ID nonres sheep/Moose/Goat apps?

[BackofBeyond]

I’m sitting out my favorite goat draw this year. I’ll go in on another elk tag and hope the goat population in my unit rebounds before my knees are totally gone.

 

[BAKPAKR]

That's not really how it works statistically. The odds weren't 8%. They just seem that way, but a NR had way less than 8% chance of pulling that tag.

All the numbers are basically in one big hat. They start pulling. When 10% is met for NR, they are supposed to stop counting those. Except last year they never stopped and informed an extra dozen NRs they had a sheep tag....oops.

This is why our unit 11 tag almost always goes to a NR....so many NRs put in it often one gets picked before a resident.

Residents are in luck this year - two tags in 11.

 

[TheTone]

Residents are in luck this year - two tags in 11.

Hopefully the nasty hippies hiking around on the Oregon side with their pack goats, camels, and sheep don’t ruin this asap

In for moose again. Lost track of the number of times I’ve been told no

 

[BAKPAKR]

Hopefully the nasty hippies hiking around on the Oregon side with their pack goats, camels, and sheep don’t ruin this asap

In for moose again. Lost track of the number of times I’ve been told no

Camels? I know there was a zebra at a ranchette downriver from Heller Bar several years ago.

 

[Desk Pop]

Residents are in luck this year - two tags in 11.

For sure. At least one will get a tag. And hopefully it pulls more apps over to 11.

I think everyone should put in for 11.

 

[Huntin' Fool]

Sheep here this year.

Not 11.

My theory over the years is to apply for the hunts with better draw odds.

Sing it - Anticipation...

 

[Desk Pop]

Sheep here this year.

Not 11.

My theory over the years is to apply for the hunts with better draw odds.

Sing it - Anticipation...

Hopefully every resident other than you and I put in for unit 11...

 

[BAKPAKR]

Hopefully every resident other than you and I put in for unit 11...

I hope so, too. I would like a chance to apply for a sheep in the second drawing.

 

[Desk Pop]

I hope so, too. I would like a chance to apply for a sheep in the second drawing.

Could you imagine? Hahaha

 

[BAKPAKR]

Could you imagine? Hahaha

I am applying for elk this year so that would be my only chance to apply for California bighorn…

 

[okie archer]

In for moose....again.

 

[Lilhowie83]

I'm in for sheep and my 3 oldest kids are in for moose.

 

[Lilhowie83]

Moose in a unit familiar to a few HTers.

I'm sure it's the same unit that my 3 kids are in for. We'll try not to steal your tag.

 

[Lilhowie83]

Retraction of prev statement. in for sheep.

If you draw a sheep tag, after drawing moose last year, on top of the elk tag you were able to get, you will need to buy a powerball ticket.

 

[CMF]

Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them. Reading the comments at gohunt, it looks like they may have a better idea of the odds. They also seem likely to be more accurate since they vary by hunt codes. Since it's capped at a hunt code level and combined total level, hunting codes with fewer apps should have better odds(since a hunt code is done once a single nr tag is pulled from that pool)
I was planning on putting in, but think I'll hold off now. The kids drew a few tags in NM, including F/IM Barbary, so at least we'll be hunting sheep this season.

 

[232401a]

Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them. Reading the comments at gohunt, it looks like they may have a better idea of the odds. They also seem likely to be more accurate since they vary by hunt codes. Since it's capped at a hunt code level and combined total level, hunting codes with fewer apps should have better odds(since a hunt code is done once a single nr tag is pulled from that pool)
I was planning on putting in, but think I'll hold off now. The kids drew a few tags in NM, including F/IM Barbary, so at least we'll be hunting sheep this season.

NR Ram? If GoHunt is showing a 2.5% NR Ram unit in Idaho, you should ask for your money back for your insider subscription.

 

[BackofBeyond]

Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them. Reading the comments at gohunt, it looks like they may have a better idea of the odds. They also seem likely to be more accurate since they vary by hunt codes. Since it's capped at a hunt code level and combined total level, hunting codes with fewer apps should have better odds(since a hunt code is done once a single nr tag is pulled from that pool)
I was planning on putting in, but think I'll hold off now. The kids drew a few tags in NM, including F/IM Barbary, so at least we'll be hunting sheep this season.

GoHunt just regurgitates the draw offs from IDF&G, and there’s been plenty of discussion about how there’s not a good way to mathematically model the ID NR system.

 

[utah400elk]

I am in for Moose. Expensive for the application but… after 20 years applying for moose in Utah and 10 in Colorado…my ID odds first year are better. Good luck everybody!

 

[232401a]

Which odds do you guys believe are more correct, hunting fool or gohunt? Gohunt has a unit around 2.5% hunting fool around 0.5-0.6% for almost all of them.

You are correct. I just reviewed all NR Idaho ram odds in GoHunt and Toprut, side by side. Gohunt is consistently showing 2-3x better NR ram odds than Toprut. Several units showing as high as 1.4%, 1.7%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 2.8% at GoHunt. But all NR ram hunt codes are 0.2-0.7% at Toprut.

The guy that heads GoHunt data & analytics only has a 2 year business degree from a community college (not joking). But his resume does say he focused on math/stats while obtaining that associates degree.

The Toprut guy also lacks a formal statistics education, but I'm inclined to believe that Toprut has more of the Idaho NR nuances modeled out correctly. I believe GoHunt is only handling this mildly better than the 3rd grade statistician putting together the charts at Idaho F&G showing 8%+ draw odds for many units.

Another possibility is that Idaho F&G (learning from AZ GFD) has a promotional contract with GoHunt. GoHunt NR ram draw odds of up to 2.8% are going to lead to many more $330 transactions than truth would dictate.

I have not reviewed GoHunt odds for NR moose and NR mt goat, but my guess is that you should divide all of those by 2-3 also.

 

[SagebrushSlayer]

In for Sheep, maybe break a decade long streak.

one daughter wanted to try a moose app… she is pretty lucky