Montana Mule Deer Mismanagement

[Forkyfinder]

The longer I have seen proactive management, the less I like it.

Do you have any thoughts on this specific statment from the link?

"The most striking example of this boom-
bust effect came in the early 1970s. Mule
deer numbers inRegion 7 were skyrocketing
because FWP had restricted antlerless har-
vest, even during years of abundant browse.
In 1973, hunters harvested a record 19,335
mule deer bucks. During the nextfew years,
FWP finally increased antlerless harvest, but
by then the population was already dropping
naturally, as mule deer found little left on
the landscape to browse. Coming too late,
the increased antlerless harvest accelerated
the population decline. By 1976, the buck
harvest had plummeted to just 3,498, a
decrease of 82 percent. “That’s a prime
example of reactive harvest management,”
says Waltee. “In hindsight, we now see that
the increased antlerless deer harvest came
two years too late to prevent severe habitat
stress and an extreme population decline.”

 

[antlerradar]

Do you have any thoughts on this specific statment from the link?

"The most striking example of this boom-
bust effect came in the early 1970s. Mule
deer numbers inRegion 7 were skyrocketing
because FWP had restricted antlerless har-
vest, even during years of abundant browse.
In 1973, hunters harvested a record 19,335
mule deer bucks. During the nextfew years,
FWP finally increased antlerless harvest, but
by then the population was already dropping
naturally, as mule deer found little left on
the landscape to browse. Coming too late,
the increased antlerless harvest accelerated
the population decline. By 1976, the buck
harvest had plummeted to just 3,498, a
decrease of 82 percent. “That’s a prime
example of reactive harvest management,”
says Waltee. “In hindsight, we now see that
the increased antlerless deer harvest came
two years too late to prevent severe habitat
stress and an extreme population decline.”

I can understand why people would not like the big swings in population, But I would take that any day everyday over what the graph is showing since the time proactive management was implemented. You would have to have very rose tinted glasses not to see the the over all trend during proactive management has been a declining harvest. I am also fairly confident that the downward trajectory has not been broken in the last 10 years not shown on the graph. We wouldn't have a 148 pages of mule deer mismanagement if it was.

 

[Forkyfinder]

I can understand why people would not like the big swings in population, But I would take that any day everyday over what the graph is showing since the time proactive management was implemented. You would have to have very rose tinted glasses not to see the the over all trend during proactive management has been a declining harvest. I am also fairly confident that the downward trajectory has not been broken in the last 10 years not shown on the graph. We wouldn't have a 148 pages of mule deer mismanagement if it was.

In the last 10 years - all of the worst years had way more bucks harvested than 76, 77, 78, and 79.

 

[Eric Albus]

I can understand why people would not like the big swings in population, But I would take that any day everyday over what the graph is showing since the time proactive management was implemented. You would have to have very rose tinted glasses not to see the the over all trend during proactive management has been a declining harvest. I am also fairly confident that the downward trajectory has not been broken in the last 10 years not shown on the graph. We wouldn't have a 148 pages of mule deer mismanagement if it was.

We still live in a reactive management era.
AHM(adaptive harvest management) is the model used by FWP today, and it’s a bastardized model used by DU for duck harvest, count eggs, figure X number of boy ducks, natural mortality etc, set limit numbers accordingly.
Kinda works for deer, but not very well, as we have no metric to slow harvest of “boy deer”, as we have unlimited license sold OTC.
If we had mandatory reporting it would be a big help. We all know the phone survey is not reliable or even believable, as most people I’ve spoken to tell me they don’t answer or outright lie.

 

[Eric Albus]

Only a few days to go to the primary. I’m so ready for this to be over.
I’ve never been lied about so much in my life. I find it rather disturbing, distasteful and disgusting.
Hitler once said, “tell a big enough lie often enough, and people will believe it”.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Only a few days to go to the primary. I’m so ready for this to be over.
I’ve never been lied about so much in my life. I find it rather disturbing, distasteful and disgusting.
Hitler once said, “tell a big enough lie often enough, and people will believe it”.

Good luck Eric.

Rooting for you.

 

[antlerradar]

In the last 10 years - all of the worst years had way more bucks harvested than 76, 77, 78, and 79.

Do you have the chart extended out to 2025?

 

[SAJ-99]

as most people I’ve spoken to tell me they don’t answer or outright lie.

They are going to lie regardless of method of collection.

 

[R.K.]

They are going to lie regardless of method of collection.

That’s just a defeatist attitude. Can’t let the challenges stop you from even trying to make improvements.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Do you have the chart extended out to 2025?

i tried having ai make it for you (blending new data into an old graph), doesnt seme to work - but heres the last 20 years plotted from the data at fwp.

 

[antlerradar]

Another thing that needs to be taken into account is that the explosion in commercialization on private land also started just about the same time as adaptive management was started. This was a sea change and could be influencing the data on the chart more than adaptive management. For example FWP states that adaptive management has been good for landowners, and base this on they have received fewer game damage complaints. I am confident that when landowners are getting payed big money for deer, they are going to complain less than when they were not getting paid. The commercialization of private has likely also had a fairly large impact on buck harvest also. I would like to see what the graph for public land harvest looks like, but don't think we have that data.

