WY PP Going Into 2010

[MNHunter]

For those of you that follow these things, WY updated the PP totals for all sportsmen going into the 2010 draw:

Elk, Deer, & Antelope:
http://gf.state.wy.us/downloads/pdf/TotalPreferencePointsEDA2009.pdf

Sheep & Moose:
http://gf.state.wy.us/downloads/pdf/TotalPreferencePointsMS2009.pdf

You can check your point total here:
http://gf.state.wy.us/drawresults/frmsearch.aspx

 

[Oak]

Over 2500 non-residents with more sheep and moose points than me. Kinda depressing....

 

[Bambistew]

I can't believe how few residents have points for deer/elk/lope!

Only $1.5 mill worth of point fee's collected from NR for the moose and sheep... Not a bad haul considering they didnt' have to do much to get it.

 

[MNHunter]

Oak, I hear ya. That means you have 7 or 8 points?. Hang in there. I've read the models people use over on MM and I personally think they're pessimistic. I have no science to back it up but I think A LOT of the point holders are older and the drop out rates will go up. Since the $100 increase a few years ago, your class (assuming you have 7) has seen 500 people ahead of you drop out from 07-08 and another 300 from 08-09.

Good luck this year

 

[MNHunter]

Bambi, I dont think they have points for residents...the people on the list must have moved to WY after they garnered points as a NR

 

[Oak]

Yeah, I'm definitely sticking it out with my 7 points. Can't draw if you don't play. I need to make a spreadsheet that shows annual attrition, as that usually makes it look better. I did that for moose, sheep and goat in Colorado, and now I actually believe I may get a moose tag in the next 10 years or so.

Correct, those residents with points are former non-residents.

 

[MNHunter]

I have the data going back to the 2005 draw on excel if you want it, I can email to you

 

[Oak]

Sweet, hook me up if you don't mind.

colorado.oak at gmail.com

 

[MNHunter]

No problem, email sent

 

[justdada]

MNH,
According to your spreadsheet, how long do you figure for me to draw with 9 points for sheep?
You guys have me curious now...

 

[MNHunter]

Theres a guy on MM that says a person w 9 points would draw between 2022-2028. i'm not sure what attrition rate he is using but your class has dropped dropped roughly 10 pecent each year with the exception of the year they jacked the feee up to $100, your class saw a drop of 35%. Im no statitician but I think a 10% attrition rate would put you in line for the estimate above. The two big wild cards that no one can predict are what changes WY has in store for PP system and what effect does the aging demographic of the point holders have on the #s? IMHO, WY will tinker with their plan and possibly screw a lot of people and I believe the point holders are older and each passing year will help those of us not at the top of the point pyramid.

 

[schmalts]

speaking of sheep odds, has anyone had the time to look and see what change in odds NM had this year with the pay up front apps? I heard the data was out but no time to look.

 

[Oak]

speaking of sheep odds, has anyone had the time to look and see what change in odds NM had this year with the pay up front apps? I heard the data was out but no time to look.

2008: 5,609 non-resident applications
2009: 2,379 non-resident applications

 

[schmalts]

2008: 5,609 non-resident applications
2009: 2,379 non-resident applications

Hmmmmm. I told myself I would give it up in NM if the odds didn't double. That is pretty close to over double I guess and it looks like I may have to apply again.