If you're only applying for hunts with less than 1% chance to draw, then no, NM is not worth it. For deer, if you're willing to branch out and try areas that aren't the traditional "trophy" units, you can increase your odds significantly. Same with trying different weapon types. I've seen some really nice bucks in units that aren't designated as "quality" units. I guess it ultimately depends on what your personal standard is for a "big buck".
As for antelope, your odds kind of stink no matter what you do. However, this is going to be an interesting year with the antelope hunt changes. Having the tags spread out over more hunts means that the applicant pool will be spread out. With a little luck, you might be able to score on a choice that the bulk of the crowd decided to avoid.
At the end of the day, if the nonrefundable license doesn't bother you, why not play the lottery? Somebody has to win it, might as well be you.