brocksw
Well-known member
Yes, that’s the point I was trying to make. The disease will do the same or maybe worse sooner or later (once prevalence rates hit ~30%).
Only took 23 years
- Thread starter Nick87
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Nick87
Well-known member
The entire state isnt in cwd culling area. Not even close and the area that has/had the most of it pales in comparison to deer density to other parts of the state befire cwd was even a thing. Just pointing out that 15k compared to 600 to 700k isn't a great comparisonThe most current number available (without digging too deep) is 14,661 culled (cumulatively) from 2003-2020.
Source:
However, current estimates have the Illinois deer population estimated at 600,000-700,000 as of 2024.Evaluating the ability of a locally focused culling program in removing chronic wasting disease infected free‐ranging white‐tailed deer in Illinois, USA, 2003–2020 - PMC
In northern Illinois, chronic wasting disease (CWD) was first identified in free‐ranging white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter referred to as “deer”) in 2002. To reduce CWD transmission rates in Illinois, wildlife biologists have ...pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Nick87
Well-known member
Then what? Im not a cwd denier BTW but I am very skeptical of how its been handled here at home.
brocksw
Well-known member
15k is a drop in the bucket compared to statewide populations. It’s why I find some of the claims so difficult. A running total of 15k deer culled over 20+ years, in a state with around 700k deer, and yet if you listen to some hunters, you’d think the state was removing half the deer of the landscape. Harvest statistics, population numbers, culling data, nothing supports that type of negative impact.
Nick87
Well-known member
If you look at deer densities across northern Illinois compared to SW wisconsin Id imagine the spread would be naturally slower here anyway. There are counties of large areas therefore where there really isnt any deer habitat to connect the isolated herds. When compared to SW wisconsin. Idk know if that matters but I would think it would and is something I've always thought about.
Nick87
Well-known member
But they aren't removing 14k from 700k they're removing 14 from a handful of counties. Thats the point I was trying to make.
brocksw
Well-known member
I’m not sure anyone has the answer to that. Based on anecdotal reports and population statistics, it appears each population can have different end results. For instance, I’ve talked to landowners, hunters, game wardens and Biologists in SW Saskatchewan who all say the same thing. Seeing end stage deer is a fairly regular occurrence, the population has been heavily inpacted(even though they haven’t culled in almost 20 years. And with 80% prevalence that shouldn’t surprise anyone.
I also talked to a rancher in central Wyoming, just north of Riverton who was featured in a WyoFile article. He said the disease has destroyed deer numbers. Him and his neighbors have gone through phases where seeing sick deer is a regular occurrence. I asked him about winters, drought, other factors that might contribute, and he just laughed at me. He said his family has been on that ranch since the early 1900s, and he’s seen bad winters and fluctuations in numbers before, but this is different. He quit offering guided deer hunts anymore because he has so few deer. But he also said out of the deer they tested, 98% tested positive. This was all before the winter of 2023.
Some of the CWD endemic Mule deer populations in CO have not risen to that high of a prevalence like in WY and SK. Why? I don’t know. IIRC genetics hasn’t changed enough in those herds to explain that discrepancy. I certainly don’t have the answer to that question.
I think Wisconsin will be very telling as to what we can expect from whitetail herds. Will prevalence continue to flatten out in WI, or will it start increasing again? What happens if it gets to 70-80% like in pockets in WY and SK? I’d guess whitetails won’t be impacted quite as negatively as Mule deer, but that’s only speculation at this point.
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brocksw
Well-known member
Yes, but even if we’re talking 250,000-300,000 deer in Northern IL, ~1000 deer culled a year over almost 20 years is still not enough to make a huge difference.
Nick87
Well-known member
When it first started it was only a handful like 6 to 8 counties iirc. It was a lot for a small area when you look at deer density across the state. The northern part probably has the lowest or one of the lowest deer density and once again that number doesn't reflect the amount that was killed by hunters with extra seasons and extra tags very few of which were tested.
brocksw
Well-known member
Perhaps, but from everything I’ve read and learned about that history in Illinois, it sounds like deer were causing a significant problem before CWD came into the picture, and harvests were increased before 2003 to deal with landowner complaints and depredation issues. So, some of that increased harvest was already in the works before CWD was found.
So, while added hunter harvest due to CWD efforts probably did have some impact on deer numbers, Id wager that it’s still probably not as significant as some hunters make it out to be. Hunters have a tendency to do that. Whether it’s exaggerating the size of the fish, the spread of the antlers, or the number of deer taken off the landscape in the name of CWD, hunter perceptions aren’t always the most accurate. That’s not to say there isn’t some validity there, or exceptions to that but it’s probably overstated.
Nick87
Well-known member
No seasons were added before CWD. We went from 7 days of gun season to 14 days total. Prior to 03 ish if you didnt apply first lottery you more than likely weren't getting a full season gun tag. Fast forward after cwd you can buy however many you want otc. So many that they never sell out. Which counties were the depredation issues in? I like getting your input on this and was hoping you'd chime in btw.
brocksw
Well-known member
I dont recall specific counties being mentioned outside of the culling that was happening in the 90s around Chicago.
There was also an IDNR biologist on a podcast talking about the unsustainable deer numbers in Illinois back in the 2000s. I think it was the “huntr” podcast? I’d have to do some digging to pinpoint the episode.
But there’s IDNR documents talking about deer problems back then too.
Another interesting perspective in this discussion is deer/vehicle collisions to put into perspective the number of deer culled vs getting hit by cars.
Nick87
Well-known member
Yah its interesting. I dont understand how they can use that wje. The counties aren't created equal. Apply at how many more vehichles are on some roads compared to others. I dont know why they use that for a data point. Very skewed imo.
Nick87
Well-known member
Coincidentally enough no culling for cwd around Chicago.
brocksw
Well-known member
Perhaps a liability issue? Too many people and chances for things to go wrong and someone or their property gets shot? That’s a wild ass guess but… I would be concerned about that if I was IDNR.
brocksw
Well-known member
What I find interesting is that you have 2 completely separate datasets that point towards increasing deer pops.
The motor vehicle collisions and the harvest data I shared back on page one, both start showing substantial increases in the mid 90s.
Nick87
Well-known member
A couple of the areas around Chicago are just as populated that do receive the culling. Not all of cook county is skyscrapers and all that. But yah.
Nick87
Well-known member
Motor vehicle collisions is how Illinois determines deer density.
Sask hunter
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Of course they did but you combine that with 20 years of trying to kill all the deer through open culls or way too many tags and you get where we are. Shut down almost all the mulie doe tags in Sask last year. Before we could draw doe tags every year and most areas were 2 doe tags. Now they changed all the mulie hunting to bucks only and certain areas are shut down completely.
The first year they did a cull here it was OTC earn a buck. Between that and the hard winter that followed the survey they flew had half as many deer as the before hand. And our deer density is no where near as high as most states
brocksw
Well-known member
That’s a lot of collisions. I mean hunters are freaking out over 1000 deer being culled in a year and meanwhile 25k deer a year were being turned into road dust on the hwy.
