Montana Mule Deer Mismanagement

People don’t seem to like the winter survey, but it’s a well established method that nearly every state uses. Flights in winter, with snow cover and the least tree/shrub foliage gives you the best conditions for visibility and counting. You could do counts at other times, but you are going to have much less confidence in your counts and more difficulty in classifying. Plus you piss off a lot fewer people than trying to do them in the fall.
Everything you have said about the winter survey is true. My biggest frustration with the way FWP is counting deer is that they are failing to adjust to the changing conditions on the ground. The ratio of deer on public vs private is one of those changes and there are others.
A few years back I commented that I was seeing fewer and fewer deer on the Custer. The bio replied that the winter survey in the trend aria was showing nearly identical counts as those in the 90's. I ask if they were adjusting for the Stag Rock fire. No need was the answer, the fire did not effect the survey. I find that hard to believe. The entire trend aria went form one of the thickest stand Ponderosa Pine in SE Montana to black sticks over night. I have never done a aerial survey so maybe I am all wet, but with that kind of a change you are going to count a much bigger percentage of the animals in the trend aria.
 
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Everything you have said about the winter survey is true. My biggest frustration with the way FWP is counting deer is that they are failing to adjust to the changing conditions on the ground. The ratio of deer on public vs private is one of those changes and there are others.
A few years back I commented that I was seeing fewer and fewer deer on the Custer. The bio replied that the winter survey in the trend aria was showing nearly identical counts as those in the 90's. I ask if they were adjusting for the Stag Rock fire. No need was the answer, the fire did not effect the survey. I find that hard to believe. The entire trend aria went form one of the thickest stand Ponderosa Pine in SE Montana to black sticks over night. I have never done a aerial survey so maybe I am all wet, but with that kind of a change you are going to count a much bigger percentage of the animals in the trend aria.
I’m completely unfamiliar with the area so can’t intelligently speak about your example.

You are 100% correct that the count survey tells you nothing about distribution.
I have also thought for quite a while that there seems to be an over reliance on the winter count data. It only paints part of the picture and does not capture changes in landscape use across the season. It’s capturing deer numbers on winter range only, basically. Distribution throughout the year seems to be an issue, and figuring that out would require a separate effort entirely. You would basically want to replicate that elk collaring work they did a few years ago if you really want to see where deer go, and when.

But a) that would be spendy and b) FWP is still under a no new big studies order because, well, science is the devil, so I don’t see that happening.
 
People say oh more NR than ever at the trail heads well they are wrong . I know 59k or so tags were sold to NR last year but more than 30knof those were b tags . Most likely to combination license holders …. The problem is residents , being able to buy a mule deer tag good state wide otc . FWP needs to manage resident tags .
 
NR tags are capped for combination tags . B tags are not I get that but combination tag numbers have been the same for years
Combination licenses were capped in 1975. You dont suppose things have changed a bit since then?
There are all kinds of other scams beyond what you listed. The actual license numbers are much higher than you think.
This article touches on the license creep going on.
 
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People say oh more NR than ever at the trail heads well they are wrong . I know 59k or so tags were sold to NR last year but more than 30knof those were b tags . Most likely to combination license holders …. The problem is residents , being able to buy a mule deer tag good state wide otc . FWP needs to manage resident tags .
You can manage resident tags while also cutting NR opportunities as well. These to things should go hand in hand.
 
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Combination licenses were capped in 1975. You dont suppose things have changed a bit since then?
There are all kinds of other scams beyond what you listed. The actual license numbers are much higher than you think.
This article touches on the license creep going on.
Spin it all you like resident hunters and the increase in new resident hunters in the past 30 years is the problem. If you had seen the past you would understand.
 
Spin it all you like resident hunters and the increase in new resident hunters in the past 30 years is the problem. If you had seen the past you would understand.
Don’t discount everyone hunting in the same area because of game numbers that tanked in the west. We are piling everyone on top of one another and then add on decreased private land access. Spin it how you want but some of us have seen a huge increase in nonresident hunters.
 
Don’t discount everyone hunting in the same area because of game numbers that tanked in the west. We are piling everyone on top of one another and then add on decreased private land access. Spin it how you want but some of us have seen a huge increase in nonresident hunters.
You have a point. When I was younger you didn't see may Washington and Oregon plates in Eastern Montana. My bet is for the most part they didn't drive the extra 400 miles when the hunting was better in the western part of the state.
 
You have a point. When I was younger you didn't see may Washington and Oregon plates in Eastern Montana. My bet is for the most part they didn't drive the extra 400 miles when the hunting was better in the western part of the state.
I don't believe it has much to with better hunting in the west.

People forget that speed limits were 55-65, roads sucked, and herding a 1975 power wagon, f150, etc. down the road wasn't fun either.

Plus nobody really knew much about the breaks or SE Montana.

Now it's smooth running trucks that you can drive 80-85 mph down great highways in luxury. Combine that with the information age, there's your answer.
 
Another issue that I’ve witnessed a lot in areas where numbers are actually pretty good, and I’m not sure how to correct it, is the disproportionate amount of deer(mainly mule deer) taken off public/bma’s. For instance, there are some areas where only maybe 5-10% of a unit in eastern MT is easily accessible hunting ground, but the the vast majority of non res, residents from elsewhere, and lots of local residents are all beating up on the same chunks of state/bma while very low numbers of deer are taken off the rest of it. Again, not sure the best route to fix this if there is a way, but it is becoming more of an issue.
 
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I think there is a lot of truth to it both @BuzzH and @antlerradar are saying. However, at the end of the day, the biggest crux here is a lack of a regulatory mechanism to distribute hunters other than lace up your boots, and go deeper.
The season dates and a statewide tag are low hanging fruit. Unreal it hasn’t been changed yet and likely never will in my lifetime.
 
Don’t discount everyone hunting in the same area because of game numbers that tanked in the west. We are piling everyone on top of one another and then add on decreased private land access. Spin it how you want but some of us have seen a huge increase in nonresident hunters.
This is very true in many areas.
 
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