Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[VikingsGuy]

So true.
But maxing out employers 401k match and funding your 401k to the limit is a great way to save for retirement. This is also what a good stock broker/wealth management person is for.

Fair enough, but for my 2 cents - unless you need active tax management (which you don’t for 401k), most folks are best served with a few low load funds/etfs that get you SP500, and bond mix. Hell, a single age targeted fund will serve the average American very well with out the fees. Again, the math is undeniable, almost zero active managers can ever beat the market enough to cover their load. Of course when you get to 8 digits it is a whole other ball game - a game I will never be burdened to play.

 

[VikingsGuy]

If you wanna do really well via some very specific prescience, get elected to congress...easy peasy.

Are you investing with Martha Stewart again?

 

[RSET]

Fair enough, but for my 2 cents - unless you need active tax management (which you don’t for 401k), most folks are best served with a few low load funds/etfs that get you SP500, and bond mix. Hell, a single age targeted fund will serve the average American very well with out the fees. Again, the math is undeniable, almost zero active managers can ever beat the market enough to cover their load. Of course when you get to 8 digits it is a whole other ball game - a game I will never be burdened to play.

You mean its tough to beat this?

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

I agree there are ways to reduce risk, but if one has to ask which ones they are is probably already in over their head. We live in a country that a majority of folks don’t even save enough to max out their employer 401k match and that don’t realize that math proves you can’t consistently time markets. 99% of folks just need to follow the Vanguard way.

I completely agree and we who have time shouldn’t fight the Vanguard way because we’ll lose. Yet many do hold singular investments in say tech because it’ll never fail, sky’s the limit! Meanwhile RSI goes 75, 80, spikes 90. Things go up over time in a series of setbacks. Well to them I say get those puts in place and cash, never margin options.

 

[RSET]

Totally not worth it! Guess I will keep underperforming

You can also see their trading activity…hint hint

 

[trackerbacker]

You can also see their trading activity…hint hint

Late/delayed/amended a good chunk of it, though as a barometer and navigational charts, yes it's a good deal.

thank God for quants, csvs and strong skills in the 'sheets'.

 

[trackerbacker]

Does appear im back to brokering a deal on the horizon in land development category.

New highways are few and far between, making new exits and new c-stores and new non-HO commercial (especially on NNN basis) my new position.

Mind your P's and Q's for the greater fool

 

[Yetified_Mayhem]

Market not in a spot I invest. Rising wedges, terrible breadth etc etc. But that's just my system. I own a few names like $SMCI $NVDA and the ETF $SMH #SOXL in trading accounts, but I have been cutting heaps. My indicators are stretched to upside. As for investing, I dont need single stock risk and will ETF invest again on next $SPY --20%. I also buy on weekly RSI oversold, below weekly Keltners (if down more than 20%). I buy off 200W SMA. I'll buy a 10 30W SMA cross to upside as a last add. I've traded for a long time and still would never put a single name in my retirement port. I don't want to feel emotional at earnings calls, balance sheets, court cases, gov intervention, no thanks, I know I can't. JUST MY SYSTEM, there's tons of opinions and many of them lose money. Biggest mistake folks make is trading their investments, gotta stick to rules based system. Good Luck!!

 

[Yetified_Mayhem]

I do like the strategy of just putting 10% into something risky like BTC or single stocks. My problem with single stocks is; so you bought Nvidia in 2005, or Tesla in 2010 or so, Apple Microsoft etc, and you did well. What did you do with your losers? With a massive winner you may have wiped out those losers, but usually its the other way around. Its a lot of work and brains to spot fundamental changes within the company, especially without a team of PHDs and access that hedge funds have. Can you identify loss of market share before them? Do you know the CEO and management's life story? Can you predict the rise of future demand and growth for the companies? Big winning companies keep growing, the second that stops they are either a failure or the next boring stock underperforming indices. Some I know are great at this, but most have no edge and just see these big winners in hindsight. They don't see all the stocks that were all the hype and went to $0. If I was into this risk, I'd keep it simple and I'd stick with boring healthcare/providers and obesity drug companies. Boomers are aging and people will always need healthcare. The ETFs have always outperformed the $SPY. But for stupid me, its just $VHT $IHF and a little bit of biotech $IBB $XBI instead of single company risk.. Stay safe out there.