 

[antlerradar]

i tried having ai make it for you (blending new data into an old graph), doesnt seme to work - but heres the last 20 years plotted from the data at fwp.

View attachment 409321

Like I figured, That downward trajectory of buck harvest has continued.

 

[SAJ-99]

That’s just a defeatist attitude. Can’t let the challenges stop you from even trying to make improvements.

I didn’t say it should. It’s just a fact and something that has to be adjusted for in the statistical model. Although someone needs to ask Albus how he meets so many liars, .

We know people lie. As long as they lie consistently we can adjust. Going away from the phone calls doesn’t fix the lying, but it does improve quality of responses because people don’t have to remember back 6 months to how many days they hunted. It would be an improvement, just not the enlightening change everyone would hope it is.

 

[WanderWoman]

I can understand why people would not like the big swings in population, But I would take that any day everyday over what the graph is showing since the time proactive management was implemented. You would have to have very rose tinted glasses not to see the the over all trend during proactive management has been a declining harvest. I am also fairly confident that the downward trajectory has not been broken in the last 10 years not shown on the graph. We wouldn't have a 148 pages of mule deer mismanagement if it was.

FWP largely controls one thing when it comes to mule deer: season. Not habitat, not weather, not even hunter success (that’s dependent on access, the hunter, changing technology, weather... Mule deer are declining in more places than MT overall which speaks to a larger issue than just OTC buck tags and some years of lots of B licenses. So the waning peaks and lower valleys will just continue to go that way even if you snipped pretty much all deer harvest. And that’s before the long-term effects of not managing for CWD enter the building.

I’d never want to see big swings. The machine of harvest management with the current biennial season-setting structure (in which for example the 2026-27 seasons were set in 2025), make it difficult to even be reactive to big swings up and down. By the time you implement a more restrictive season, you’re already increasing again, and by the time you implement measures to reduce a population, it’s going down again. No thanks.

We still live in a reactive management era.
AHM(adaptive harvest management) is the model used by FWP today, and it’s a bastardized model used by DU for duck harvest, count eggs, figure X number of boy ducks, natural mortality etc, set limit numbers accordingly.
Kinda works for deer, but not very well, as we have no metric to slow harvest of “boy deer”, as we have unlimited license sold OTC.
If we had mandatory reporting it would be a big help. We all know the phone survey is not reliable or even believable, as most people I’ve spoken to tell me they don’t answer or outright lie.

Comparing AHM to (USFWS, not DU) waterfowl management is like comparing apples to Nintendos. On one hand you have cross-continental and international management of a critter spanning thousands of miles, and on the other, you have deer herds within a unit within another ‘population management unit’ within a state with completely different biology and population metrics (litter size, renesting capabilities, breeding habitat in an entirely different state or continent than wintering/harvest habitat, etc).

Also I’m curious how FWP switching from current harvest stats to mandatory reporting would be a ‘fix-all.’ That’s just changing a data-gathering method once the animal is already dead. Also, given other states report compliance issues, not sure why the majority of hunters who abstain from answering a survey they’re “asked” to do would suddenly answer one they’re “told” to do by the gub’ment. Furthermore, if someone’s already being an arse and lying on their harvest survey, why would someone prone to be like that suddenly grow angel wings and be truthful when they’re told they have to, again by a government agency they apparently already don’t like?

Lots of ways to improve harvest estimates but only speaking to estimates in general vs the idea of ‘mandatory’ here.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Like I figured, That downward trajectory of buck harvest has continued.

Its objectively not a downtrend.

Looks like very high highs and low lows - and now stabilization of harvest between 7-11k - which is higher than the lows of the 60s and 70s substantially.

Really not all bad considering predators, cheat grass, and every other unaccounted for ecological concern.

 

[Forkyfinder]

If we had mandatory reporting it would be a big help. We all know the phone survey is not reliable or even believable, as most people I’ve spoken to tell me they don’t answer or outright lie.

I am not convinced mandatory reporting solves all our problems - but it might restore confidence in the agency and data....

Raise all lic fees 10 dollars. Get a 10 dollar discount for filling out your "non" mandatory harvest report.

 

[antlerradar]

We know people lie. As long as they lie consistently we can adjust. Going away from the phone calls doesn’t fix the lying, but it does improve quality of responses because people don’t have to remember back 6 months to how many days they hunted. It would be an improvement, just not the enlightening change everyone would hope it is.

I got the call just yesterday, I have no clue how many days I hunted last fall.

 

[MTTW]

As for lying on the harvest survey, by the time I get the call I can't remember what the truth even is and have no time to look at my notes if I still have any. It would be nice if the people who are trying to tell the truth actually could.

 

[WanderWoman]

I got the call just yesterday, I have no clue how many days I hunted last fall.

Deer stats are already all done; they’re doing the elk calls now due to shoulder season. Still a long time ago. I got mine last week.

 

[SAJ-99]

I got the call just yesterday, I have no clue how many days I hunted last fall.

Did you choose e-tag? My understanding is that hunters can voluntarily report harvest on the app and e-tag is essentially harvest data. Someone can confirm, because it has only been around a few years and I have never used it.