New points theory

[ImBillT]

For example: my dad drew a unit 40 deer tag in Idaho 3 times in 7 years, how is that fair.
Buddy drew a certain bull tag twice in 4 years, wife hasn’t drawn it 0 for 5…..
Now with a 5 year wait that gives someone else a chance to draw that tag….
I totally think Random is the way to go, just longer waiting periods for both residents and non-residents
Matt

A) There will be those who get lucky in a random system, BUT there are those who get lucky in pure preference as well. Get in in year one, get lucky and draw 201 CO, drop a tier while max points is only 1 and you have zero etc. etc. It definitely happened. The worst part is, if you entered the system too late, you will NEVER be able to draw a lot of those tags. Is that really more fair?

B) You’re not looking at their entire draw lifetimes. 10 years isn’t much of a draw history. Yes, in a random system some will be more lucky than others, BUT over 40-50 year period, it will be more even than over or 4 or 10 year period.

 

[ImBillT]

Yes, because that's not how it works.

QQ

But that’s exactly how it works for people who enter in year two or three or ten. The point system only works the way most people want it to for the people who enter within the first few years.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Put a five year wait on it, and do you think they’ll go five years between hunts, or just add more states? Once they’ve added more states how have your draw odds improved?

So what if they apply in more states? Do I give a shit about my odds?, no cause everyone has the same chance I do….. ie random
Matt

 

[ImBillT]

So what if they apply in more states? Do I give a shit about my odds?, no cause everyone has the same chance I do….. ie random
Matt

You missing something here. Just because everyone has the same odds in a random system doesn’t mean that the odds stay the same from year to year. Increasing applicants will decrease odds. Plenty of guys only apply out of state in a few states. Put a wait period in place, and they will automatically increase the number of states they apply in. What does that mean? It means more applicants in every state, and thus lower odds. The whole point of the wait period is supposed to be to increase odds, but it really doesn’t.

Imagine there are only five states, all are random, and each state has 10,000 applicants, all of which apply in two states. That is 50,000 total applications, generated by a total of 25,000 unique applicants, spread out to only 10,000 applications per state. If you institute a five year wait period, and then everyone goes to applying in all five states in hopes of not waiting five years to go hunting, you will now have 125,000 total applications, generated by the same 25,000 unique applicants, putting in 25,000 applications per state. So each state had the same number of tags as they did when there were only 10,000 applicants, but now there are 25,000 applicants. Draw odds in each state are 40% of what they were before the rule change. Total draw odds remain unchanged. What definitely changed was how many applications we had to pay for and how far we had to drive. In real life, the people who can’t afford to apply in enough states to avoid the wait end up with lower odds AND a wait period, while people who can apply in enough states to avoid the wait loose nothing and gain nothing.

Let say 1000 people want to hunt a hunt code with 100 tags. Play that out for 50 years. 5,000 tags have been issued to 1,000 people. Now institute a five year wait period. Play that out for 50 years. How many tags got issued? 5,000. How many people were applying for them? 1,000. Tag/hunters will always be your long term odds regardless of the system.

Draw systems don’t increase supply or decrease demand. They may increase demand. In point states I get a point for almost everything. In NM I only apply for 2-3 species. I’m not interested in scheduling conflicts hunting more than 2-3 hunts per year, and I don’t really want to spend $1800 on Ibex or Oryx right now. If it was a point state I’d thrown $10 down on a point just in case I wanted to do it someday.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Still everyone has the same odds……
Matt

 

[fowladdict]

Still everyone has the same odds……
Matt

....and you can't cheat the system.

 

[fowladdict]

If it was a point state I’d thrown $10 down on a point just in case I wanted to do it someday.

Excellent reason for not having a point system.

 

[ImBillT]

Still everyone has the same odds……
Matt

Everyone having the same odds as everyone else is excellent, and I like that. The point is that the wait period actually doesn’t improve anyone’s odds. It makes them worse or leaves them the same depending on how many people apply in which states during their wait period. What’s the point in that?

Random is good. Wait periods should be reserved only for certain tiers. Utah has wait periods on limited entry, but you can still hunt general elk and general deer during the wait period. If you could not hunt a general tag during your wait period in Utah, a LOT of Utah residents would branch out to other states during their wait period. Can you imagine the applicant load that would be generated across the West if CO instituted a mandatory 5yr wait after you hunted any elk tag including OTC? I’m not entirely against some sort of a wait period(for certain grades of tags) in a random system because it does eliminate the occasional lucky guy drawing great tags back to back and everyone else throwing a fit about it, BUT mathematically I’m not sure it makes a meaningful difference in draw odds in a closed system, but I’m 100% certain that in an open system with other states to apply in, wait periods actually leave draw odds the same or worse.

Do you really think a 5yr wait period on a deer hunt with 60% draw odds is a good thing? Even a 1yr wait period would leave that hunt code with leftover tags. It would not relieve pressure on the more desirable hunt codes, it would increase pressure on them because no one wants to be penalized for five years because they hunted a marginal tag.

 

[Lilhowie83]

Completely Random and 5 year waiting period on anything “antlered”?
Matt

I like keeping it completely random. But I want to keep waiting period 1 year not 5. And it took me 16 trys to draw the Elk unit that I did last year. Thats what I like about random, some people are just luckier than others.

 

[Buffs35]

I hunt in different states almost every year (big game, small game, waterfowl), and I like the confidence points provide. I know that I am all but guaranteed to get a Wyoming pronghorn tag if I apply this year because I will have more than enough points for the modest units I apply in. I believe point systems should be tweaked, and many on here have excellent and reasoned ideas. Far more likely that glory tags will be reserved only for residents, than preestablished point jurisdictions blowing the whole thing up.

