Did Colorado Break the Elk Bank This Year?

[mdeerjunkie]

Hunted SW Colorado for deer and elk this year. There is defiantly plenty of animals up there, but there was a lot of people. While we were Deer hunting, some guys driving 4 wheelers busted some deer that were coming off private by shooting at them, while they are still in the private. They then went and sat right in the middle of where we were glassing. It’s public land, but still really annoying. I’d rather hunt a unit with less animals, just so there was not that much pressure.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Hunted SW Colorado for deer and elk this year. There is defiantly plenty of animals up there, but there was a lot of people. While we were Deer hunting, some guys driving 4 wheelers busted some deer that were coming off private by shooting at them, while they are still in the private. They then went and sat right in the middle of where we were glassing. It’s public land, but still really annoying. I’d rather hunt a unit with less animals, just so there was not that much pressure.

Well if CO voters have any say in it you will probably have your chance.

 

[Muley_Stalker]

Nothing the DOW has done has affected my elk hunting in the last 5 decades. I still don't see any other hunters and get a tag every year. I go where the elk are, not the hunters. The majority of elk hunters don't know where the elk are. They hunt in areas that appeal to them instead of the elk. Keep hunting those OTC units boys. The DOW loves you.

No complaints from me about Colorado elk hunting. Same for muley's and bear.

 

[lr123]

I can't comment on CO tags as I've never hunted there before but I do feel that resident tags are cheap in many states. For example my resident IN deer combo tag which can be used for any season is $65 for one buck and two does while a NR deer tag is $300+.

 

[Elkhunter24]

I have hunted Colorado every year since 2010 with success of some sort every year. whether I killed a deer or elk sometimes both. Last year however I did not kill but wasn't because of not seeing animals. I will say since 2010 there has been a decrease in animals in the area. Hunting pressure I would say has dropped in the area because of fewer animals. But they are there just have to hunt harder and go in further. With saying that I hunted Wyoming this year for the first time on a general tag. It made me really never want to hunt Colorado again or not near as often. The amount of animals we saw was unreal with little hunting pressure. Colorado is great in ways because the state always allows you to have an opportunity to hunt elk every year. Where other states you can't or much harder to get a tag.

 

[Muley_Stalker]

Smart locals can control the hunting pressure in a unit. What makes a NR want to hunt a particular unit? The success rate. What sets the success rate? The surveys. Think about it.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Smart locals can control the hunting pressure in a unit. What makes a NR want to hunt a particular unit? The success rate. What sets the success rate? The surveys. Think about it.

 

[Muley_Stalker]

When you nothing to say. Show a movie clip.

What I said is true.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

When you nothing to say. Show a movie clip.

What I said is true.

When you say stupid shit that is so patently false that it's not worth a verbal retort.

 

[Muley_Stalker]

The naive always think they're right. Stop acting like you know everything.

 

[Jerky]

People who are wrong think they're right too.

Bragging about lying on a harvest survey. Congratulations?

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

The naive always think they're right. Stop acting like you know everything.

So there is a secret cabal of hunters in one or two DAUs that have figured out how to game the survey in order to make the unit level statistics significantly worse?

Colorado uses stratified random, this methodology has been shown to produce the most statistically accurate results. There are a number of peer reviewed studies on the topic and false reporting is a factor that these methodologies attempt to account for false reporting. The likelihood of any resident giving false information is probably uniform across the state. It is likely that all units are under reported by a similar degree. Furthermore, there is no reason to assume that non-residents report any more or less accurately than residents for specifically the same reason you stated.

The primary issue I have with COs method of surveys is that there are a few specific units / seasons with so few tags issued that no hunter is ever contacted.

I killed an elk in 371 with a muzzy in 2018, the harvest statistics say that for that unit + method of take the harvest rate was 0%. This is because no one for that unit and method was surveyed. The smaller the number of tags issued for any hunt the more inaccurate the data will be, the more tags issued the more accurate it will be. This, among other reasons is why there is mandatory reporting for some species.

I'm not rolling my eyes with the claim that the data is inaccurate, I'm rolling my eyes at the fact that you think you and your buddies are keeping your spot secret by lying to the state agency.

The idea is so unoriginal and pervasive that you can statistically account for it... if you have enough data points.

I don't know much, I do know that folks a heck of a lot smarter than you anticipated your move.





The work cited from the first paper that came up on the topic on the google...

AAPOR. 2003. “Interviewer Falsification in Survey Research: Current Best Methods for Prevention, Detection and Repair of Its Effects.”

Benford, Frank. 1938. “The Law of Anomalous Numbers.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society.

