antlerradar
Well-known member
This is true, but those people are likely going to enter the draw, regardless of if there is squared points so the squared point keep your odd from falling as fast.
MT- M/S/G results 26
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cgasner1
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Appreciate the post ever once in a while I get reminded how much time we spend talking in circles my next 11 days are going to be to busy for this you boys have fun solving the problems of the Montana draw system or lack of
seeth07
Well-known member
It is a fun problem where math was likely used to promote the system but probably only showed it without telling the whole story or forgetting that either tag amount will drop or participation will increase.
1 tag unit, 10 original applicants and every year, 2 new people apply to replace the one that drew and 1 additional applicant. Did both ends of the spectrum with an assumption that the highest point total draws and the lowest draws every year. Reality is it would fall somewhere between both extremes over the course of 25 years. You can see that even by year 10, regular bonus starts to diverge to just a plain random draw and if I would extend this out to year 25, it would get very close
Irishman
Well-known member
Looks like you are a non resident, so in your case, maybe the squared system of bonus points doesn't change your odds much, but for residents it does. Unlike most things discussed here, math is not a matter of opinion - the squared system rewards those who have been in the game longer.
However, I see you don't want to reward those that have been in the game longer, and those who are residents. I'm not sure that would go down well here.
Irishman
Well-known member
Interesting spreadsheet. Thank goodness the number of people applying doesn't increase by 20% per year.
seeth07
Well-known member
I'm not saying it does, I'm saying it increases by 10% per year and that could be via having 10% more applicants or by reducing tags by 10% which has absolutely happened over the last 25 years.
Just from the tag side as mentioned in a previous post here is the reduction in tags over the last 20:
Moose tags 2006 610 vs 2026 312.
Sheep tags 2006 332 vs 2026 105.
Goat tags 2006 293 vs 180.
Big Sky Guy
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Fixed it for you.
Question for the group: are hunters more convinced of antler point restrictions or bonus/preference points systems working in their favor?
Irishman
Well-known member
I've spent hours studying the draw statistics, calculating spreadsheets, trying to figure out what my odds might be. My odds for the units that I've applied in are approximately twice what they would be on the squared system, than they are on straight bonus points, and way way higher than if there was no bonus points system. The number of people taking part in the draw each year only grows by a few percent. I've been surprised by the percent of people with lots of points that drop out - I assume that this is because some draw the license, some move out of state, some quit hunting, and some I'm sure die. Bottom line is that the system helps those that keep applying year after year. I just wish they had started it 10 years earlier.
Nick28
Active member
One of these years I'm hoping I can say "successful" in a sheep/goat/moose thread. Not this year
Mattff200
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I think we all feel that way.
Jules Winnfield
Well-known member
And another big fat zero for MSG...year 22 or 23 now? I can't remember how long it has been, but this is getting depressing.
Stone_Ice_1
Well-known member
Some of you really seem to struggle with math. Here is a spreadsheet that might help clear a few things up on the bonus points. It certainly helps your draw odds to have more points and even better at max. I took all the Moose districts in Montana and combined all the drawing by points. I only looked at either sex tags and residents. While I don't include non-residents, to show my point it is not needed, it just complicates things.
This was for the 2025 draw. Stats for 2026 aren't out as of yet. This shows the number of people with each amount of points, how many were successful and the percent at each bonus point level. As you can see the best odds were at max points (4.7%) last year. I am sure some will point out that certain number of points had higher odds even though they had less points, such as 19 points had 4.5% chance of drawing and 23 points only had 2.7%. This is the random part of this drawing coming through since these percents are what ACTUALLY happened in the draw. Using statistical theory you can calculate the odds of each person, but in practice that doesn't happen every time. Think about it this way, if you flip a coin 4 times you know it should come up heads twice and tails twice by theory, but that doesn't always happen in practice....this is the random part.
