Caribou Gear

Lumber & Paint prices - Out of Control?

Lumber futures prices are getting close to pre-pandemic levels. Contract from Feb 2020 was about $420. As of yesterday July closed at $520. Curve has flatten considerably with the next 6 months contracts between 600 and 630. I hope the prices at the yard have come down, but I know shortages are going to persist.
 
Lumber futures prices are getting close to pre-pandemic levels. Contract from Feb 2020 was about $420. As of yesterday July closed at $520. Curve has flatten considerably with the next 6 months contracts between 600 and 630. I hope the prices at the yard have come down, but I know shortages are going to persist.
I wonder how long it will take for us to see that correction in the store.
 
Home Depot lumber prices were 10-20% lower than the last time I went in a month ago. So hopefully the lower prices are bleeding through across the sales channel.

I read yesterday that the lower prices are just a head fake, crossing my fingers they're wrong...
 
I’m hearing the mills are locking up again and utilization is declining. This time because of the fear of declining demand. Lumber prices and derivative products have tumbled over the last month. Does this mean the market is getting better and inflation is slowing or are we looking at the canary in the US economy coal mine?
 
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