Bredl, Sebastian, Peter Winker and Kerstin Kötschau. 2012. “A statistical approach to detect cheating interviewer falsification of survey data.” Survey Methodology.

Bredl, Sebastian, Nina Storfinger and Natalja Menold. 2011. “A literature review of methods to detect fabricated survey data.” Discussion Papers from Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).

Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The nature of belief systems in mass publics.” In Joseph W. Elder, ed., “Ideology and Discontent.”

Crespi, Leo P. 1945. “The Cheater Problem in Polling.” Public Opinion Quarterly.

Diekmann, Andreas. 2002. “Diagnose von Fehlerquellen und methodische Qualität in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung.” Institut fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung (ITA).

Diakité, Souleymane. 2013. “Statistical methods for the detection of falsified data by interviewers and application survey data in Africa.” Sixth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics.

Groves, Robert M., Floyd J. Fowler Jr., Mick P. Couper, James M. Lepkowski, Eleanor Singer and Roger Tourangeau. 2009. “Survey Methodology.”

Hood, Catherine C. and John M. Bushery. 1997. “Getting More Bang from the Reinterview Buck: Identifying ‘At Risk’ Interviewers.” Proceedings of the American Statistical Association.

Judge, George and Laura Schechter. 2009. “Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law.” The Journal of Human Resources.

Koch, Achim. 1995. “Gefälschte Interviews: Ergebnisse der Interviewerkontrolle beim ALLBUS 1994.” ZUMA Nachrichten.

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Jan Skopek and Stephanie Eckman. 2015. “Do Interviewers Manipulate Responses to Filter Questions? Evidence from a Multilevel Approach.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research.

Kuriakose, Noble and Michael Robbins. 2015. “Falsification in Survey Research: Detecting Near Duplicate Observations.” American Political Science Association Annual Meetings 2015.

Li, Jianzhu, J. Michael Brick, Bac Tran and Phyllis Singer. 2009. “Using Statistical Models for Sample Design of a Reinterview Program.” Proceedings of the Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association.

Loosveldt, Geert. 2008. “Face-To-Face interviews.” In Edith D. deLeeuw, Joop Hox and Don Dillman, eds., “International Handbook of Survey Methodology.”

Lyberg, Lars and Paul Biemer. 2008. “Quality Assurance and Quality Control in Surveys.” In Edith D. deLeeuw, Joop Hox and Don Dillman, eds., “International Handbook of Survey Methodology.”

Lyberg, Lars and Diana Maria Stukel. 2010. “Quality Assurance and Quality Control in Cross-National Comparative Studies.” In Harkness, Janet A., et al., eds. “Survey Methods in Multinational, Multiregional, and Multicultural Contexts.”

Menold, Natalja and Christoph Kemper. 2014. “How Do Real and Falsified Data Differ? Psychology of Survey Response as a Source of Falsification Indicators in Face-to-Face Surveys.” Journal of International Public Opinion Research.

Reuband, Karl-Heinz. 1990. “Interviews, die keine sind – ‘Erfolge’ und ‘Mißerfolge’ beim Fälschen von Interviews.” Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie.

Schnell, Rainer. 1991. “Der Einfluß gefälschter Interviews auf Survey Ergebnisse.” Zeitschrift für Soziologie.

Schraepler, Joerg-Peter and Gert Wagner. 2005. “Characteristics and impact of faked interviews in surveys – An analysis of genuine fakes in the raw data of SOEP.” Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv.

Schreiner, Irwin, Karen Pennie, and Jennifer Newbrough. 1988. “Interviewer Falsification in Census Bureau Surveys.” Proceedings of the Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association.

Singer, Eleanor. 2008. “Ethical Issues in Surveys.” In Edith D. deLeeuw, Joop Hox and Don Dillman, eds., “International Handbook of Survey Methodology.”

Winker, Peter, Natalja Menold, Nina Storfinger, Sabrina Stukowski, Christoph J. Kemper, and Sabrina Stutkowski. 2013. “A Method for ex-post Identification of Falsifications in Survey Data.” NTTS 2013 – Conferences on New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics.

Zaller, John R. 1992. “The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.”

 

[Muley_Stalker]

People who are wrong think they're right too.

Bragging about lying on a harvest survey. Congratulations?

I never said a thing about lying. I also never said I was involved but I do know what's going on. Hanging around gunshops is very informative.

My point in all this is to not rely on just hunting statistics to decide where you'll hunt.

