Can you out live point creep?

[AvidIndoorsman]

States don't release the ages of their max point group.

I'm curious to hear at what age everyone got in the game.

For the above poll, please list the age you were when you bought for first point for your highest OIL species that you still have yet to draw. Mostly looking for MSG, Deer and Elk only relevant if you have more than 15 points for one of those species.

Basically trying to figure out the age of youngest folks in the pyramid.

Are there some guys with 34 points who are in their 40s or 50s?

Sorry for being complicated, hopefully people get what I'm driving at.

 

[Dsnow9]

I don’t have 15 points yet so maybe I should take my vote out. I didn’t read the whole thing first. Sitting at 8,7,6 points for M,S,G as a CO resident.

 

[brushcreek]

No option for 30-35, I was 31

 

[Pucky Freak]

My current strategy is only points that turn into a tag I can obtain every 5 years or less. So that’s really not “playing the points game”

 

[Irrelevant]

17 or 18 here in WA for Mt Goat... I'm still at less than .1% odds.

 

[LCH]

My current strategy is only points that turn into a tag I can obtain every 5 years or less. So that’s really not “playing the points game”

Sure it is, that's called playing it smart.

 

[TOGIE]

does this data do you any good without knowing birth year or current age as well?

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

No option for 30-35, I was 31

Crap I can’t edit the choices just put 25-30 since it’s closer

 

[Schaaf]

I started applying out of state at 22. I'm still not sure if I'll catch the creep in some states.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

does this data do you any good without knowing birth year or current age as well?

Broad strokes.

My hypothesis is that most people dive into points systems been ages 22-40. So to get the average age of current point holders in any system just add 30 to the number of points.

 

[buffybr]

I only apply in my home state of Montana. I currently have maximum bonus points for Moose, Sheep, and Goats. I've been unsuccessfully applying every year since 1978 for a Goat, 1983 for a Sheep, and 1988 for a Moose. I'm 74.

 

[Dsnow9]

I only apply in my home state of Montana. I currently have maximum bonus points for Moose, Sheep, and Goats. I've been unsuccessfully applying every year since 1978 for a Goat, 1983 for a Sheep, and 1988 for a Moose. I'm 74.

We are all screwed! I guess we just need to look at annual application fees as donations to the state wildlife, it’s the only lotto I’m willing to play!

 

[TOGIE]

Broad strokes.

My hypothesis is that most people dive into points systems been ages 22-40. So to get the average age of current point holders in any system just add 30 to the number of points.

walk my poor brain through that assumption

based off the average age of hunters? that doesn't work in my mind

based off the average age of PP systems? that would work in my mind. edit: wait nevermind, add 30 to number of points is what you're saying? how do we know their points?

or?

 

[rmyoung1]

Started in 2003 as a 25-year-old, so I’m playing into your assumptions, @wllm1313

It would be super interesting if states listed the average age of the applicants at each point level.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

does this data do you any good without knowing birth year or current age as well?

Broad strokes.

My hypothesis is that most people dive into points systems been ages 22-40. So to get the average age of current point holders in any system just add 30 to the number of points.

walk my poor brain through that assumption

based off the average age of hunters? that doesn't work in my mind

based off the average age of PP systems? that would work in my mind. edit: wait nevermind, add 30 to number of points is what you're saying? how do we know their points?

or?

Work it the other way.

Average life expectancy of a male in the US is 76.

Consider how are the max point hunts actually are, some are easy some are very difficult.

Assuming an easy hunt, max hunt age is 76, moderate 70, very difficult 65.

Then subtract average starting point for point buying let’s say 25.

Points for a easy hunt will max out at 51, 45, and 40 for the three types.

Therefore to beat the creep by outliving it in say, CO you have to live to have 51 points to get guarantee a unit 10 tag.

Bonus point systems won’t be a guarantee. Lottery doesn’t matter at all.

Lots of factors influence the draw, and some hunts have so few tags a couple of outliers can screw stuff up, but my guess is pref points systems will generally max out around 50pts.

 

[madtom]

Lots of factors influence the draw, and some hunts have so few tags a couple of outliers can screw stuff up, but my guess is pref points systems will generally max out around 50pts.

You can also reach this conclusion by taking the age someone must be before beginning to accumulate points (~11 in WY) and subtracting that from the approximate age someone would age out. Should also get you between 50-60 points max. The folks (like me) who didn't start until almost age 30 will tap out with about 20 fewer points than that.

 

[TOGIE]

Broad strokes.

My hypothesis is that most people dive into points systems been ages 22-40. So to get the average age of current point holders in any system just add 30 to the number of points.


Work it the other way.

Average life expectancy of a male in the US is 76.

Consider how are the max point hunts actually are, some are easy some are very difficult.

Assuming an easy hunt, max hunt age is 76, moderate 70, very difficult 65.

Then subtract average starting point for point buying let’s say 25.

Points for a easy hunt will max out at 51, 45, and 40 for the three types.

Therefore to beat the creep by outliving it in say, CO you have to live to have 51 points to get guarantee a unit 10 tag.

Bonus point systems won’t be a guarantee. Lottery doesn’t matter at all.

Lots of factors influence the draw, and some hunts have so few tags a couple of outliers can screw stuff up, but my guess is pref points systems will generally max out around 50pts.

woof

I need to think about that more with better sleep and no hard seltzer in my blood

 

[Bluffgruff]

My plan is to play the points game, stay in shape, hope for the best, but budget for tags that can still be bought before I'm too old to do it the hard way.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

You can also reach this conclusion by taking the age someone must be before beginning to accumulate points (~11 in WY) and subtracting that from the approximate age someone would age out. Should also get you between 50-60 points max. The folks (like me) who didn't start until almost age 30 will tap out with about 20 fewer points than that.

You can also reach this conclusion by taking the age someone must be before beginning to accumulate points (~11 in WY) and subtracting that from the approximate age someone would age out. Should also get you between 50-60 points max. The folks (like me) who didn't start until almost age 30 will tap out with about 20 fewer points than that.

Yeah I imagine that folks that start from birth MT, and 11 Wy are huge outliers. Interesting to see what the poll shows esp, as HTers tend to be 1% hunters.

Aside, I signed up my nephew for his MT ALS number the day he was born and got #2... some dad or grandpa must have been in the freaking delivery room doing it lol

 

[Dan O]

I have 19 points on the current system for Sheep. I had a number of points from the previous point system and they went out the window. Pretty frustrating!!!!