Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

[VikingsGuy]

If your living on those shares, you lost it.

Please read point B.

If someone didn't execute on point B, then I would expect our "never use credit", "save or it's your fault", "pull yourself by your own bootstraps", "don't use my money to help people too dumb or lazy to manage their's" crowd will have no sympathy.

 

[rmauch20]

They already paid the FUTA, so are those that are still working...

Well, when you put it like that I don’t know what everybody’s worried about then the economy should be rolling right along because everyone’s getting $1200 a week. It shouldn’t really matter where they are getting the money from.
I going to call the experts and tell them buzz said the economic side of this should be no big deal. And all this worry over 20 to 30% unemployment is unnecessary because those taxes are already been paid. That should clear everything up. I should be back roaring along very soon!

 

[hossblur]

A super dated and overly simplistic view of how QE and other fed techniques work.

Yes. We saw the sophisticated way the Fed techniques worked about 11 years ago.

 

[BuzzH]

If your living on those shares, you lost it.

You need to slow down and READ, with your thinking cap on...

VikingsGuy is 100% correct, if you were within 5 years of retiring when this whole thing started, and weren't being a greedy bastard, you should have your allocation of assets secured in appropriate place where these kinds of market downturns wont impact your long term retirement goals.

If you were planning on retiring this year and were still gambling on markets continuing to be bullish until you die...well, you had it coming.

 

[BuzzH]

Well, when you put it like that I don’t know what everybody’s worried about then the economy should be rolling right along because everyone’s getting $1200 a week. It shouldn’t really matter where they are getting the money from.
I going to call the experts and tell them buzz said the economic side of this should be no big deal. And all this worry over 20 to 30% unemployment is unnecessary because those taxes are already been paid. That should clear everything up. I should be back roaring along very soon!

Everyone can be an expert in unchartered territory...even you.

There's no doubt in my mind that at least 50% of the "experts" are going to be dead wrong about this whole thing.

 

[ImBillT]

Just to take some hyperbole out of the 401k panic:

A. If you haven't sold shares you haven't lost anything
B. If you are retired or near retirement you should already have multiple years of expected draw in treasuries or other safe assets so you can allow you equities to rebound, so no realized loss if you set up your investments correctly.
C. The S&P500 is still above it's Dec 20, 2018 value and above anytime in history prior to Sept 2017, so let's not overstate the "losses" yet.

I completely agree with B, and that was my first thought. Unfortunately, not everyone handles their money correctly.

A is primarily philosophical. You’re talking about when you make your trades, and if everyone could trade at the perfect time, the market wouldn’t even function.

C is a nice way to make people feel a little better about where we are, but the true measure would be take where we are on 12/31/2020 and compare it to where we would have been without the shutdown. That is entirely unknowable, but the fact that it’s going to be lower than if it hadn’t happened is obvious.

The true economic cost of this shutdown has been TREMENDOUS, and the people hurt haven’t just been people who ran their businesses poorly or weren’t good at what they do. They were just the unlucky ones. There will be people and businesses who benefit considerably from this in the end, and although being a good business person will be part of it, they won’t be just be the ones that were the best at what they did or ran their businesses well. They too will be the lucky. And it’s all been at the hand of government rather than nature or the market. Whether the government has done things right or wrong, it’s still quite sad.

I only had a few K in the market, so it doesn’t matter much. I sold out shortly after our first case arrived. I’ve lost practically nothing.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I completely agree with B, and that was my first thought. Unfortunately, not everyone handles their money correctly.

A is primarily philosophical. You’re talking about when you make your trades, and if everyone could trade at the perfect time, the market wouldn’t even function.

C is a nice way to make people feel a little better about where we are, but the true measure would be take where we are on 12/31/2020 and compare it to where we would have been without the shutdown. That is entirely unknowable, but the fact that it’s going to be lower than if it hadn’t happened is obvious.

The true economic cost of this shutdown has been TREMENDOUS, and the people hurt haven’t just been people who ran their businesses poorly or weren’t good at what they do. They were just the unlucky ones. There will be people and businesses who benefit considerably from this in the end, and although being a good business person will be part of it, they won’t be just be the ones that were the best at what they did or ran their businesses well. They too will be the lucky. And it’s all been at the hand of government rather than nature or the market. Whether the government has done things right or wrong, it’s still quite sad.

A bunch of points I was not raising - I was specifically responding to the "public retirees have it easy but my family members roth has failed" comment.

 

[hossblur]

Lets bring it back around.

Buzz. Your older than me. How did wildlife conservation go from 29' to 42'? Lots of guzzlers built? Migration studies? Freeway overpasses? Not much poaching either I'm sure.

How big a check is Wyoming going to write to refund all those hunting license fees when hunts get cancelled?

How's Wyomings budgets looking with $20 oil, a pandemic?