 

[TOGIE]

oh yah, hanging around gun shops will really give you the truth we're all looking for

i need to rethink my strategies

should probably go down to my local watering hole so that i can dig up the truth on bill clinton too

 

[LopeHunter]

I never said a thing about lying. I also never said I was involved but I do know what's going on. Hanging around gunshops is very informative.

My point in all this is to not rely on just hunting statistics to decide where you'll hunt.

I have not been in a gun shop in a decade. Are you sure your sampling is representative of survey participants and their actual responses if they happen to be contacted a few weeks or months later?

Turns out herd mentality in a coffee shop or gun shop does not necessarily mean much. Easy to think you have your finger on the pulse of things when do not. People will nod their head enthusiastically while slapping you on the back in the midst of peer pressure then they may surprise you how they act later when inside a voting booth.

Lies are not always effective as any 4 year old learns.

I drew a Mountain Goat tag in CO years ago. Harvest reporting is not only mandatory but has to be done in person. Hard to lie about if harvested yet one of the things they ask is the place on the map in the unit where you shot the billy or nanny. I presume some people lie and "move" the kill over a drainage or two but there are goats in most drainages so the lies tend to "outsmart" another lie so if you plot the reported kill sites on a map the information is still useful as head out to scout.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

My point in all this is to not rely on just hunting statistics to decide where you'll hunt.

I 100% agree.

 

[bklotthor]

As far as mandatory vs random harvest reporting, what is the main defense as to why some states still do not do mandatory reporting? Do the state agencies argue that its a cost issue? I hunted New Mexico this September, they have mandatory electronic reporting that must be done in order to apply the following year. It was a pretty painless process and took about 5 minutes to complete on the ride back home after a successful hunt, but I would assume even with this system there are still people who are dishonest.

As far as how states estimate animal populations, is this done yearly in most states via flights, biologists in the field doing counts, etc? Are historical harvest stats used for current animal population estimates? As an outsider not familiar with these issues there seems to be a lot that could be improved upon with very little cost increases.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

As far as mandatory vs random harvest reporting, what is the main defense as to why some states still do not do mandatory reporting? Do the state agencies argue that its a cost issue? I hunted New Mexico this September, they have mandatory electronic reporting that must be done in order to apply the following year. It was a pretty painless process and took about 5 minutes to complete on the ride back home after a successful hunt, but I would assume even with this system there are still people who are dishonest.

As far as how states estimate animal populations, is this done yearly in most states via flights, biologists in the field doing counts, etc? Are historical harvest stats used for current animal population estimates? As an outsider not familiar with these issues there seems to be a lot that could be improved upon with very little cost increases.

I've not heard a CO official comment on mandatory hunt reporting, ie you report whether you killed an elk or not, Alaska does this kind of report. They have comment on harvest reporting, i.e. if you kill an elk you report. The argument I heard was that it works for sheep, goats, and bears because you need a seal to get your animal mounted, but since there is no requirement of a seal for elk mounts there is no incentive for people to report. Further, it would be too onerous to provide seals for 40k elk every year.

The DAU managment plans provide a lot of the answers to your questions.

https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/DAU/Elk/E05_HM2018_FINAL.pdf

 

[noharleyyet]

So there is a secret cabal of hunters in one or two DAUs that have figured out how to game the survey in order to make the unit level statistics significantly worse?

Colorado uses stratified random, this methodology has been shown to produce the most statistically accurate results. There are a number of peer reviewed studies on the topic and false reporting is a factor that these methodologies attempt to account for false reporting. The likelihood of any resident giving false information is probably uniform across the state. It is likely that all units are under reported by a similar degree. Furthermore, there is no reason to assume that non-residents report any more or less accurately than residents for specifically the same reason you stated.

The primary issue I have with COs method of surveys is that there are a few specific units / seasons with so few tags issued that no hunter is ever contacted.

I killed an elk in 371 with a muzzy in 2018, the harvest statistics say that for that unit + method of take the harvest rate was 0%. This is because no one for that unit and method was surveyed. The smaller the number of tags issued for any hunt the more inaccurate the data will be, the more tags issued the more accurate it will be. This, among other reasons is why there is mandatory reporting for some species.

I'm not rolling my eyes with the claim that the data is inaccurate, I'm rolling my eyes at the fact that you think you and your buddies are keeping your spot secret by lying to the state agency.

The idea is so unoriginal and pervasive that you can statistically account for it... if you have enough data points.

I don't know much, I do know that folks a heck of a lot smarter than you anticipated your move.



View attachment 123094

The work cited from the first paper that came up on the topic on the google...

AAPOR. 2003. “Interviewer Falsification in Survey Research: Current Best Methods for Prevention, Detection and Repair of Its Effects.”

