Can anyone verify how party apps are drawn in New Mexico? Specifically, if there are 2 party members, and your name is drawn but there is only one tag left for your choice. Do they allot an extra tag for the other party member like Wyoming? I've looked all over their website and couldn't find much on the way party apps work there. TIA!
New Mexico Party App?
- Thread starter JoltnJoe
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No, NM will go to the next app if you have more applicants in your party than there are tags available. They are not like Wyoming. Proceed with caution when doing party apps in NM.
AggieOutlaw
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Yep. Sound advice here for the NR NM Party App Hunter.
ImBillT
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So, this isn’t in NM issued literature, but is what I gather via examination of actual draw results. I will use a fictitious example to make things more clear if that’s possible for someone of my abilities. If we pretend there are 20 tags for a hunt, using the NM allocation of 84% Res, 10% outfitter and 6% res, there would be 16.8 Res tags, 2 outfitter tags and 1.2 non-res tags. Rather than limit the non-res tags to one, or give the residents 17 tags, it appears as though it follows more of a quota type system where tags are issued until the quota is met but the total can not be exceeded. In the 20 tag example, the outfitter pool has exactly two tags, and that will be the result unless less than two outifitters apply. For the Res and non-Res however, there are partial tags avaialbe. The residents are guaranteed 16 tags and the non-residents are guaranteed 1 tag. The remaining tag in the 20 tag total becomes a sort of wild card. Essentially, if two non-Res tags are issued before the 17th resident draws, then there will be 16 residents, 2 non-Res and one 2 outfitters, but if 17 resident tags are issued before the second non-Res is drawn, then there will be 17 residents, 1 non-Res and 2 outfitters. The result then is that in a two person app there must be at least 17 tags available(16x.06=.96 thus 0-1 non-Res tags will be issued. 17x.06=1.02 this 1-2 non-Res tags will be issued) you will have to be there first non-Res drawn, AND you will also have to be drawn before the 15th resident. Real odds seem to be very near( nonres apps/(total tagsX.06)) divide those odds by the number of people in the party IF there are at least as many tags available as there are hunters in the party app.
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Thanks for all the feedback folks. I'm playing NM as a longshot or home run state with the hunts I'm applying for being no greater than 15% draw success for unguided nonresidents, but was curious about the party app issue. If by chance you do draw, and are lucky enough to seal the deal, it sure is nice to have 2 bodies for a pack out. Good luck to all in both application and hunting season!
ImBillT
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^^^ you’re allowed up to three non-hunting guests in NM. They can stay with you, or go alone onto any BLM or forest service land without a hunting license. With a license they can hunt game that’s in season on state land. There is plenty of good fishing, historical sites, cave dwellings etc. You can go alone and let them do their thing, and make the first trip back alone and meet up with them for the rest of the pack out. The best option is to find a good buddy and make a pact. If one of you draws a tag, you both go.
I took my dad and hunted solo. I got him a license and was hoping he would get some bird hunting in, but he got altitude sickness and stayed in or very near camp the whole time.
I took my dad and hunted solo. I got him a license and was hoping he would get some bird hunting in, but he got altitude sickness and stayed in or very near camp the whole time.
Are you 100% on this??? Ive dug as much as i could and spoke to 3 diff ppl at game and fish and got a couple diff answers..
Can you tell me what you think happens with 5 tags, how they would be allocated? I was told that the res. pool will always round up to the nearest whole number. Meaning they will get the 17 tags no matter what. So in the 5 tags case...4 to res(5 if applied), 1 to guided, and 0 to non-res (no matter what)... last year i was told by an official that if no guided had applied that the tag would then rollover to the non-res pool... wrong.... fake news. What a shit show. No one is on the same page down there i feel. Talked to chad nelson today and he said that the res pool always rounds up no matter what. ???
beginnerhunter
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Solo it is then! Still not much chance for parties in many units. Although, if you wanted to go with a buddy could you just agree that if one person draws then you split the cost of a unit-wide LO tag? I guess you don't always know where those will be available before the draw...
It will be interesting to see how the NR fee increase will impact the draw odds. My theory is it will slightly help the odds in the hard-to-draw units and hurt the odds in the easier-to-draw units.
It will be interesting to see how the NR fee increase will impact the draw odds. My theory is it will slightly help the odds in the hard-to-draw units and hurt the odds in the easier-to-draw units.
Just an update -
20 tags = 17 go to res.(actual is 16.8, they ALWAYS round up to nearest whole #.....no matter what the decimal point is for resident pool)
2 go to outfitter pool (actual is 2, roundup to nearest whole number if its .5 or greater)
1 go to non-res.(actual is 1.2, if it were 1.5 they would round to the nearest whole number)
- it is state law to over allocate tags if the math represents itself. Meaning, if rounding up to the nearest whole number were to make it 21 tags they will issue 21. It has nothing to do with who drew what tag first.
20 tags = 17 go to res.(actual is 16.8, they ALWAYS round up to nearest whole #.....no matter what the decimal point is for resident pool)
2 go to outfitter pool (actual is 2, roundup to nearest whole number if its .5 or greater)
1 go to non-res.(actual is 1.2, if it were 1.5 they would round to the nearest whole number)
- it is state law to over allocate tags if the math represents itself. Meaning, if rounding up to the nearest whole number were to make it 21 tags they will issue 21. It has nothing to do with who drew what tag first.
Your math looks correct to me, nice work.