 

[El Jason]

VikingsGuy is 100% correct, if you were within 5 years of retiring when this whole thing started, and weren't being a greedy bastard, you should have your allocation of assets secured in appropriate place where these kinds of market downturns wont impact your long term retirement goals.

I'll be the first to admit, i left some stuff in higher risk investments than I maybe should have. My retirement timeline is a fluid one, and likely just got pushed back a few years. Could be more depending on what happens with my wife's employment.

On a different line of thought, a friend of mine from high school lives in Ketchikan. He has invested heavily in rental real estate over the years, and put a lot of sweat equity into it. He freely admits he completely screwed the pooch by dumping nearly all of his profits back into his rental portfolio. Now, he's sitting on properties that can't and won't be rented for the near forseeable future. I pray daily he survives this.

 

[hossblur]

You need to slow down and READ, with your thinking cap on...

VikingsGuy is 100% correct, if you were within 5 years of retiring when this whole thing started, and weren't being a greedy bastard, you should have your allocation of assets secured in appropriate place where these kinds of market downturns wont impact your long term retirement goals.

If you were planning on retiring this year and were still gambling on markets continuing to be bullish until you die...well, you had it coming.

Market downturn? Your dollar will be useless. So unless your fed retirement is paid in gold or TP, you sir, will be one of those fools.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I'll be the first to admit, i left some stuff in higher risk investments than I maybe should have. My retirement timeline is a fluid one, and likely just got pushed back a few years. Could be more depending on what happens with my wife's employment.

On a different line of thought, a friend of mine from high school lives in Ketchikan. He has invested heavily in rental real estate over the years, and put a lot of sweat equity into it. He freely admits he completely screwed the pooch by dumping nearly all of his profits back into his rental portfolio. Now, he's sitting on properties that can't and won't be rented for the near forseeable future. I pray daily he survives this.

I do have empathy for hard working folks who get pounded through this. I just posted my remarks to encourage us to not all assume the worst by over focusing on unrealized losses - it doesn't help anyone and can lead to bad choices.

 

[BuzzH]

Lets bring it back around.

Buzz. Your older than me. How did wildlife conservation go from 29' to 42'? Lots of guzzlers built? Migration studies? Freeway overpasses? Not much poaching either I'm sure.

How big a check is Wyoming going to write to refund all those hunting license fees when hunts get cancelled?

How's Wyomings budgets looking with $20 oil, a pandemic?

I don't know, but I doubt many freeway over passes were being built over freeways that didn't exist in '29-'42...just a guess on my part.

Wyoming has a rainy day fund to fall back on, something Utah maybe should look into...but, your State, like most that live in it, spend well beyond their means.

Oil closed Friday at 28.34 a barrel on Friday...quit exaggerating and lying. Oil price has more to do with OPEC and the urination competition between Saudi and Russia...as well as consequences of "drill baby, drill" than a pandemic.

I'm surprised the price has stayed as high as it has, considering the glut of oil and reductions in demand.

As to the GF, they'll be fine.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Market downturn? Your dollar will be useless. So unless your fed retirement is paid in gold or TP, you sir, will be one of those fools.

you really don't understand modern economics - and nothing anyone here posts will change that - I just hope the silent readers of this thread just tune out your brand of hyperbole

 

[BuzzH]

Market downturn? Your dollar will be useless. So unless your fed retirement is paid in gold or TP, you sir, will be one of those fools.

Well hell, if the dollar is worthless, then stay home and shelter in place...no need to work for something that has no value...

 

[hossblur]

One day dad and I were working on a house.

Next day he had stage 4 lung cancer.

Point being, the BUZZ, JLS, Vikings of this forum are great theorists.

But like Mike Tyson said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"

We see it today. The gov that is going to protect us all. How's those small buisness loans working out? Epic failure, or just failure?

 

[hossblur]

I do have empathy for hard working folks who get pounded through this. I just posted my remarks to encourage us to not all assume the worst by over focusing on unrealized losses - it doesn't help anyone and can lead to bad choices.

10million folks are sitting looking at bad choices. I'd imagine 15million by next friday

 

[El Jason]

I do have empathy for hard working folks who get pounded through this. I just posted my remarks to encourage us to not all assume the worst by over focusing on unrealized losses - it doesn't help anyone and can lead to bad choices.

No, we're not panicking. In fact, I upped my deferred comp contribution by a few hundred a month.

 

[El Jason]

@hossblur I truly have no idea what point you are trying make, or what your desire is, other than the fact you are frustrated and angry. I'm sorry about your dad and I'm sorry about your business.

 

[rmauch20]

I do have empathy for hard working folks who get pounded through this. I just posted my remarks to encourage us to not all assume the worst by over focusing on unrealized losses - it doesn't help anyone and can lead to bad choices.

Hell no reason to buzz has clearly explained they are going to get 1200 a week. They will be fine.

 

[rmauch20]

No, we're not panicking. In fact, I upped my deferred comp contribution by a few hundred a month.

Same!