Help decipring WY draw odds

[tbowers]

I don’t know exactly what algorithm they use to say whether it’s difficult access or not. I think it’s based on percentage of public roads that intersect with public land. The unit I’ve hunted two years in a row is listed as difficult access, and last year we shot 4 of our 5 within a half mile of a public road. And two literally a hundred or so feet from a county road. So difficult access does not mean no access or even necessarily difficult. You just may have to walk more (but you also may not) ..

Good points. I’m thinking I need to not put as much stake in the access and look more at what is likely to draw with one point. Even the difficult access zones show non resident success is 80%+ for the most part. I have no issue walking a few miles either and packing one out- as long as I can get access to spots via foot- I think you are right that road access is largely what dictates access- like can you drive thru the property vs park and hike in

 

[bts09]

There are a bunch of threads on this concept. There are not that many units you will have a 100% shot at with one point (and you can never know for sure--as others have pointed out, point creep is real, but it does not always work the same in each unit--some got easier to draw last year, etc). So it's not too hard to just pull the data from last year, figure out which units were 100% with one preference point, and then look at all of them and decide on one. You can also look at all the units that were 100% in the "special" license draw and see if you like some of them $300 more than the ones you can draw on the regular license.

And for what it's worth, I think the real success rate for someone who is willing to spend a few days in the unit and burn some boot leather is much higher than 80%.

(one additional benefit of the "special" license is there will be second chance unit possibilities--as in, people will strike out on their first choice but draw their second choice--that pretty much does not happen with the regular license now, because there are more people applying as first choice for each unit than there are tags available--so if you go with the special, and don't get your first choice, you could list a second choice that was undersubscribed last year in hopes of hunting something)

 

[tbowers]

There are a bunch of threads on this concept. There are not that many units you will have a 100% shot at with one point (and you can never know for sure--as others have pointed out, point creep is real, but it does not always work the same in each unit--some got easier to draw last year, etc). So it's not too hard to just pull the data from last year, figure out which units were 100% with one preference point, and then look at all of them and decide on one. You can also look at all the units that were 100% in the "special" license draw and see if you like some of them $300 more than the ones you can draw on the regular license.

And for what it's worth, I think the real success rate for someone who is willing to spend a few days in the unit and burn some boot leather is much higher than 80%.

(one additional benefit of the "special" license is there will be second chance unit possibilities--as in, people will strike out on their first choice but draw their second choice--that pretty much does not happen with the regular license now, because there are more people applying as first choice for each unit than there are tags available--so if you go with the special, and don't get your first choice, you could list a second choice that was undersubscribed last year in hopes of hunting something)

I'm not willing to spend the extra bucks for the special draw at this point, worst case if we dont draw the buck tag we'll hunt does, assuming we get drawn for that.

I've been looking at Top Rut as well, there are a decent amount of units that were 100% with 1 point but that is 2018 data so I'm cross referencing with the WY 2019 data to try and zero in on a decent unit

 

[wytex]

I don’t know exactly what algorithm they use to say whether it’s difficult access or not. I think it’s based on percentage of public roads that intersect with public land. The unit I’ve hunted two years in a row is listed as difficult access, and last year we shot 4 of our 5 within a half mile of a public road. And two literally a hundred or so feet from a county road. So difficult access does not mean no access or even necessarily difficult. You just may have to walk more (but you also may not) ..

Interesting point and question. I put in an email to our access yes guy to see what he says about how they make that distinction.

 

[bts09]

I'm not willing to spend the extra bucks for the special draw at this point, worst case if we dont draw the buck tag we'll hunt does, assuming we get drawn for that.

There are still PLENTY of units where you can get a doe tag or two, no problem.

 

[Pucky Freak]

With 0 points regular you could draw what you put in for this year if fewer people put in for that tag and the PP dips into the 0-pt applicant pool (unlikely), or the random draw. Even with point creep, you probably have a good chance of drawing one of these units next year with 1PP if the total tag quotas are not changed. Maybe 70-80% chance?