In reviewing last few years draw stats, NR tags are often reduced to 5% from 6% in units with lower total tags. Although in just a brief review there does not seem to be too many of the more desirable units with significant populations of elk that have 20 or less total tags? But as described above if you are applying for party app especially as a NR, you certainly should make sure there are enough tags available before you apply. It is my understanding that many applicants place their draw order incorrectly which virtually eliminates the possibility statistically from drawing their 2nd/3rd choices. Anyway, I still like the system as I am not a fan of the point system. Good luck to everyone.
In reviewing last few years draw stats, NR tags are often reduced to 5% from 6% in units with lower total tags. Although in just a brief review there does not seem to be too many of the more desirable units with significant populations of elk that have 20 or less total tags? But as described above if you are applying for party app especially as a NR, you certainly should make sure there are enough tags available before you apply. It is my understanding that many applicants place their draw order incorrectly which virtually eliminates the possibility statistically from drawing their 2nd/3rd choices. Anyway, I still like the system as I am not a fan of the point system. Good luck to everyone.
Riplip please explain.... Do you mean that the applicants are putting less sought after tags first? Its my understanding that NM will go through all 3 choices before moving to the next applicant? i.e. If you are in a party of 2 and there is one tag remaining for your first choice, but 2 tags for your second choice, your party will be awarded the second choice and then they move on to the next drawn applicant?
blueridge
Well-known member
Toprut's website has a good article on it. If you don't order your choices by draw odds (as opposed to "preference"), you've likely wasted your subsequent choices.
blueridge
Well-known member
Just to flesh it out more, here's an example with some actual numbers from an odds subscription website:
Unit X late archery: 2.4%
Unit Y muzzleloader: 7.1%
Unit Z first rifle: 14.8%
Total draw odds are always equal to your easiest to draw choice. So here's two ways to do it with the projected draw odds throughout the application:
Here's ordering by odds:
1. Unit X archery: 2.4%
2. Unit Y muzzleloader: 4.7%
3. Unit Z rifle: 7.7%
Total: 14.8%
Here's ordering in reverse:
1. Unit Z rifle: 14.8%
2. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 0%
3. Unit X archery: 0%
But what if there are other factors in my personal preference when I am prioritizing the hunts? My friend can go with me during muzzleloader but not during rifle or archery, so if I had my druthers I would rather do that one if I can draw it. So thinking this I do the following:
1. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 7.1%
2. Unit X archery: 0%
3. Unit Z Rifle: 7.7%
Total: 14.8%
In this case I would have totally wasted the #2 choice, because if when the computer comes to you and there aren't tags for Unit Y, chances are that Unit X, being more difficult that Unit Y to draw, is long gone as well.
That's the way I understand it. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
Unit X late archery: 2.4%
Unit Y muzzleloader: 7.1%
Unit Z first rifle: 14.8%
Total draw odds are always equal to your easiest to draw choice. So here's two ways to do it with the projected draw odds throughout the application:
Here's ordering by odds:
1. Unit X archery: 2.4%
2. Unit Y muzzleloader: 4.7%
3. Unit Z rifle: 7.7%
Total: 14.8%
Here's ordering in reverse:
1. Unit Z rifle: 14.8%
2. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 0%
3. Unit X archery: 0%
But what if there are other factors in my personal preference when I am prioritizing the hunts? My friend can go with me during muzzleloader but not during rifle or archery, so if I had my druthers I would rather do that one if I can draw it. So thinking this I do the following:
1. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 7.1%
2. Unit X archery: 0%
3. Unit Z Rifle: 7.7%
Total: 14.8%
In this case I would have totally wasted the #2 choice, because if when the computer comes to you and there aren't tags for Unit Y, chances are that Unit X, being more difficult that Unit Y to draw, is long gone as well.
That's the way I understand it. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
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CForest
Active member
I think you are mostly correct I just don't understand why your odds keep changing?? They are what they are, if it's 14.8% it should be that way all the way through. So in your last example it should read:
1. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 7.1%
2. Unit X archery: 0%
3. Unit Z Rifle: 14.8%
Odds of drawing a tag: 14.8%
You still have the same odds of drawing the muzzy or rifle as if they were in the correct order. You're just wasting your 2nd choice as its odds were lower than 1st choice. But there is no reason the rifle drops to 10.1%, it is still 14.8%. Same with the muzzy.
To me the correct order to apply in is this:
1. Unit X archery: 2.4%
2. Unit Y muzzleloader: 7.1%
3. Unit Z rifle: 14.8%
Chance of drawing a tag: 14.8%
The best chance you have at drawing a tag is whichever hunt has the highest draw odd, doesn't matter what your other 2 choices are.
As to the party apps, they can do more harm than good unless they are used in a hunt that has a pile of tags.
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blueridge
Well-known member
Sorry, I pulled the muzzleloader odds from the 1st example, not the unit odds. I edited my previous post to correct it. The last example should have been, showing the odds of actually drawing each of these choice:
1. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 7.1%
2. Unit X archery: 0%
3. Unit Z Rifle: 7.7%
Chance of drawing tag: 14.8%.
Those are correct b/c statistically the sum of all individual choices will always equal the total draw odds (chance of drawing a tag), which are always equal to the highest draw odds.
1. Unit Y Muzzleloader: 7.1%
2. Unit X archery: 0%
3. Unit Z Rifle: 7.7%
Chance of drawing tag: 14.8%.
Those are correct b/c statistically the sum of all individual choices will always equal the total draw odds (chance of drawing a tag), which are always equal to the highest draw odds.
