Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Bonasababy]

What sectors do you believe will benefit and lose ground?

No crystal ball here but I'd focus harder on things that could be hurt by new regulations, or simply enforcing existing ones.

They have declined a bit after a hot run but international still has more room to grow and might be less effected.

AI is getting a lot of pressure to regulate...

 

[Bonasababy]

Sure. We have been condition to do that over the last 40+ years. It has become an even greater selling point for FAs in the last 20, "Just Buy stocks, they almost always go up". Even Buffett says just buy stocks and don't look at your statements. That fine, but these same people will scream "buy the dip!" if it falls 2%. If I'm 100% in stocks, buy it with what?

I have asked this question before and almost no one answers - At what point does the yield on a bond become attractive? 10yr at 5% now. 5.5%, 6%, 7%? The scary part of this whole thing is Americans don't want to fund their own debt because they like the stock market. Something will break eventually.

Bonds are your safety net IMO. I like them to make at least enough to beat inflation though, preferably a few points more.

Most of my career funds were my only reasonable retirement plan option. I used balanced funds with a solid history to cover most of the bond portion rather than bond funds. The rest usually in a bond income fund. FAGIX did well for a lot of years.

I miss the days when muni funds could get you 8-9%. Few here probably remember that.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

I have asked this question before and almost no one answers - At what point does the yield on a bond become attractive? 10yr at 5% now. 5.5%, 6%, 7%? The scary part of this whole thing is Americans don't want to fund their own debt because they like the stock market. Something will break eventually.

For me it would depend on the size of my nest egg. That number would have to be well north of $1M to allocate even 10% of my current portfolio to that. I’m only 38, so 20-30 years from hopeful retirement.

Sacrificing the *hopefully* best/biggest years of growth from now until then is not worth the risk mitigation to me at this point.

58 year old me with $1M+ will hopefully be prudent to take advantage of the higher rates (should they even be there by then). But I’d also argue that even 5% is not keeping up with true, felt inflation the past 5 years.

It all depends on individual goals. For me I think to allocate a significant portion into bonds would necessitate I’m no longer seeking growth and have moved to maintain or even draw down responsibly.