Benford, Frank. 1938. “The Law of Anomalous Numbers.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society.

Bredl, Sebastian, Peter Winker and Kerstin Kötschau. 2012. “A statistical approach to detect cheating interviewer falsification of survey data.” Survey Methodology.

Bredl, Sebastian, Nina Storfinger and Natalja Menold. 2011. “A literature review of methods to detect fabricated survey data.” Discussion Papers from Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).

Converse, Philip E. 1964. “The nature of belief systems in mass publics.” In Joseph W. Elder, ed., “Ideology and Discontent.”

Crespi, Leo P. 1945. “The Cheater Problem in Polling.” Public Opinion Quarterly.

Diekmann, Andreas. 2002. “Diagnose von Fehlerquellen und methodische Qualität in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung.” Institut fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung (ITA).

Diakité, Souleymane. 2013. “Statistical methods for the detection of falsified data by interviewers and application survey data in Africa.” Sixth International Conference on Agricultural Statistics.

Groves, Robert M., Floyd J. Fowler Jr., Mick P. Couper, James M. Lepkowski, Eleanor Singer and Roger Tourangeau. 2009. “Survey Methodology.”

Hood, Catherine C. and John M. Bushery. 1997. “Getting More Bang from the Reinterview Buck: Identifying ‘At Risk’ Interviewers.” Proceedings of the American Statistical Association.

Judge, George and Laura Schechter. 2009. “Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law.” The Journal of Human Resources.

Koch, Achim. 1995. “Gefälschte Interviews: Ergebnisse der Interviewerkontrolle beim ALLBUS 1994.” ZUMA Nachrichten.

Kosyakova, Yuliya, Jan Skopek and Stephanie Eckman. 2015. “Do Interviewers Manipulate Responses to Filter Questions? Evidence from a Multilevel Approach.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research.

Kuriakose, Noble and Michael Robbins. 2015. “Falsification in Survey Research: Detecting Near Duplicate Observations.” American Political Science Association Annual Meetings 2015.

Li, Jianzhu, J. Michael Brick, Bac Tran and Phyllis Singer. 2009. “Using Statistical Models for Sample Design of a Reinterview Program.” Proceedings of the Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association.

Loosveldt, Geert. 2008. “Face-To-Face interviews.” In Edith D. deLeeuw, Joop Hox and Don Dillman, eds., “International Handbook of Survey Methodology.”

Lyberg, Lars and Paul Biemer. 2008. “Quality Assurance and Quality Control in Surveys.” In Edith D. deLeeuw, Joop Hox and Don Dillman, eds., “International Handbook of Survey Methodology.”

Lyberg, Lars and Diana Maria Stukel. 2010. “Quality Assurance and Quality Control in Cross-National Comparative Studies.” In Harkness, Janet A., et al., eds. “Survey Methods in Multinational, Multiregional, and Multicultural Contexts.”

Menold, Natalja and Christoph Kemper. 2014. “How Do Real and Falsified Data Differ? Psychology of Survey Response as a Source of Falsification Indicators in Face-to-Face Surveys.” Journal of International Public Opinion Research.

Reuband, Karl-Heinz. 1990. “Interviews, die keine sind – ‘Erfolge’ und ‘Mißerfolge’ beim Fälschen von Interviews.” Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie.

Schnell, Rainer. 1991. “Der Einfluß gefälschter Interviews auf Survey Ergebnisse.” Zeitschrift für Soziologie.

Schraepler, Joerg-Peter and Gert Wagner. 2005. “Characteristics and impact of faked interviews in surveys – An analysis of genuine fakes in the raw data of SOEP.” Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv.

Schreiner, Irwin, Karen Pennie, and Jennifer Newbrough. 1988. “Interviewer Falsification in Census Bureau Surveys.” Proceedings of the Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association.

Singer, Eleanor. 2008. “Ethical Issues in Surveys.” In Edith D. deLeeuw, Joop Hox and Don Dillman, eds., “International Handbook of Survey Methodology.”

Winker, Peter, Natalja Menold, Nina Storfinger, Sabrina Stukowski, Christoph J. Kemper, and Sabrina Stutkowski. 2013. “A Method for ex-post Identification of Falsifications in Survey Data.” NTTS 2013 – Conferences on New Techniques and Technologies for Statistics.

Zaller, John R. 1992. “The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.”

Damn wiim, you could get a FISA warrant with less info...

 

[bushman13]

That Steele dossier was buttoned up, just ask Mueller.

Wait...he didn't remember the document, under oath.

Damn wiim, you could get a FISA warrant with less info...