I’d be curious how many applicants who only submitted a first choice app drew vs. those who submitted a second choice too.
There’s really no reason to submit a second choice in the new system but it still allowed you to.
Knowing this would validate or invalidate the rumor that the glitch was:
Those who applied with a second choice app in addition to the first were kicked out of the draw due to a system error. If this happened it would increase the odds for those who applied for first choice only. Cut out a significant portion of the apps and the tags suddenly become easier to draw.