Do Colorado weighted points make a difference?

[rmyoung1]

Any chance we put a lid on all the math and logic and just perpetuate the weighted-points-don’t-matter narrative? My chosen NR moose unit blew up this year with 3+0 applicants. Would like to keep them at 3+0.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Any chance we put a lid on all the math and logic and just perpetuate the weighted-points-don’t-matter narrative? My chosen NR moose unit blew up this year with 3+0 applicants. Would like to keep them at 3+0.

Deal

 

[BradA]

yep. With so many hunt codes that are, in a lot of cases, wildly different in both tags and applicants, you are spot on.

For Example/Exhibit:

See below

View attachment 185292

- Ram Tags only
- Only 1st choice apps at 3+0 and above
- 4001 1st choice apps fit that criteria (1993 applicants for Point only, including the lone 21-point NR)
- So - "Simple" odds overall were 22/4001 = 0.55% (not good)

Because the pool of tags is so small and individual hunt code applicant numbers varied from a low of 35 to a high of 417 (and each hunt code has 1 NR tag), I'd say the data is less solid at an individual point level than, for example, Resident Moose.

But in broader terms - the 'midpoint' of applicants in this model is about 3+4 (meaning ~ half the applicants applied with 0->4 points and about half applied with 5->20 points).

3+0 -> 3+4 = Drew 1 tag
3+5 -> 3+20 = Drew 21 tags

*Disclaimer = I am NOT a statistician nor what I'd consider a data modeling expert. I do hire a lot of the latter and try and keep up with their big brains. I am having a cocktail at a hotel, but it's not a Holiday Inn Express.

Thanks for doing that I appreciate it

 

[BradA]

For those that want to see how the draw works I wrote this up in 2005 for the RMBS.

https://www.coloradooutdoorsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/HowColoradoSheepGoatDrawWorks.pdf

https://www.coloradooutdoorsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/HowColoradoSheepGoatDrawWorks.pdf

Not sure who put it on this site without my permission but- Oh Well.

Most of this is still accurate and a good example of how the sheep moose and mt goat draw really works. I'm looking to update this article soon with this years new huge pool of 3 point applicants "coming of age" in the draw. This will be a topic of debate at the next CWC meetings.

My advice/suggestion would be to use the same numbers and keep the current point levels and weighted points system. The change I would make if I was on the CPW Commission or King of the CPW would be to square the weighted points and let that be the new divisor # that would a higher likelihood of a higher weighted point holder drawing a lower final draw number. For example at the 3 & 2 level the person's draw number would be divide by 4 (2 weighted point x 2) A the 3 & 20 level the person's draw number would be divide by 400 (20 weighted points x 20)

Sandbrew

Read this and still don’t get it 100 percent haha

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Someone want to clue me in on the *youth tags ? There is no youth preference for M/S/G. The apps and tags might be parsed out in the recap, but the applicants have zero preference over anyone else in the draw. Or is this just a dislike for youth preference in general?


Good write ups on the points and good discussions about analysis at the overall app level vs. hunt code level. That can and does make a huge difference.

An early or late cow elk, doe, etc season that allows a kid to hunt without the general masses and for a discounted rate is a great way to preserve our hunting heritage and gives parents a great tool to get out there with their kids.

A MSG tag for someone who can't drive themselves to the trailhead or legally have a gun in their hands solo is just giving a parent a second application in a extremely limited system.

I'm god for a day. You can't apply for MSG until your 18.

 

[marksjeep]

So the limited nature of the tags should result in a ageist approach to their distribution? Bunk.

Either you are old enough and responsible enough to hunt big game. Or you're not.

 

[Oak]

So the limited nature of the tags should result in a ageist approach to their distribution? Bunk.

Either you are old enough and responsible enough to hunt big game. Or you're not.

I agree with this. I've been asked often to push for youth sheep licenses and I have no interest in that. Ewe licenses are pretty easy for residents to draw in a lot of units if a youth wants to hunt a sheep. We have abundant deer, elk, and pronghorn opportunities for youth. We don't need set aside licenses for hunter recruitment purposes.