One thing I run into is each PP I get I’m tempted to look at what I “might” be able to draw and try to reach into that next pool, rather than just play it safer and cash in where I was willing and happy to draw the year before with 1 less point.

Looking back on 3 years of draw data can also be helpful since there are wild swings in the # of applicants for some units, especially for Type 6 tags. I guess what happens is a ton of people put in for tags one year, and the draw success is maybe 50% one year, then people see that datum, apply elsewhere the next year, and then the unit is undersubscribed. Then everyone puts in for it again thinking it’s a sure deal, and so on.

This year I wrote down all the units that drew NR Regular Type 1 applicants with 0-1 points (there are a lot), and scanned through OnX to see which ones allowed an acceptable (to me) amount of public I can tromp around on. These are all *limited public access units. Units range from 1-2 day’s worth of walking up to 1/2 mile from the road before all the accessible public in the unit is covered (not worth $350 for me) to 2 weeks worth of hiking. My goal is any 2+ year old buck, and a week to do it, which seems entirely doable. Will report back if I get a tag once I see if my theory matches reality.

There looks to be a whole lot of boot leather than could be worn out in 38 if you have the ambition, and a decent amount in 37. Good luck on your hunt if you draw this year

 

[tbowers]

With 0 points regular you could draw what you put in for this year if fewer people put in for that tag and the PP dips into the 0-pt applicant pool (unlikely), or the random draw. Even with point creep, you probably have a good chance of drawing one of these units next year with 1PP if the total tag quotas are not changed. Maybe 70-80% chance?

One thing I run into is each PP I get I’m tempted to look at what I “might” be able to draw and try to reach into that next pool, rather than just play it safer and cash in where I was willing and happy to draw the year before with 1 less point.

Looking back on 3 years of draw data can also be helpful since there are wild swings in the # of applicants for some units, especially for Type 6 tags. I guess what happens is a ton of people put in for tags one year, and the draw success is maybe 50% one year, then people see that datum, apply elsewhere the next year, and then the unit is undersubscribed. Then everyone puts in for it again thinking it’s a sure deal, and so on.

This year I wrote down all the units that drew NR Regular Type 1 applicants with 0-1 points (there are a lot), and scanned through OnX to see which ones allowed an acceptable (to me) amount of public I can tromp around on. These are all *limited public access units. Units range from 1-2 day’s worth of walking up to 1/2 mile from the road before all the accessible public in the unit is covered (not worth $350 for me) to 2 weeks worth of hiking. My goal is any 2+ year old buck, and a week to do it, which seems entirely doable. Will report back if I get a tag once I see if my theory matches reality.

There looks to be a whole lot of boot leather than could be worn out in 38 if you have the ambition, and a decent amount in 37. Good luck on your hunt if you draw this year

Im working on assembling a Excel sheet, so far I've gone thru 32 diff units on the eastern half of the state- of those 18 had 100% draw success w/ 1 pt in 2019. Every single one of those are listed as having 'poor' access however and the fish and game further deters you with the note 'public lands have very few antelope present' . Like you say better option would be to pull data on the last few years but holy smokes I dont have that kind of time. Wish you could export their data to Excel and throw into a pivot table.

In the 'poor' access units I'm having a heck of a time determining what exactly you can access via OnX- as others have said OnX is not great at identifying roads and they dont list if they are public vs private roads so that makes this tricky.

 

[Pucky Freak]

Every single one of those are listed as having 'poor' access however and the fish and game further deters you with the note 'public lands have very few antelope present' .

Deterred or determined. Yeah a lot of that limited public is close to roads and likely gets hammered. Also, the public they are referring to might be timbered, steeply intersected with ravines like river bluffs, or too high of elevation to support many antelope. However...I do find spots on the map where a public road intersects public land where if you are willing to walk through some less-than-perfect habitat for 2+ miles it opens into great looking antelope habitat eventually. I’m basing this off of my previous experience living in antelope country and familiar with where they are and where they ain’t on the landscape.

In the 'poor' access units I'm having a heck of a time determining what exactly you can access via OnX- as others have said OnX is not great at identifying roads and they dont list if they are public vs private roads so that makes this tricky.

