Wyoming point creep. How bad will it be for the NR elk draw this year?

[perma]

I haven’t heard, but any discussion on why did they scrapped the original regions and reduced it down to three? Seems the original proposal would have given G&F more flexibility at managing NR hunters.

If you look at the eastern-most district, it’s mostly private land. That’s what the outfitters wanted.

 

[Wy Guy]

Sounds like a war on NR but the blame seems misplaced. NR are capped and that cap hasn’t increased. Seems to just be greed at this point. I don’t hear any complaints about residents not being able to get elk tags, a deer tag or two, and some pronghorn tags.

I know several folks who are not getting tags that they have drawn for years, and they complain about it.

 

[SAJ-99]

From my reading of this years NR Gen elk tag draw odds there was a .5 point creep from last year. It look 4 points last year to guarantee a tag in the random part of the draw and this year it was 4.5 points. I’m amazed that with all the media attention and WY elk regulation changes (regions and price increase) that the creep was so low. I guess it shows how most people don’t really have an application plan and just buy points or apply when they can?

By my calc the jump was over 1pt in both Reg and Spec.

2023
reg
4pt 8.74% (so essentially 4.92pts)
Spec
4pt 28.98% (4.71pts)

2022
Reg
<4 12.34% (4pt was 100% but calc is essentially the same, you needed 3.88pts)
Spec
3 45.53% (3.55pts)

Someone can argue if they think the conversion of a prob to a static fraction is not right, but if consistent it should be fine and it works well in modeling. I also think this is the largest jump ever.

 

[SAJ-99]

But the trend has been pretty steady, point creep is about 0.5pt per year. I put a bunch of things in my spreadsheet and my estimate is a jump of over a point, but that would be a huge jump.

Not that anyone else cares but me. I will take a victory lap now.

 

[Nick87]

I also think this is the largest jump ever.

For now

 

[SAJ-99]

For now

Truth. 18264 people with 4pts going into the draw. We cleared 233 of them (101 reg, 132 spec) with general tags. Depressing. It looks like more and more people will be relying on the random draw or they will die with those elk points, unless they choose to hunt cow elk. WY goes to 90/10 and the odds get twice as bad. We all need to ask ourselves if we are playing a game we will never win and if it is worth it, for every state.

 

[cgasner1]

Guys like me are the problem I’ll just patiently wait. I’ll give Wyoming it’s 50 bucks a year. Then when it works for me I’ll draw a phenomenal tag and kill a giant bull. After that they won’t get any more from me I’ve waited this long already and have more than enough stuff to hunt each fall

 

[Nick87]

Oh FFS with this again.

 

[jlong17]

Everyone is looking for those big bull tags, but I am over here trying to find a quality cow hunt that I can consistently do every year with my family. I have yet to find that hunt. I was hoping this year would be the start of a new tradition of cow elk hunting each fall in the same area I got my elk last year.... no luck. Total bummer. It does seems that I am being cornered into an annual private land cow tag... but I refuse to give in hahah

 

[WildWill]

You guys can keep your once a decade bull tag! I'll gladly burn my points on a primo cow tag every couple years.

 

[Treeshark]

It will be interesting to review after next year with the changes coming. Guessing the special draw odds will get a little easier, but at point I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[RunNGunSC]

I know several folks who are not getting tags that they have drawn for years, and they complain about it.

But that isn’t because of an increase in NR. As I said, the blame is misplaced.

 

[Archer86]

It will be interesting to review after next year with the changes coming. Guessing the special draw odds will get a little easier, but at point I wouldn’t bet on it.

Next year will be very interesting I don't think much changes. With the sheer number of people with 4 points alone this year now moving up to 5 I bet we see creep comparable to this year in the special and maybe more in the regular

 

[Wy Guy]

But that isn’t because of an increase in NR. As I said, the blame is misplaced.

Fair point. With tags being reduced every year maybe it is time to reduce the elk/deer/lope percent to NR to help ensure R's get tags.

It is not that NR are the problem (although there are arguments about private land getting leased up for their use that locals used to hunt, thats a seperate issue) it is the tag reductions while giving a large percent to NR.

 

[cgasner1]

Fair point. With tags being reduced every year maybe it is time to reduce the elk/deer/lope percent to NR to help ensure R's get tags.

It is not that NR are the problem (although there are arguments about private land getting leased up for their use that locals used to hunt, thats a seperate issue) it is the tag reductions while giving a large percent to NR.

At some point and time if you can mt find something to shot as a resident of Wyoming maybe check the mirror

 

[WapitiBob]

By my calc the jump was over 1pt in both Reg and Spec.

2023
reg
4pt 8.74% (so essentially 4.92pts)
Spec
4pt 28.98% (4.71pts)

2022
Reg
<4 12.34% (4pt was 100% but calc is essentially the same, you needed 3.88pts)
Spec
3 45.53% (3.55pts)

Someone can argue if they think the conversion of a prob to a static fraction is not right, but if consistent it should be fine and it works well in modeling. I also think this is the largest jump ever.

2022 special gen was 100% with 3.1667 or more
2022 regular gen was 100% with 3.7500 or more

 

[Wy Guy]

At some point and time if you can mt find something to shot as a resident of Wyoming maybe check the mirror

Can't shoot anything if you don't have a tag.

 

[SAJ-99]

2022 special gen was 100% with 3.1667 or more
2022 regular gen was 100% with 3.7500 or more

Just going off what I can find published.

 

[Slm864]

Everyone is looking for those big bull tags, but I am over here trying to find a quality cow hunt that I can consistently do every year with my family. I have yet to find that hunt. I was hoping this year would be the start of a new tradition of cow elk hunting each fall in the same area I got my elk last year.... no luck. Total bummer. It does seems that I am being cornered into an annual private land cow tag... but I refuse to give in hahah

I hear ya. I’ve been fortunate enough hunting bulls but I’m just as happy to have a great cow hunt anymore. Hopefully moving forward things get better!

 

[cgasner1]

Can't shoot anything if you don't have a tag.

I’m pretty sure your state actually offers more tags than mine to you as a resident and I live in Montana. We probably have you beat in the doe tag department. Wyoming just doesn’t give you 3 months like we get.