Next Draw System to Implode

[Zim]

Since the point scheme thread was pretty popular, I was curious what state system HuntTalkers thought would be the next to see major changes. Those seeing serious declines in ground floor applicants and their money are the greatest at risk no doubt. These days I am always strategizing where to burn points before they are devalued by system “change”.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

By implode I assume you mean devalue points in some way?

 

[Ben Sellers]

I think it will be Colorado. It may not be exactly what you're looking for but I think the OTC system will get caps like in Idaho within 5 to ten years.

 

[Letthemgrow]

You used the word "next".
I'm curious, which was the first?

Seems like most states experienced an increase in the number of applicants this year.
I'm trying to burn through points at this stage of my life, as it seems you are, but I don't see any downturn in the near future to the number of people vying for the limited number of tags available.

 

[TOGIE]

colorado is just out of hand in complexity, especially with the bear tag bs

i don't know if the draw system will necessarily implode, but stuff will have to give when you consider the multiple seasons complexity, the recent change with breaks between seasons, the otc madness, the bear tag madness, various mule deer declines, specific elk herd declines, and the possibility of wolves

without getting political, you can't negate the potential effects of a *edit* once *edit* purple state increasingly changing in state level legislative and head of administration dynamics

stuff will be changing here for sure

 

[Pucky Freak]

CO b/c human population increase, TABOR, P&W leadership sometimes clueless about multi-state draw strategy, and even in-state draw strategy, NC explosion, predator management by popular vote,and liberal moving politics.

Approach to issues over the last couple of years has seemed to be incremental, poorly thought out and over complicated small changes “fixes”, where as a complete overhaul is probably needed.

Can’t imagine the build points plus hunt an antler elk tag every year scheme to last too much longer.

 

[Blackcats06]

CO b/c human population increase, TABOR, P&W leadership sometimes clueless about multi-state draw strategy, and even in-state draw strategy, NC explosion, predator management by popular vote,and liberal moving politics.

Approach to issues over the last couple of years has seemed to be incremental, poorly thought out and over complicated small changes “fixes”, where as a complete overhaul is probably needed.

Can’t imagine the build points plus hunt an antler elk tag every year scheme to last too much longer.

im with you on the being able to hunt and build points. I believe Colorado will put everything to a draw and you’ll lose points for any choice like arizona I believe that would decrease point creep as people want to hunt and can’t get a second choice and keep their points.

 

[mevertsen]

im with you on the being able to hunt and build points. I believe Colorado will put everything to a draw and you’ll lose points for any choice like arizona I believe that would decrease point creep as people want to hunt and can’t get a second choice and keep their points.

Nevada is this way as well for the first and second draws.

5 choices and you loose your points if you draw a tag.

Colorado and Montana seem to be the most confusing to me.

 

[Desk Pop]

If you look at the past three years in Colorado sheep, goat and moose, they are making a crapload of money. Originally you fronted tag fees. Then they made it almost free to apply without having to front tag fees. That lasted a year, but it drew so many new people who decided to stay when they went to the current system of $100 per point plus a $90 mandatory license. Now it costs $390 to apply for sheep, goat and moose combined as an NR and sales are through the roof.

I think they will ride the S/G/M thing how they have it for a while.

 

[Desk Pop]

It will be interesting. Another converse question to ponder is this: how long can New Mexico and Idaho keep their pointless system with the crazy growth in interest in western hunting?

Right now those two states are appealing to NR, especially those new to western draws, because there is no point system. NM is tough because the 6% NR DIY quota is a gut punch. In Idaho right now it is almost $300 out of pocket to put in for deer/elk/antelope or sheep or goat or moose. Currently sheep and goat odds are about 1 in 50 for the worst hunts, a couple of which are comparable to the Montana unlimiteds in sheep density and terrain, but way less pressure. Those are not bad odds currently, but remember that odds for top hunts in unit 11 and 37 are not close to 1 in 50 for NR. Deer/elk/antelope do not have great odds either for the decent hunts simply because you can put in for all three.

As fees raise, as well as many new applicants entering the game and going straight to Idaho and NM draws, at what point of decreasing odds do people stop applying simply because they cannot get a point for their unsuccessful applications? The question goes both ways, and it is impossible to predict.

Fish and Game departments will do whatever they think will bring in the most money. They all want a balance between not pissing off loyal customers who have invested for decades while still appealing to new folks.