 

[Zim]

Anybody else get one of these? If you get one, don’t delete it. Just say YES and make the time like I did. That’s how you contribute productively.

 

[Desk Pop]

You would trade 24 points for a Strip or Pauns rifle tag? You, me and everyone else!

The Pauns rifle tag has 448yrs worth of applicants and the Strip has 692yrs worth of applicants. But I guess since you’re 24 years into your 448+ year journey, you feel like you earned it.

Again, this guy can draw a Pauns tag next year with his UT points if he is flexible with weapon choice (and may be able to draw rifle). It isn't theoretical...he just has to put in. Utah isn't all random draw.

 

[Zim]

I have 25 NR deer points in Utah and was going to burn them on the lone Pauns archery tag but CODOW changed my mind with their preference point survey. Quite obvious it’s time to dump and run there!

 

[Desk Pop]

I have 26 NR deer points in Utah and was going to burn them on the lone Pauns archery tag but CODOW changed my mind with their preference point survey. Quite obvious it’s time to dump and run there!

You can get the archery, muzzy or rifle Pauns tag with 26 points. Go hunting.

 

[seeth07]

There are tags that ain’t worth a five year wait period. I’d be 100% fine with a multi-tiered system for wait periods. Just as Utah has general deer, limited entry deer, and premium limited entry deer, I’d be fine with “no-wait” grade hunt codes, a “5yr wait” hunt codes and “o-I-l” hunt codes. All on the same app. You don’t have to put all three different classes on your. You could do all three choices with o-I-l hunts, or mix with o-I-l and 5yr wait, or all three choices 5yr wait codes, or make your third choice a no-wait code. Draw o-I-l and that whole list of codes is forever off limits for your applications. Draw a 5yr wait, and for 5yrs you cannot apply for any code within that class, but can still apply for o-I-l or no-wait class codes.

Of all ideas, thoughts and arguments about this topic, this concept is hands down the best idea mean that if we polled the general hunting public, I'd bet that a vast majority would be in support of it.

 

[Zim]

You can get the archery, muzzy or rifle Pauns tag with 26 points. Go hunting.

I want the archery hunt, which takes place the same time CO unit 61 archery elk. So I have to pick one or the other. Plus after waiting so long I don’t want to compromise either. Been there done that.

 

[Desk Pop]

I want the archery hunt, which takes place the same time CO unit 61 archery elk. So I have to pick one or the other. Plus after waiting so long I don’t want to compromise either. Been there done that.

Well hope whichever one you do is a good hunt for you.

 

[Duck-Slayer]

Everyone having the same odds as everyone else is excellent, and I like that. The point is that the wait period actually doesn’t improve anyone’s odds. It makes them worse or leaves them the same depending on how many people apply in which states during their wait period. What’s the point in that?

Random is good. Wait periods should be reserved only for certain tiers. Utah has wait periods on limited entry, but you can still hunt general elk and general deer during the wait period. If you could not hunt a general tag during your wait period in Utah, a LOT of Utah residents would branch out to other states during their wait period. Can you imagine the applicant load that would be generated across the West if CO instituted a mandatory 5yr wait after you hunted any elk tag including OTC? I’m not entirely against some sort of a wait period(for certain grades of tags) in a random system because it does eliminate the occasional lucky guy drawing great tags back to back and everyone else throwing a fit about it, BUT mathematically I’m not sure it makes a meaningful difference in draw odds in a closed system, but I’m 100% certain that in an open system with other states to apply in, wait periods actually leave draw odds the same or worse.

Do you really think a 5yr wait period on a deer hunt with 60% draw odds is a good thing? Even a 1yr wait period would leave that hunt code with leftover tags. It would not relieve pressure on the more desirable hunt codes, it would increase pressure on them because no one wants to be penalized for five years because they hunted a marginal tag.

I’ll re clarify, all leftover and OTC tags are not subject to the 5 year wait. Only if you draw your 1st choice in the first draw. Now the 2nd draw this 5 year wait would not apply, any tags left after the 2nd draw go in the OTC pile. So pretty much like Idaho’s draw now.
Matt

 

[gilbe]

Anybody else get one of these? If you get one, don’t delete it. Just say YES and make the time like I did. That’s how you contribute productively.

View attachment 212482

I received the email and filled out the form.

 

[ImBillT]

I’ll re clarify, all leftover and OTC tags are not subject to the 5 year wait. Only if you draw your 1st choice in the first draw. Now the 2nd draw this 5 year wait would not apply, any tags left after the 2nd draw go in the OTC pile. So pretty much like Idaho’s draw now.
Matt

Why bother with the expense of a second draw when you could just do a second choice? But yes, I think we’re getting closer to agreement.

I like the part of NM’s and AZ’s systems which allow 2-3 choices before moving to the next applicant. More choices make it harder to draw the less desirable but still desired hunts, but too few choices stacks everyone together at the top tier and would leave a lot of mid tier hunts going secondary(especially if there is a penalty) so maybe AZ has it right with just 2. NV is definitely overboard with 5. I’m saying 2-3 choices before the NEXT APPLICANT. Let’s say you get 2 choices that result in a wait period, then they move to the next applicant. After all applications have been examined, they go back and examine choices number 3+. If we’re talking wait periods I would be open to imposing a wait period on the first two choices but not on subsequent choices, or going with tiers, or an OTC option. As long as there is an outlet for the less desirable hunts to be hunted without punishment, the wait period can have a positive effect on tag distribution. I do think it is most cost effective for states and for hunters to conduct as much as possible through a single draw rather than having a secondary draw, and then left overs.