 

[jryoung]

My quote from 2.23.2023

Meanwhile, has anyone seen Draft Day with Kevin Costner? I feel like him with Nvidia written on a note in my hand. I told myself 13 years ago when I cleared my independence with them that I would invest....still haven't bought a single share (outside my 401k funds). Stupid

(Insert uncomfortable laugh)

 

[Exhausted]

My quote from 2.23.2023


(Insert uncomfortable laugh)

View attachment 314727

How about this for a recent misstep? Sold SMCI on 12/22/23 for $292/share.



Compared to today. . . I'm glad it was only 8 shares. And I still made a profit from when I bought in August 2023 for $269.

 

[RSET]

How about this for a recent misstep? Sold SMCI on 12/22/23 for $292/share.

View attachment 314745

Compared to today. . . I'm glad it was only 8 shares. And I still made a profit from when I bought in August 2023 for $269.
View attachment 314746

That stings

 

[Flatrock]

Some of these names are making AMC and GME look like good investments.

Which ones don't you like? You talking bad for one month out or 3 years out?

I think at some point investors will say "Great story, now show me the money".

For the chip companies or the companies that buy them? I don't follow all those companies but Nvidia's earnings have been monster blowouts the past few quarters.

 

[SAJ-99]

For the chip companies or the companies that buy them? I don't follow all those companies but Nvidia's earnings have been monster blowouts the past few quarters.

Mostly the companies that buy them. It trickles down from there.

(Edit: hit the button too fast) Companies right now jump by just mentioning AI and all the wonderful things it's going to do for them. It kind of reminds me of a hunting product - I got this new call, or new gun, or new decoy. The vision for what it is going to do is rarely matched by real life.

 

[westbranch]

I bought a penny stock. I don't gamble at all so 5,000 shares seemed like a good use of some fun money.

 

[Flatrock]

Companies right now jump by just mentioning AI and all the wonderful things it's going to do for them.

A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in these names. Just can't tell you when that will be.

Yes that's true about some companies popping on AI news. Kind of like anything blockchain related a few years ago. Dangerous game to play there.

A lot of semi companies have made a ton of money for people though and I think will continue to do so going ahead. Maybe not in the next 3-6 months after this recent run but it's hard to be negative on them this decade.

 

[Flatrock]

It is though also time to buy long puts here as high as you can afford. RSI 90% or better is a failsafe fail indicator.

So what strike price and expiration should we be buying?

 

[Cornbread]

Word of advice, options strategies can be very costly, and I would term them risky. You need to be very quantitative , and most definitely have use of an options model, and make sure it is the "right" model. Time decay can kill ya. Ive never used options because of the time decay. Time decay is directly affected by implied volatility; the cost of insurance. I ran a major hedge desk at two large financial institutions. I don't like losing money, and that's where time decay can kill ya. The only way I'd even dance with options is to buy Way out of the money options. You have to be a very sophisticated investor/financial institution to sell options. And way out of the money options can kill ya because of the lack of liquidity. Just my own personal experience. If you think I'm FOS, then you haven't thought about using options all the way through.

I basically think that because these politicians are so actively involved in the economy (we invited them in) that normal economic models are breaking down. Interest rates "should" be significantly higher. Inflation is not dead. So predicting an outcome is significantly harder the past 10 years. My take.

 

[TOGIE]

yeesh, most people buy a call or put cause they didn't find something they liked better on draftkings the night before.

no lectures on risk or analysis necessary because neither are taken into account when many decide to roll the dice with some fun money pre earnings report.

 

[Cornbread]

I do like the strategy of just putting 10% into something risky like BTC or single stocks. My problem with single stocks is; so you bought Nvidia in 2005, or Tesla in 2010 or so, Apple Microsoft etc, and you did well. What did you do with your losers? With a massive winner you may have wiped out those losers, but usually its the other way around. Its a lot of work and brains to spot fundamental changes within the company, especially without a team of PHDs and access that hedge funds have. Can you identify loss of market share before them? Do you know the CEO and management's life story? Can you predict the rise of future demand and growth for the companies? Big winning companies keep growing, the second that stops they are either a failure or the next boring stock underperforming indices. Some I know are great at this, but most have no edge and just see these big winners in hindsight. They don't see all the stocks that were all the hype and went to $0. If I was into this risk, I'd keep it simple and I'd stick with boring healthcare/providers and obesity drug companies. Boomers are aging and people will always need healthcare. The ETFs have always outperformed the $SPY. But for stupid me, its just $VHT $IHF and a little bit of biotech $IBB $XBI instead of single company risk.. Stay safe out there.

Excellent point. That's called survivor bias. You only see the ones that survive. You never track the deadbeats. That's true with money manager's records too. They never show you the accounts that haven't done shit.