If it’s a highway with #s assume it’s accessible. Also, the notes on the unit pages on the WG&F website under “public access” often list by name smaller roads that are publicly accessible, and sometimes which portions of those roads. Beyond that, I assume all the smaller roads are private or gated, and would only consider access to public along them by checking the county maintenance road map first.

 

[tbowers]

Appreciate everyones input. Researching where to go and finding access points will give me something to do for the next 16 months!

 

[jnd1959]

Consider the walk in areas as well. These can be a big benefit if there in good goat habitat. We've also had success going later in the season and paying a trespass fee. Goats are the Wyoming equivalent of dove hunting, in my view. Everybody's out there for opening day. When we've gone later we were usually the only ones in a unit.

 

[bts09]

"Goats are the Wyoming equivalent of dove hunting"--that's great, JND1959! Never heard that before but I love it. It's totally true. By mid-season, it does not take much walking to be all alone.

 

[tbowers]

Ya sounds like its no different then deer opener for rifle here in WI- opening day is an absolute zoo and if you go out 2 days later there is essentially no one out there. When i hunt WY I wouldnt go until a week or more into the season to avoid the crowds.

 

[Blackcats06]

Good points. I’m thinking I need to not put as much stake in the access and look more at what is likely to draw with one point. Even the difficult access zones show non resident success is 80%+ for the most part. I have no issue walking a few miles either and packing one out- as long as I can get access to spots via foot- I think you are right that road access is largely what dictates access- like can you drive thru the property vs park and hike in

A reason the harvest percent can be high is because they are guided hunts on private land From the published info I can find they don’t break out the spit of non res and resident harvest percent.

 

[Blackcats06]

You can't use the demand reports to calculate accurate odds for doe hunts.

please explain why? If your talking about the possibility of odds being better than reported because people turn down doe tags cause they didn’t draw a buck tag then I’ll take that.

 

[arthurpete]

please explain why? If your talking about the possibility of odds being better than reported because people turn down doe tags cause they didn’t draw a buck tag then I’ll take that.

Why would that change the initial draw odds though? Doesnt any tag that gets turned back in go back into the leftover drawing?

fwiw i am completely new to all this

 

[BuzzH]

please explain why? If your talking about the possibility of odds being better than reported because people turn down doe tags cause they didn’t draw a buck tag then I’ll take that.

Because it only shows the total number of applicants and available tags.

Each person can draw up to 2 doe tags on their applications and each person can potentially submit 2 separate applications for doe tags if they choose.

Meaning, if a unit has say 100 doe tags and 60 people applied the assumption is that everyone should draw. Maybe not if the first 50 that were plucked all received 2 doe tags each, 10 people went without drawing.

 

[WapitiBob]

please explain why? If your talking about the possibility of odds being better than reported because people turn down doe tags cause they didn’t draw a buck tag then I’ll take that.

Hunters who checked the "withdrawal box" aren't shown in the demand reports as they were removed from the draw before it started.

 

[bts09]

Meaning, if a unit has say 100 doe tags and 60 people applied the assumption is that everyone should draw. Maybe not if the first 50 that were plucked all received 2 doe tags each, 10 people went without drawing.

So I suppose in theory if the unit has twice as many doe tags as applicants, you could be certain that at least in that year, everyone who applied got their doe tag(s). Still in my experience, the draw odds are a pretty good indicator. I think a lot of people will split their doe tags between units.

 

[BuzzH]

So I suppose in theory if the unit has twice as many doe tags as applicants, you could be certain that at least in that year, everyone who applied got their doe tag(s). Still in my experience, the draw odds are a pretty good indicator. I think a lot of people will split their doe tags between units.

Not in mine...just going from NR friends who have been coming here to hunt pronghor for the last 17-18 years in a row. There have been a couple times when they didn't draw their doe tags, even though there were less applicants than available tags in the unit they hunt.

I also don't believe that most applicants split their doe tag units, but that's just a guess.

 

[Carl 9.3x62]

I also don't believe that most applicants split their doe tag units, but that's just a guess.

I do. But I am not most people.