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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

This is the painful truth and China knows we lack the cojones to tighten our belts as raise taxes so will end up doing neither and the train wreck continues until we are Argentina with runaway inflation and no way to cover old debt except to print more money thus devaluing that debt PLUS devalues all those fixed dollar pensions and annuities which do not inflation-adjust.

China will just wait until we can no longer fund foreign wars and new technology-based offensive weapons. This is what America did to the Soviet Union under Ronnie.

China can build 30x the volume of ships as we can now. That is similar to WWII when we had a similar advantage in ship-building over Japan and we just wore down the Japanese fleet carrier by carrier and transport by transport.

China has infrastructure issues and population issues yet barring a collapse of the one-party autocratic system, China merely needs to wait another 50 years. They have a long history so 50 years is not very long to them.
We beat Japan in decisive naval victories early in the war, with our existing naval fleet early in the war. Yamamoto realized immediately their blunder in not full filling the mission of destroying our air craft carriers. Japan relied on an outdated “decisive victory” mind set of ww1 and failed to execute. Plus stretched their existing resources to thin on multiple fronts across the pacific. Hardly relative to today’s US fleet, of which Im certain is 20 years ahead, like we were in ww2

I’ll defer from comment on some armchair geoeconomics.

I bought LLY today.
 
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Are there no socialist think tanks or would you rather not mention them?
I was speaking to the economics side of things. There are some left leaning I guess, but spending money is a bipartisan sport. It’s the tax cuts that usually require the torturing of models and mental gymnastics to get them to work.
 
Yes. Exactly. If has a 3 or 5 handle, it sure as hell will matter.

So what is option expiration telling you this month?
I think Friday shows the 10yr yield doesn’t matter to anyone other than speculators betting on its reaction to a piece of news.

Next week the hedge flows stop. Friday is triple expiration. You have an open window for fireworks. Doesn’t mean it happens. Just think of it as a dry forest waiting for a spark.
 
Have 7 stocks to buy, waiting on the fed and cpi report wed.. Went backdoor, longterm on Ai. Utility, copper, cooling and servers.
 
I think Friday shows the 10yr yield doesn’t matter to anyone other than speculators betting on its reaction to a piece of news.

Next week the hedge flows stop. Friday is triple expiration. You have an open window for fireworks. Doesn’t mean it happens. Just think of it as a dry forest waiting for a spark.
Light it up!
 
OK thought I would dive in. US GDP in 23 was 27.36 trillion according to the governments Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The congressional budget office said our expenditures in 23 were 6.1 trillion. Of that, 3.8 trillion was spent on things that can't be cut without major action, mostly social security and medicare benefits. 1.7 Trillion was what they called "discretionary" spending that could be more simply cut.

Now back to the Center for American Progress (FAR from a non-partisan group by the way).

2.1 percent of GDP is around 574 billion. Which in turn is about a third of ALL government spending on things other than social security, medicare etc.

That amount of cutting is just not reasonable or even feasible, UNLESS you substantially cut social security and medicare benefits too. Pick most any spending program some might call wastefull/not needed--you could cut most all of them and still not make much of a dent.

On the other hand, the Brookings Insitute--about as centrist as a think tank can get--said if we don't repeal the large 2017 tax cuts we will add another 3,8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, and take the federal debt--which is at 100 percent of the GDP now--to 211 percent in 30 years.


It's a numbers game. Social Security and Medicare represent such a huge portion of our expenditures that its impossible to cut our way to reversing the debt--but on the other hand, restoring former tax rates would have a much bigger impact.

Right now our 34 trillion debt at around 3% interest is costing us 1 trillion a year. That is not "discretionary" spending either. Wait till it gets to 5% and the debt balloons to 50 trillion. Not going to be taxing our way out of that.
 
I don't own individual stocks, but admit when Elon said owners of TSLA would get preference if Starlink went public I was intrigued. If it's share-for-share though still wouldn't do it.
 
I think Friday shows the 10yr yield doesn’t matter to anyone other than speculators betting on its reaction to a piece of news.

