Statistics Calculation

[Washington Hunter]

Is anybody here good with statistics? I used to know how to do this, but it's been too long and I don't remember. Here's the scenario:

I want to apply for a deer permit, and an elk permit, in a particular state. The odds of drawing the deer permit is 1 in 6, and the elk permit 1 in 9. What are the odds of drawing BOTH??? I don't want to draw both, but would like to apply for both, which gives me better odds of drawing just one. I know it's not that difficult to calculate this, with a scientific calculator, but I'm too lazy to look up the formula. I haven't had to do statistics for over 10 years, since I was in "collage."

Thanks in advance! How 'bout you Moosie? You can't spell, can you do math???

If nobody on this board can give me an answer, I'll be forced to go to a "smarter" board, like Monster Muleys....

 

[JoseCuervo]

Isn't Tom the statistician? Or is he the English major?

 

[Washington Hunter]

Isn't Tom the statistician? Or is he the English major?

Yes, it seems he is a statistics guy. But I doubt if he wants to help out a public land "welfare hunter."

 

[JoseCuervo]

Then try .16 x .11 = Prob of both.

 

[mtmiller]

1/(9*6)=1.85% ????? I think that is right

 

[JoseCuervo]

1/(9*6)=1.85% ????? I think that is right

The same answer I got, with the 16.66667% x 11.111111% = 1.85.

 

[Washington Hunter]

Oh really? Is that what it is? Just the percent of each multiplied together? I knew it was something simple like that. So, doing that, and without any rounding of the numbers, it comes out to a 1 in 54 chance of drawing both. OK, I think that's low enough odds that I will apply for both, and hope for 1.

Thanks JC.

 

[Washington Hunter]

Oh, more posts while I was thinking, I see.

Of course miller knows stats, a biologist would have to do that stuff all the time.

I converted the percent to a ratio, or whatever that's called. Anybody want to know how to do that? It's really difficult. Use the 1/x key on your calculator.

 

[mtmiller]

Of course miller knows stats, a biologist would have to do that stuff all the time.

A research bio would, the "mitigation" biologist, not so much.

 

[Washington Hunter]

A research bio would, the "mitigation" biologist, not so much.

Oh, so have you not done stats since "collage" as well?

 

[Washington Hunter]

BTW, this is for Idaho. I'm giving up on Wyoming for this year. Oregon, Idaho, and Washington should be more than enough to keep me busy.

 

[Wazzu_Cougar]

Hey WH,
Where do you hunt elk in Washington. Do you stay on this side and go after roosie's or do you head east?

 

[Washington Hunter]

I have always hunted the east side, just because I enjoy the (somewhat) open country more. But, just yesterday, I decided I am done with eastern Washington, the crowds of people, and the spike only season. I'll be hunting this side of the mountains this year. Have always wanted to kill a big roosevelt bull anyway. No time better than the present is what I'm thinking.

 

[Moosie]

Drawing hunting odds are not as Easy as the Math up above. It's a Complicated theory and very hard to come to the right conclusion. Here is what I derived from my years of putting in for different states :

The drawing odds are ALWAYS 50/50. Either you draw or you don't. If you get the tag you were lucky, if you don't then you're not. Now, That being said, there are always variables in hunt drawing. Like, "A", is your Wife pregnant and going to give birth aroun the time you would be going on said hunt ? If that Answer is yes you Instantly get an Extra 25% odds added to you drawing. I mean .. I don't care if there is 1 tag in 1,000 all of a sudden you're at the 75% odds of drawing.

If you put in for several GREAT hunts the odds of you drawing both are higher as well. If you put in for only one great hunt, your odds go down alot.

I'm sure others know this Math variable I through out and probably have more examples of Unknown variables but it's a Fact, 99% of the time it's a 50% odds of drawing, Either you do, or you don't.

....Your Welcome

 

[Washington Hunter]

Well I guess that simplifies things Moosie. Don't even need a calculator to figure the odds that way! I'll remember that.

I can either draw it, or not. So, that's 1 in 2, or 50%. Thanks Moosie. Should've known you'd be the only one who would know how to do it the right way.

 

[Moosie]

Your welcome. I've never understood that Calculator thing anyway ?!?!?! I mean sure, It's good for adding my $4/hr wage up to see how much I get each week but thats Other Symbols like * or / don't really make sense