Curious on your thinking behind #4. I’ve honestly never seen that opinion before.
I don’t think there is any way it would happen, but if archery or ML seasons were eliminated, total tag numbers (tags per elk in Will’s parlance) would be cut drastically, and thus, draw odds go way down, prices rise drastically (more demand and less supply)
I don't agree with removing archery season... but something to chew on:
Hunters complain about elk and deer on private, it was one of the arguments for changing the dates and widening the gaps in the seasons.
In CO the alpine tends to be public, wintering habitat private.
Elk will head to cover when pressured regardless of weather.
2005
195,089 - Rifle Elk tags
35,628 - Archery Elk tags
2020
148,615 -Rifle Elk tags
53,426 -Archery Elk tags
Rifle is composed of 4 seasons + late season private land only. Archery is an entire month.
I don't think it's unrealistic that weekends with the most hunters in the field are during archery season. It's also Sept so there are tons of recreational users + bear seasons, muzzy, etc.
Seems like there is at decent argument to be made that all that pressure is sending elk to private early in the fall and they are just staying there.
This fits with my experience on private land in CO... 2012 did see an elk till 4th season, last year saw elk second week of archery season.
Also for comparison... WY sold
73,961 total elk licenses last year.