 

[Desk Pop]

Since the point scheme thread was pretty popular, I was curious what state system HuntTalkers thought would be the next to see major changes. Those seeing serious declines in ground floor applicants and their money are the greatest at risk no doubt. These days I am always strategizing where to burn points before they are devalued by system “change”.

What states are declining in ground floor applications? It seems to me like most are rising at an insane pace.

 

[vanish]

Colorado OTC archery elk hunting units are slowly disappearing. At some point soon, there will be so few left with so many hunters it will all move to the draw.

With everyone moving to the draw, there will be fewer people who can even try to draw the better tags (only those who have a way to elk hunt every year without a 1st choice app), and the complaining will rise. This will possibly lead to something like more hybrid draws.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Colorado OTC archery elk hunting units are slowly disappearing. At some point soon, there will be so few left with so many hunters it will all move to the draw.

With everyone moving to the draw, there will be fewer people who can even try to draw the better tags (only those who have a way to elk hunt every year without a 1st choice app), and the complaining will rise. This will possibly lead to something like more hybrid draws.

There are a pile of tags each year on the leftover/reissued lists each year. Going full limited will mean that there are even more. There will be lots of units with quotas for tags that far exceed demand.

The leftover list will be the new OTC and lots of people will still build points and hunt those units. SW CO archery is a great example of this in practice.

 

[Zim]

What states are declining in ground floor applications? It seems to me like most are rising at an insane pace.

Nevada & Maine. That’s because ground floor applicants face horrendous odds when you consider all the squared and multiplied points of the long invested hunters in front of them. That is ultimately why I think those systems are at the greatest risk to morph. Another issue in Maine is the guide lobby finally getting 20% of NR tags converted to outfitter welfare. That is just a foot in the door as we all know. That cancer will spread.

 

[S.Dak Drifter]

South Dakota really has a bad elk system in place considering they CUBE points.... I still can't believe they thought that was a good idea.

 

[NoWiser]

South Dakota really has a bad elk system in place considering they CUBE points.... I still can't believe they thought that was a good idea.

The selfishness displayed there made me want to puke. Pushed through by the same generation that rips on millennials for being entitled.

 

[Desk Pop]

Nevada & Maine. That’s because ground floor applicants face horrendous odds when you consider all the squared and multiplied points of the long invested hunters in front of them. That is ultimately why I think those systems are at the greatest risk to morph. Another issue in Maine is the guide lobby finally getting 20% of NR tags converted to outfitter welfare. That is just a foot in the door as we all know. That cancer will spread.

This is completely false information you are peddling.

New Nevada NR applicants are way up and rising steadily. The following screen shots are summaries from 2019 NR draws. I picked one unit from elk, deer, antelope, desert bighorn and cali bighorn. I chose the units in each respective species that had the most total applicants.

Clearly their system is working just fine for them.

 

[LuketheDog]

Colorado will not "implode", especially for deer and elk, that's just wishful thinking from the guys with few points chasing the popular units. Although, they will likely have to change OTC to a capped OTC system, and make it harder to retain points when picking up a non-OTC tag. CPW should take the application fees back to an up-front charge though. Changing it the way they did a few years ago was just plain stupid, I know a guy who served on the commission then and at the time he said it was ludicrous that they even considered it.

 

[Cornell2012]

IMO, point systems like this (limited supply; demand growth that outpaces supply growth) are destined to only be effective for short time periods. There are certain units where a new hunter starting applications today can apply their entire life for a top-tier tag, and be guaranteed to not draw it by the time they turn 90. As it becomes clear that the top-tier tags are out of reach, the focus will start shifting to second-tier tags, eventually making those unattainable too.

Point systems are designed to retain people already in the system, not help those just getting started. It almost feels like a way for the states to "cash out" on tag availability, but once the equity is gone, the whole system collapses.

In the long run, states that have a reasonable random component to their point systems are going to be better off than states with pure preference point systems.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Nevada & Maine. That’s because ground floor applicants face horrendous odds when you consider all the squared and multiplied points of the long invested hunters in front of them. That is ultimately why I think those systems are at the greatest risk to morph. Another issue in Maine is the guide lobby finally getting 20% of NR tags converted to outfitter welfare. That is just a foot in the door as we all know. That cancer will spread.

Just wishful thinking on your part. You're hoping it happens somewhere so you can say "I told you so".
You complain about Nevada EVERY year yet you keep applying here.