| Number of Points | Number of Applications | Number of Successes | % Successful |
0 | 2864 | 0 | 0.0% |
1 | 3692 | 0 | 0.0% |
2 | 3363 | 1 | 0.0% |
3 | 2996 | 4 | 0.1% |
4 | 2555 | 3 | 0.1% |
5 | 2287 | 3 | 0.1% |
6 | 1898 | 12 | 0.6% |
7 | 1688 | 5 | 0.3% |
8 | 1506 | 7 | 0.5% |
9 | 1337 | 8 | 0.6% |
10 | 1119 | 7 | 0.6% |
11 | 1038 | 8 | 0.8% |
12 | 984 | 14 | 1.4% |
13 | 608 | 3 | 0.5% |
14 | 553 | 10 | 1.8% |
15 | 519 | 9 | 1.7% |
16 | 494 | 7 | 1.4% |
17 | 482 | 7 | 1.5% |
18 | 427 | 8 | 1.9% |
19 | 402 | 18 | 4.5% |
20 | 383 | 15 | 3.9% |
21 | 380 | 14 | 3.7% |
22 | 374 | 16 | 4.3% |
23 | 370 | 10 | 2.7% |
24 | 465 | 19 | 4.1% |
25 | 490 | 23 | 4.7% |
This was for the 2025 draw. Stats for 2026 aren't out as of yet. This shows the number of people with each amount of points, how many were successful and the percent at each bonus point level. As you can see the best odds were at max points (4.7%) last year. I am sure some will point out that certain number of points had higher odds even though they had less points, such as 19 points had 4.5% chance of drawing and 23 points only had 2.7%. This is the random part of this drawing coming through since these percents are what ACTUALLY happened in the draw. Using statistical theory you can calculate the odds of each person, but in practice that doesn't happen every time. Think about it this way, if you flip a coin 4 times you know it should come up heads twice and tails twice by theory, but that doesn't always happen in practice....this is the random part.
seeth07
Well-known member
You too aren't understanding it. Yes, having 25 bonus points puts you significantly further ahead in your draw odds than the guy with 5 points. What you are looking over is the fact that the "4.7%" chance to draw that you see in that above chart you created for that top group of maximum point holders is that it is FALLING every year. Last year it probably was 4.6%. Was probably 5% 5 years ago. 15 years ago it was probably 10%.
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Frequently Banned Troll
Well-known member
I can agree that the massive influx of NEW people throwing in, due to the super low cost of entry and the massive hype, media, simplified data sources, and influencers guiding people to the draw out there these days is killing us.
Stone_Ice_1
Well-known member
That is probably true, I haven't looked at the numbers. But the reason for that isn't the method (Bonus Points), it's the other things pointed out (less tags, more people). My point is about the bonus points not working. They certainly work as intended.
I'm a big fan of the pay up front, I think numbers would decrease significantly. Its amazing how many people I know that apply just cause they can and it costs them nothing. If they had to pay up front, they wouldn't apply, regardless of if they get it back or not.
samuel_284Win
Well-known member
Awesome, big congrats
samuel_284Win
Well-known member
I had no idea I would lead the graduates for hooding, it was super cool
Big Sky Guy
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You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
| Number of Points | Number of Applications | Number of Successes | % Successful | Number of Entries | Actual Odds |
| 0 | 2864 | 0 | 0.0% | 2864 | 0.000033% |
| 1 | 3692 | 0 | 0.0% | 7384 | 0.000066% |
| 2 | 3363 | 1 | 0.0% | 13452 | 0.000165% |
| 3 | 2996 | 4 | 0.1% | 26964 | 0.000330% |
| 4 | 2555 | 3 | 0.1% | 40880 | 0.000561% |
| 5 | 2287 | 3 | 0.1% | 57175 | 0.000857% |
| 6 | 1898 | 12 | 0.6% | 68328 | 0.001220% |
| 7 | 1688 | 5 | 0.3% | 82712 | 0.001649% |
| 8 | 1506 | 7 | 0.5% | 96384 | 0.002144% |
| 9 | 1337 | 8 | 0.6% | 108297 | 0.002704% |
| 10 | 1119 | 7 | 0.6% | 111900 | 0.003331% |
| 11 | 1038 | 8 | 0.8% | 125598 | 0.004023% |
| 12 | 984 | 14 | 1.4% | 141696 | 0.004782% |
| 13 | 608 | 3 | 0.5% | 102752 | 0.005606% |
| 14 | 553 | 10 | 1.8% | 108388 | 0.006497% |
| 15 | 519 | 9 | 1.7% | 116775 | 0.007453% |
| 16 | 494 | 7 | 1.4% | 126464 | 0.008475% |
| 17 | 482 | 7 | 1.5% | 139298 | 0.009563% |
| 18 | 427 | 8 | 1.9% | 138348 | 0.010718% |
| 19 | 402 | 18 | 4.5% | 145122 | 0.011938% |
| 20 | 383 | 15 | 3.9% | 153200 | 0.013224% |
| 21 | 380 | 14 | 3.7% | 167580 | 0.014576% |
| 22 | 374 | 16 | 4.3% | 181016 | 0.015994% |
| 23 | 370 | 10 | 2.7% | 195730 | 0.017478% |
| 24 | 465 | 19 | 4.1% | 267840 | 0.019028% |
| 25 | 490 | 23 | 4.7% | 306250 | 0.020644% |
| Totals: | 33274 | 3032397 | |||
| True Random Odds: | 0.003005% |
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing
.Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
sacountry
Well-known member
Low goats......marvelous or myth?