Next week the hedge flows stop. Friday is triple expiration. You have an open window for fireworks. Doesn’t mean it happens. Just think of it as a dry forest waiting for a spark.
More worried about what's going on in europe. Seems like a lot of others are too.

There are a lot of old standby metrics of pending doom that have been blown by in the last 5 years or so. The interesting thing is the economy is generally doing quite well--a lot better than people thing--the reality for some with prices doesn't seem to match that but their wages have gone up (on average).

We tend to think back only so far for our comparisons. Todays interest rates are sky high for recent history but several decades back or so we lived with them and worse at times for some years. Same with other economic measures.
 
We beat Japan in decisive naval victories early in the war, with our existing naval fleet early in the war. Yamamoto realized immediately their blunder in not full filling the mission of destroying our air craft carriers. Japan relied on an outdated “decisive victory” mind set of ww1 and failed to execute. Plus stretched their existing resources to thin on multiple fronts across the pacific. Hardly relative to today’s US fleet, of which Im certain is 20 years ahead, like we were in ww2

I’ll defer from comment on some armchair geoeconomics.

I bought LLY today.
When we have about 6 carriers circa 1942 and were facing about 8 Japanese carriers, we got lucky in head to head battles. Coral Sea and Midway could have ended much differently if a scout plane drifts a few miles to one side or the other.

Today's technology is different. Industrial capacity has shifted so America is not the dominant powerhouse of the world. China is now. We can have the best technology by 20 years in some aspects. I would argue Germany possessed the best technology in WWII other than in atomic bomb research and implementation. Did not end well for them as they ran out of replacement soldiers and supplies.

America can not win this long game. All countries can lose if we turn vast stretches of the Earth radioactive though we can't win. China will own out debt and take Taiwan without firing a shot as some American version of Chamberlain proclaims Peace in our Time.
 
Anyone have any thoughts on lithium stocks? LAC, ABL, ALTM and many others have taken a beating, certainly electric cars are a bit of a drag, but the global forecast for lithium demand is pretty hard to ignore. Is this potentially "a rising tide lifts all boats" moment, or could alternative technologies sweep in and temper demand?

Screenshot 2024-06-11 at 12.20.21 PM.png
 
Anyone have any thoughts on lithium stocks? LAC, ABL, ALTM and many others have taken a beating, certainly electric cars are a bit of a drag, but the global forecast for lithium demand is pretty hard to ignore. Is this potentially "a rising tide lifts all boats" moment, or could alternative technologies sweep in and temper demand?

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My thought is that they have taken enough of my money at this point. I wish you well lol.
 
Anyone have any thoughts on lithium stocks? LAC, ABL, ALTM and many others have taken a beating, certainly electric cars are a bit of a drag, but the global forecast for lithium demand is pretty hard to ignore. Is this potentially "a rising tide lifts all boats" moment, or could alternative technologies sweep in and temper demand?

View attachment 329370
Always concerned over battery banks. The rate of tech advance seems to outpace companies with the fundamental base for a specific battery source.

I was burned by DFLY so my bitterness may shine more than necessary for this topic. 🙃
 
Always concerned over battery banks. The rate of tech advance seems to outpace companies with the fundamental base for a specific battery source.

I was burned by DFLY so my bitterness may shine more than necessary for this topic. 🙃

Lost a few bucks with DFLY too, that's why I'm thinking broader than a finished product like the DFLY batteries. Feels like the risk, is some new technology to offset lithium demand, or new process/player that could source new lithium that could upset someone like LAC.
 
Anybody else in on the short squeeze on GME? Bought a handful of long calls yesterday, planning to ride this thing out with roaring kitty. Hopefully I can get a sheep hunt out of the deal LOL. YOLO
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Anybody else in on the short squeeze on GME? Bought a handful of long calls yesterday, planning to ride this thing out with roaring kitty. Hopefully I can get a sheep hunt out of the deal LOL. YOLO
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Don't go anywhere near the meme stocks myself. Can't get behind these stocks when the fundamentals are so terrible for the valuation
 
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