is a bad idea. Reality is reality. The good news is I see Trump walking back a lot of campaign promises and slow playing the tariff idea. But we haven’t even started the game yet.
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Do Republicans expect Trump to raise the Fed rates to 30%, because it would likely take that to get us to 0% inflation. I think you just demonstrated your point to perfection. Trump wants to drop the Fed rate as fast as possible, ensuring higher inflation rates.
 
ismith said:
Do Republicans expect Trump to raise the Fed rates to 30%, because it would likely take that to get us to 0% inflation. I think you just demonstrated your point to perfection. Trump wants to drop the Fed rate as fast as possible, ensuring higher inflation rates.
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I have no idea what they are thinking other than “my guy won so all that stuff I complained about will magically disappear”. He doesn’t control FF rates. Thank goodness.
 
SAJ-99 said:
I have no idea what they are thinking other than “my guy won so all that stuff I complained about will magically disappear”. He doesn’t control FF rates. Thank goodness.
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You are getting all lathered up over a stupid poll conducted by University of Michigan. It's worth what you paid for it.
 
The rest of the world works a lot. Huge factories, 100's of millions of laborers. US companies import large amounts of goods. Trade deficits in the 100's of billions. We borrow trillions of $ and the rest of the world buys our debt. This is possible because the dollar is the reserve currency. We claim the rest of the world is ripping us off when in fact we are ripping them. Disrupting supply chains and a trade war will create hyperinflation in the US. Predictions: Real shortages this time. $10 gas this summer.
 
Huntin' Fool said:
The rest of the world works a lot. Huge factories, 100's of millions of laborers. US companies import large amounts of goods. Trade deficits in the 100's of billions. We borrow trillions of $ and the rest of the world buys our debt. This is possible because the dollar is the reserve currency. We claim the rest of the world is ripping us off when in fact we are ripping them. Disrupting supply chains and a trade war will create hyperinflation in the US. Predictions: Real shortages this time. $10 gas this summer.
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Interesting prediction at the end.

Though I hope you are wrong, I'm not one to take the bet against it.
 
BigHornRam said:
I will take that bet!

How about some boring inflation analysis news, versus wild speculation?

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The funny part is that is an opinion masquerading as news. The phrase “markets could reset…” gives it away. The market has one cut of 25 priced in. Yeah, it could price in more. Or it could not. The market is reality and is waiting to see what happens. If it doesn’t price in more, the orange guy is going to go crazy.
 
BigHornRam said:
I will take that bet!

How about some boring inflation analysis news, versus wild speculation?

Click to expand...
No big deal.

It's all speculation.

A bunch of people contributing to a news story about predicting what other people are going to do months from now.

My biggest concern is how volatile the county is right now.

We have lawsuits, and assassination attempts, housing going up at crazy rates, push for more clean energy, and a society that generally has little respect for their neighbor. All kinds of wild things going on right now.

A recipe for disaster.

The disaster may never come, or it may come tomorrow.

I am just one not to take a bet on it.

An example from the other day.

My parents were talking about how expensive everything is. Their expectation is that Trump is going to lower gas prices and it will make everything cheaper. Sounds good until oil prices get so low, companies can't make money on it, shutting down wells, and causing a bigger problem.

It's all speculation.

They could be right, or I could be right.

I prepare and expect things to get worse, especially with the nation's debt clock and turmoil at the various levels of leadership in the country.

If I'm wrong, great. But if I'm right, at least I'm in the right mindset so I'm not too pissed about everything going sideways.
 
SAJ-99 said:
The funny part is that is an opinion masquerading as news. The phrase “markets could reset…” gives it away. The market has one cut of 25 priced in. Yeah, it could price in more. Or it could not. The market is reality and is waiting to see what happens. If it doesn’t price in more, the orange guy is going to go crazy.
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Your tds is flaring, SAJ-99. Put some ointment on it.
 
mevertsen said:
No big deal.

It's all speculation.

A bunch of people contributing to a news story about predicting what other people are going to do months from now.

My biggest concern is how volatile the county is right now.

We have lawsuits, and assassination attempts, housing going up at crazy rates, push for more clean energy, and a society that generally has little respect for their neighbor. All kinds of wild things going on right now.

A recipe for disaster.

The disaster may never come, or it may come tomorrow.

I am just one not to take a bet on it.

An example from the other day.

My parents were talking about how expensive everything is. Their expectation is that Trump is going to lower gas prices and it will make everything cheaper. Sounds good until oil prices get so low, companies can't make money on it, shutting down wells, and causing a bigger problem.

It's all speculation.

They could be right, or I could be right.

I prepare and expect things to get worse, especially with the nation's debt clock and turmoil at the various levels of leadership in the country.

If I'm wrong, great. But if I'm right, at least I'm in the right mindset so I'm not too pissed about everything going sideways.
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This is my biggest concern, and how our country deals with this problem in the years to come.


No hyperbole in Rubio's response.
 
move along folks... nothing to see here. China has not been milking the U.S. - This is strickly a Trump, Biden, and Trump setting of raising tariffs for no known reason. Leave it to the armchair winner HT analysis players here... including my own amazing position.
1737048809345.png
 
mevertsen said:
No big deal.

It's all speculation.

A bunch of people contributing to a news story about predicting what other people are going to do months from now.

My biggest concern is how volatile the county is right now.

We have lawsuits, and assassination attempts, housing going up at crazy rates, push for more clean energy, and a society that generally has little respect for their neighbor. All kinds of wild things going on right now.

A recipe for disaster.

The disaster may never come, or it may come tomorrow.

I am just one not to take a bet on it.

An example from the other day.

My parents were talking about how expensive everything is. Their expectation is that Trump is going to lower gas prices and it will make everything cheaper. Sounds good until oil prices get so low, companies can't make money on it, shutting down wells, and causing a bigger problem.

It's all speculation.

They could be right, or I could be right.

I prepare and expect things to get worse, especially with the nation's debt clock and turmoil at the various levels of leadership in the country.

If I'm wrong, great. But if I'm right, at least I'm in the right mindset so I'm not too pissed about everything going sideways.
Click to expand...
I think this is different than you intended, but the push for clean energy is a big market thing, lots of money involved, and Trumps threats are already showing signs of killing that economic driver.

Solar panel maker based in my state--we need more domestic production many of the rest come from China--decided NOT to move ahead wiith a Major expansion--because of Trump and the uncertainty of future his plans indicate for that industry. This would have been a huge expansion employing people in a part of our state that is really hurting too.

So....words matter, even if the person saying them knows they are lies while doing so.
 
Actually had a major mutual fund company advisor I was talking to the other day claim they are very worried with the new administration and are advising many to get prepared. In decades of working with them they have ALWAYS taken pains to separate the economy from any influence by who is in power.

Says something about the seriousness of the concern, IMO.
 
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