Go Hunt is a Tool. I use it. However, you can beat their “predictions” or “draw odds” if you use all the information available to you. The reason I say “draw odds” is because they are actually just the actual odds from the previous year and not an indication of the future which you need to figure out on your own. I believe, if you do your research, you can draw a tag twice as often as the draw sites would lead you to believe based on their “draw odds”. But, you have to dig. To test this, lets look at some Archery Tags and put some predictions down in writing related to Wyoming ’18 draw.
Unit 40-9. Draw Services suggest you can draw a tag with 6 Points in the Regular Draw, 100% odds. I expect significant “point creep” and believe it will take more than 7 points in ’18 to have 100% odds. This, in spite of more tags offered in the draw for non-res applicants. (Most will say that is just point creep, but point creep shouldn’t exceed 1 pt/year, should it)
Unit 40-9. Sites and Draw Services want you to believe you have a 4-6% chance of drawing a random tag in the Special Draw. I believe you will have significantly better odds of drawing than that, and not because of the price increase.
Unit 41-9. Sites and Draw Services want you to believe you have a 33% chance of drawing a random tag in the Special Draw. I expect a far less chance, maybe 15%.
Unit 45-9. Sites and Draw Services suggest 7.5%-8% Random Draw Odds in the Special Draw. I’m guessing closer to 2-3%. (This in spite of more non-res tags being offered in the ’18 draw)
Unit 35-9. Draw Services suggest 7 points gets a 67% chance of drawing in Special, I think you have better than 50% odds with 6 points in ’18. (I expect reverse point creep)
Unit 36-9. Draw Services suggest 3 points gets a 50% chance of drawing in Regular, I think you have 100% odds with 2 points in ’18. (I expect reverse point creep)
Unit 67-9. Draw Services suggest you have a 13% chance of drawing a tag with 0 points in the Special Draw. I believe you will have better that 50% odds.
I can’t predict the exact numbers or percentages, but getting the trend right more often than not can be the difference in drawing more tags over a lifetime and (maybe more importantly) let you know tags and units to stay away from in a state like Wy which offers Random Tags. Honestly, those are what I am after, that tag you draw because you stacked the odds in your favor and didn't have to wait 6-9 years. Use it for what it is and understand they can’t come out and tell you what they may really think or they’d influence too many people, you still have to do your homework and you may end up with only another point, but it will save you time.